This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week I was 7-8 pending the Wednesday night game, I won my best bet (the Bills) by the narrowest of margins and went 1-4 in the Supercontest. And while I had the Broncos plus six before knowing all their QBs would be out (the line eventually went to 15.5), I have the Steelers minus five, and that line is now 10. Par for the course in 2020.
This week, I especially like the Titans and 49ers.
EARLY GAMES
Lions +3 at Bears
I made this line 3.5, as the only decent unit on the field is the Bears defense, they're at home and Mitchell Trubisky is actually an upgrade over Nick Foles. The one thing that worries me is a possible dead-cat bounce for the Lions after canning Matt Patricia, but I'll lay the wood.
Bears 26 - 20
Bengals +11.5 at Dolphins
I made this 10.5, so that puts me on the Bengals. I'm not proud of it.
Dolphins 23 - 13
Colts -3 at Texans
If DeForest Buckner is back, the Colts defense could make it tough on Deshaun Watson who's down his best receiver after Will Fuller got suspended. Still, I'll take the full field goal and the better quarterback.
Colts 24 - 23
Jaguars +9.5 at Vikings
I made this line eight, and I'd like it even better if Gardner Minshew can suit up. The Vikings have a high ceiling but as they've shown repeatedly also a low floor. Take the points.
Vikings 27 - 19
Raiders -8 at Jets
I expect the Raiders to bounce back against a weak opponent after getting thumped in Atlanta, but this is their second straight road game in the early time slot, and weather could be a factor. Take the points.
Raiders 26 - 19
Saints -3 at Falcons
The Saints have looked great defensively of late, but Taysom Hill looks solvable, and the Falcons have been much better since Dan Quinn was fired. Take the points.
Saints 24 - 23
Browns +5.5 at Titans
I made this line seven, as the Titans have the better quarterback and more explosive receivers. Lay the wood.
Titans 30 - 23
LATE GAMES
Giants +10 at Seahawks
Daniel Jones probably won't play, and Colt McCoy is terrible, but the Seahawks can't pass protect or play defense, so I'll take the points.
Seahawks 26 - 17
Rams -3 at Cardinals
Kyler Murray's shoulder makes me nervous, but this is a big number for the Rams on the road against a contending divisional rival. Take the points.
Cardinals 23 - 20
Eagles +9.5 at Packers
I made this line exactly 9.5, so I can go either way. My rule when my number is exact is to take the team I don't want, and that would definitely be the Eagles. The Packers aren't great, but they sure know how to bully bad teams at home. So give me the Eagles even though it goes against every fiber of my being.
Packers 28 - 20
Patriots pick 'em at Chargers
I made this a pick 'em, so I can choose, but I prefer the Patriots who are undermanned but so much better coached. My rule states I should therefore go with the Chargers, but I'll go against it because my instinct based on the players and watchability would be the Chargers, i.e., the fact I'd pick the Pats at all against talented teams is itself in the spirit of the rule. Take New England.
Patriots 26 - 24
SUNDAY NIGHT
Broncos +14 at Chiefs
I made this 13.5, so I'm on the Broncos, who play decent defense and should have a QB this week.
Chiefs 33 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Bills -2.5 at 49ers
I made this line a pick 'em, so I'm on the 49ers who have an outside shot at a playoff spot, some key players back and arguably the second best head coach in the league. Take the points.
49ers 27 - 24
Football Team +9.5 at Steelers
I made this line 10.5, so I should be on the Steelers, but they have another game to play in the interim and a short week, while the Football Team has 11 days off. I rarely switch my pick, but given the injury uncertainty of an extra game, which could be of the smash-mouth variety against a division rival, I'll pivot to the Football Team. Take the points.
Steelers 24 - 17
TUESDAY NIGHT
Cowboys +7 at Ravens
This one is even more random with the Ravens playing tonight and having their quarterback on the COVID list, but it is what it is. I actually made it exactly seven and was inclined to take the points, given the uncertainty, but the Cowboys are missing two