Beating the Book: NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS Picks for every game, every week.

After scuffling our way to a semi-respectable showing in Week 1, we had ourselves a strong Week 2, going 12-4 ATS and 12-4 SU with our NFL picks.

Picking against Indiana Jones and the Indianapolis Colts at home will go down as a blunder, as was trusting the Arizona Cardinals to salt away a three-score lead in the fourth quarter against what may be the worst team in the NFL. 

With the Lions putting a beatdown on the Bears, we moved to 2-0 in our best bets, so let's try to keep the train rolling this week.

NFL Week 3 packs an interesting slate that begins with most-lopsided number of the week, with the Bills currently sitting as 11.5-point home favorites against Miami. Green Bay is also a big road favorite in Cleveland, while the Bucs and Seahawks are each currently giving at least a touchdown (without the extra-point), as of publication.

We do have some notable quarterback injuries to consider heading into Week 3.  Mac Jones may still filling in for Brock Purdy, while Jake Browning will take the reins from Joe Burrow in Cincinnati for an extended period. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels is unlikely to play this week due to a sprained knee, and the Vikings will roll with Carson Wentz after J.J. McCarthy sustained a high-ankle sprain on Sunday night. The Jets will also be without Justin Fields, who sustained a concussion in Week 2. That means it's Tyrod Taylor time.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 3 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 2:

Lions -5.5 vs. Bears: The Lions' offense bounced back in a major way to make our best bet of the week a relaxing watch.

Bengals -3.5 vs. Jaguars: I'll happily admit the Bengals had no business winning – let alone covering – this game, but successful NFL handicapping is all about knowing when to fade the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Worst calls of Week 2:

Broncos -1.5 at Colts: If there are late-game field goal shenanigans at play, you can just assume we're on the wrong side.

Texans -2.5 vs. Buccaneers: Houston's defense did its job for most of the night before allowing an 80-yard touchdown drive on Tampa Bay's final possession. 

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Last week: 12-4-0 ATS; 12-4 SU; best bet won (DET -5.5)

On the season: 19-12-1 ATS; 23-9 SU; 2-0 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -11.5

Total: 49.5

We kick off Week 3 with our biggest spread of the week – and perhaps rightfully so. In desperate need of a win, the Dolphins found a way to lose at home to the Patriots in Week 2, despite a 315-yard day from Tua Tagovailoa and a 6-109 line from Tyreek Hill. Turnovers continue to be a major issue for Miami, as does a defense that's generated just two true stops through two weeks.

The Bills easily took care of business against the Jets, relying on the running game and a strong defensive showing to completely shut down New York. Buffalo took its foot off the gas in the second half but still won the yardage battle 403 to 154.

Buffalo does have some key injuries on the defensive side, so don't be surprised if Miami is able to move the ball a bit better than we might expect. Still, the Bills have owned the Dolphins in the Josh Allen era, going 13-2 SU (8-0 at home). Miami hasn't won SU at Buffalo since 2016.

The Dolphins' backs could not be more up against the wall, but this could be a "name your score" game for the Bills.

The pick: Bills 37 – Dolphins 24

Sunday Early Slate

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Falcons -5.5

Total: 43.5

In last week's article, we gave this out as a look-ahead, targeting Atlanta -1.5. With the Falcons taking care of business against Minnesota – and more so Carolina struggling yet again – the number is up to 5.5 across the board.

Sunday night wasn't a sexy win, but the Falcons were able to control the game on the ground with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier after both struggled in Week 1. Neither back had a carry of more than six yards against Tampa Bay, but Robinson alone had eight carries of at least seven yards on Sunday night. The Falcons now get to face what may be the worst defense in the NFL, so I expect to see the playbook opened back up.

On the other side, Carolina gets some credit for rallying back against Arizona, but the damage was already done early on, as Bryce Young turned the ball over twice before the Cardinals even ran an offensive play. Carolina also lost two starting offensive linemen in Week 2 – a major problem against what looks to be a vastly improved Falcons pass rush.

The pick: Falcons 28 – Panthers 21

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Packers -8.5

Total: 42.5

Are the Packers the best team in the NFL? Many are asking. Even after the Eagles walked out of Arrowhead with a win on Sunday, it's Green Bay that has the shortest odds to win the NFC (+330) and is now +650 to win the Super Bowl. Only Baltimore (5/1) and Buffalo (+425) are shorter.

It's tough to overstate just how dominant the Packers' defense has been through the first two games of the season – both against top-five rushing offenses in 2024. After holding Detroit to its fewest yards per play since 2021 in Week 1, Green Bay turned around and held Washington to its worst offensive game since 2022. That Detroit win looks especially impressive given what the Lions unleashed on Ben Johnson and the Bears on Sunday.

Offensively, the Packers will have to compensate for the loss of Jayden Reed, though that probably just means more snaps and opportunity for rookie Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks. Long-term, Reed's broken collarbone could end up being a blessing in disguise if the time off enables the Jones fracture in his foot to fully heal.

Cleveland enters Week 3 sitting at 0-2 after a drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. But the Browns' defense has been mostly impressive thus far, holding the Bengals under 200 total yards and completely stifling Derrick Henry (11 carries, 23 yards) and the Ravens' ground game (45 yards on 21 carries).

Going up against the Packers' ferocious defense will be a difficult test, but I like the Browns to slow down Josh Jacobs and find a way to keep this game within a score. Since 2020, road favorites of at least 8.5 points are covering at only a 37.3% clip. I lean toward the U42.0 here, as well.

The pick: Packers 23 – Browns 17

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -2.5

Total: 43.5

Across the NFL, there are really only a small handful of franchises capable of blowing multiple leads and ultimately losing to a backup quarterback who threw three interceptions. The Jacksonville Jaguars are at the top of that list. Week 2 will go down as a massive missed opportunity for the Jags, who turned it over twice themselves and had multiple game-swinging drops to hand the Bengals a second straight undeserved win.

The drop by Dyami Brown was the worst of them all, but Brian Thomas Jr. was also a glaring negative. He had a key drop on fourth down late in the game, which came after multiple plays on which he either stopped his route or appeared to be dodging contact. Just five catches on 19 targets through two weeks paints an ugly picture.

After blowing a golden opportunity to start 2-0, the Jags now head into a dangerous portion of their schedule that includes matchups against San Francisco, Kansas City, Seattle and the Rams over the next month. 

Houston, meanwhile, is sitting at 0-2 after a pair of crushing losses to the Rams and Buccaneers. While the Texans have faced two very good teams, the offense has looked borderline-disastrous behind what may be the worst offensive line in the NFL. Houston ranks 29th in passing EPA thus far, with C.J. Stroud facing consistent pressure and averaging just 166.5 yards per game.

The Jaguars should be a much friendlier opponent, though Jacksonville's pass rush will once again be a challenge. Jacksonville has also generated an NFL-high six turnovers – including five interceptions – after picking off only six passes all of last season.

For as mostly inept as Houston has looked, I have bigger questions about Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas and the Jags. Houston finds a way to avoid an 0-3 start and ekes out a road win as a slight underdog.

Note: The Jags are wearing their throwback uniforms, which does put this in stay-away territory for me.

The pick: Texans 21 – Jaguars 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Total: 41.5

Alright, a lot to unpack here. Reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week, J.J. McCarthy, looked a lot like quarters-one-through-three-of-Week-1 J.J. McCarthy on Sunday night, as Minnesota – the league's 31st-ranked offense by EPA – struggled to get anything going in an ugly loss to the Falcons.

We found out Monday that McCarthy sustained a high-ankle sprain and appears set to miss multiple games. So in steps Carson Wentz to take on Jake Browning in an all-time who the hell knows what's about to happen game. Given how McCarthy has looked, there's a case to be made that Wentz will provide Minnesota with a higher baseline in the short term. There's a reason the line only moved a half-point after McCarthy was ruled out. And the Bengals' defense should be a friendly matchup – particularly on the ground for Jordan Mason, who will be the featured back with Aaron Jones also sidelined.

Minnesota's defense should be able to get after Jake Browning, who tossed three picks last week against Jacksonville, but Browning's fearlessness will enable Cincinnati to generate enough big plays to hang around. Last week, he essentially alternated incredible throws and terrible throws – very little in-between.

I lean on Minnesota's defense to do just enough to pull out a win, but Cincinnati will make this a sweat.

The pick: Vikings 23 – Bengals 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Spread: Steelers -1.5

Total: 44.0

Really interesting matchup between a pair of 1-1 teams. After a rough Week 1 showing, the Pats were able to hang on for a road win in Miami on Sunday. New England put up 6.1 yards per play and converted three-of-four red zone trips, though the defense did allow the Dolphins to rip off 6.9 yards per play.

On the other side, Pittsburgh's defense struggled for the second straight week, surrendering 395 total yards (6.2 YPP) to Sam Darnold and Co., despite Darnold tossing a pair of first-half interceptions. There's no question it was a legitimate win for Seattle, but it is worth noting how dramatically the game swung on a flukey kickoff play early in the fourth quarter.

The Steelers' defense – particularly against the run – is a real concern, but I like this as a road bounceback spot for Pittsburgh.

The pick: Steelers 23 – Patriots 21

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -3.5

Total: 44.5

Both teams sitting at 2-0 sets this up as perhaps the game off the week in a rematch from last season's Divisional Round thriller. The Eagles, of course, prevailed in that matchup, but the Rams pushed Philly to the brink and gave the Eagles their biggest scare of their postseason run.

Philly is coming off of a relatively unimpressive win over the Chiefs, but a victory at Arrowhead is a victory at Arrowhead – we're not going to quibble about how they got it done. With that said, the Eagles' passing game has left plenty to be desired. Jalen Hurts ranks second in the NFL in completion percentage (75.6%), but he's averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt and an NFL-low 7.4 yards per completion. His 12.7% success rate also ranks dead-last in the NFL.

The Rams are coming off of a convincing win over the Titans in what could have been a sneaky trap-game spot, but LA pulled away in the second half and racked up 439 yards of offense, while holding Teneessee to 3.9 yards per play. The Davante Adams-Puka Nacua combo should be able to give the Eagles' secondary problems, so I like Rams to make this a close game.

We'll take the Eagles to pull out another ugly, three-point win at home, but we like the Rams to cover with the hook.

The pick: Eagles 23 – Rams 20

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -6.5

Total: 44.5

Tampa Bay enters Week 3 sitting at 2-0 after a pair of dramatic victories. In Week 1, Emeka Egbuka scored the go-ahead touchdown with 59 seconds remaining. In Week 2, it was Rachaad White plunging in with six seconds left to deliver an impressive road win in Houston. Down Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs, the Bucs are incredibly fortunate to be 2-0, and they'll have a prime opportunity to remain undefeated with the 0-2 Jets making a trip down to Tampa.

With Justin Fields (concussion) unavailable, the Jets will pivot to Tyrod Taylor for a week, though that may not be a massive downgrade. Fields played arguably the best game of his career in Week 1 before crashing and burning against Buffalo last week. Prior to exiting, he completed just 3-of-11 passes for 27 yards and lost a fumble on the Jets' second possession.

With this number hanging under 7.0, we'll ride with the Bucs to win and cover at home, but this is closer to stay-away territory for me.

The pick: Buccaneers 27 – Jets 20

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Colts -3.5

Total: 43.5

I'm not sure I'm ready to fully buy-in on the Colts, but following up a decimation of the Dolphins by putting up 29 points on the Broncos has to be taken seriously. Indy racked up 473 yards of offense on what may be the league's best defense, while Daniel Jones once again avoided mistakes and wasn't afraid to push the ball downfield. Through two weeks, Jones ranked third among all quarterbacks in EPA per play and third in success rate.

The Titans' defense is formidable enough to make this interesting, but it's tough to argue with how effective and efficient the Colts are playing right now. We'll roll with Indy to move to 3-0 SU and ATS.

The pick: Colts 26 – Titans 20

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -3.5

Total: 44.5

All eyes are on the status of Jayden Daniels, who picked up a knee injury in the Commanders' Week 2 loss at Green Bay. As of publication, the team hasn't officially ruled him out, but it certainly seems as though Washington is preparing for Marcus Mariota to make at least one start. Accordingly, the line has moved a full 3.0 points after opening up at 6.5.

If we do, indeed, see Mariota, the Commanders' offense obviously won't be as high-powered, but Mariota is a more-than-capable backup who looked good in two appearances last season. He took over for an injured Daniels against Carolina in Week 7, finishing 18-of-23 for 205 yards and two scores, while carrying 11 times for 34 yards. He also played the second half in Week 18 at Dallas, where he completed 15-of-18 passes for 161 yards and two scores to go with 56 rushing yards and a touchdown.

On the other side, Vegas is coming off of a fairly disastrous showing against the Chargers on Monday night. Geno Smith tossed a pick on the first play of the game – one of three on the night. Offensive line play continues to be an issue for Vegas, which has been unable to get Ashton Jeanty going. Through two weeks, the rookie has just 81 yards on 30 carries and three yards on five receptions.

With the assumption that Daniels is out, we'll still side with Washington to win at home, but the Raiders can cover the 3.5.

The pick: Commanders 23 – Raiders 20

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.0

Total: 45.5

The Chargers got a little sloppy in the second half of their Week 2 win over the Raiders, but on balance it was a second straight dominant effort from LA, which held the Raiders to just 218 yards of total offense after mostly shutting down the Chiefs in Week 1. While the Chargers' ground game is yet to take off, Justin Herbert is off to an excellent start, completing 72.1% of his passes and leading all quarterbacks in passing EPA.

After nearly stumbling at home against Tennessee in Week 1, the Broncos found a way to lose at the buzzer in Indy in Week 2. Denver led 28-20 late in the third quarter before finishing a punt, a pick and a missed field goal on its final three drives. A leverage penalty on the Colts' initial field-goal attempt ultimately led to a much-more-manageable second try. 

While Bo Nix and the Broncos' passing game looked much better in Week 2, it was somewhat alarming that Indianapolis was able to put up 473 yards of offense (7.1 YPP) on what may be the best defense in the NFL. Credit to Daniel Jones for another strong performance, as the Colts scored on seven of nine drives and failed to convert fourth downs on the other two.

This divisional matchup feels like a complete toss-up for a number of reasons. The Chargers have certainly looked like the better team thus far, but this could be a get-right spot for the Denver defense given LA's struggles to run the ball. It's not quite the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, but it's close.

We'll grab the points with Denver.

The pick: Broncos 23 – Chargers 21

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -7.0

Total: 41.5

Seattle is coming off of a big road win over Pittsburgh, one in which they were able to get Kenneth Walker going as a focal point of the offense in the second half. Sam Darnold shook off two early interceptions to finish with 295 yards on 33 attempts on a day when the Seahawks out-gained Pittsburgh 395 to 267. It was another strong week for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL in team target percentage through two weeks.

With the 0-2 Saints coming to town, this should be a good spot for Seattle, though the Saints have displayed a high degree of friskiness over the first two weeks. New Orleans pushed Arizona to the brink in Week 1 before playing another close game against the (albeit depleted) 49ers.

With that said, this is the first road game of the year for the Saints, and I like Seattle's defense to force Spencer Rattler's first turnover of the season. Expect New Orleans to make this difficult, but we'll roll with Seattle to cover the touchdown spread.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Saints 16

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -1.5

Total: 50.5

Broncos-Chargers is the highlight of the four-game late window, but this is the game that could produce the most fireworks. The total has climbed north of 50.5, while we have some disagreement on the spread. At DraftKings, the Cowboys have moved to 1.5-point favorites, while the Bears are still 1.5-point home favorites at FanDuel.

It's fair to wonder how the Bears are giving points after what we've seen through two weeks, but there's a case to be made that they're catching the Cowboys at the right time, as Dallas will still be without DaRon Bland, as well as starting center Cooper Beebe.

However, the Bears have some big injuries of their own on the defensive side. Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards are in danger of missing this game, while Jaylon Johnson is facing a long-term absence due to a groin injury.

While Chicago is coming off of a thorough shellacking at the hands of the Lions, the Bears' offense showed some signs of progress and should be able to move the ball on a Cowboys unit that just gave up one million yards (correction: it was only 506) of total offense to Russell Wilson and the Giants last week.

I like Chicago to keep this game close throughout, but we have to side with Dallas to pick up the road win. The over, by the way, is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between these teams, while Dak Prescott is 39-12 SU against sub-.500 teams.

The pick: Cowboys 30 – Bears 27

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Total: 45.5

Our final game of the late window brings us to the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Both teams sit at 2-0 but none of those four games have been comfortable victories. After barely hanging on at New Orleans in Week 1, the Cardinals nearly blew a 27-3 lead against Carolina last week. While the Cards did put up 6.1 yards per play – and were gifted two turnovers before even running a single offensive play – there's a notable lack of explosion with this offense, and the fact that James Conner ran for just 34 yards on 11 carries against the Panthers defense is a concern.

Even with their key injuries, the Niners are a big step up in class this week. Stepping in for Brock Purdy, Mac Jones fared well in a win over the Saints, tossing three touchdowns and completing 26-of-39 passes. Ideally, Jones probably isn't airing it out close to 40 times, but maybe we need to put some respect on the Saints' defense, which was able to contain the Niners' ground game.

As of publication, it's unclear if Jones will make another start, as Brock Purdy may attempt to return after missing just one game.

With this being the Stay-Away of the Week, I obviously see it as a toss-up game. My lean is on the 49ers to find a way to win at home with Jones, but it's worth noting that Kyle Shanahan has struggled throughout his career against Arizona. Entering Sunday, Shanahan is 7-9 SU against the Cardinals, going 6-9-1 ATS and just 2-5-1 ATS at home.

We'll get a little wild and take the Niners to win straight-up, but just by a point. The U45.5 is my favorite play.

The pick: 49ers 21 – Cardinals 20

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

Spread: Chiefs -6.5

Total: 44.5

We faded the Chiefs last week, and while the defense clamped down to hold Philly to just 3.7 yards per play, KC managed just 17 points and now finds itself sitting 0-2 for the first time in over a decade. Facing pressure to win a Week 3 game is a foreign concept to Patrick Mahomes, but this is absolutely a must-win for Kansas City, especially with a matchup against Baltimore looming in Week 4.

I'll be surprised if Kansas City finds a way to lose this game, but the Giants are coming off of a monster performance last week against Dallas, putting up north of 500 yards of total offense in a back-and-forth overtime loss. Realistically, the Giants' offense probably settles somewhere in between what we've seen through two games. But given how neutered the KC offense has looked, every game feels like a difficult spot.

Ultimately, the Chiefs' defense took enough of a step forward in Week 2 to re-instill my confidence in that unit. The offense, however, remains in purgatory – at least until Rashee Rice returns in a few weeks. For now, I don't trust KC to do enough offensively to cover the 6.5

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Giants 17

Monday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -4.5

Total: 51.5

Semi-controversial opinion (maybe?): I'm a fan of the Monday Night Football double-headers. As a card-carrying night owl, I love nothing more than meaningful football on my television at midnight Central Time. Regardless, we're back to just one MNF game this week, and it's a big one.

Both teams enter at 1-1 after Week 1 letdowns, and both are coming off of dominant Week 2 victories. Obviously, the Ravens playing at home is a boost, but I'm surprised this number opened as high as 6.0 and am not surprised it's been bet down to 4.5 at some shops.

Admittedly, it's tough to know what to take away from both teams' first two games. On balance, Baltimore has looked dominant, but the defense had some major letdowns in Week 1, while the offense took a full half to get going against Cleveland last week. Meanwhile, Detroit was mostly shut down by the Packers in Week 1 before looking a lot more like last year's Lions against what may ultimately be a terrible Bears team.

I lean on Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to win this game at home, but it may come down to final possession or two.

The pick: Ravens 32 – Lions 26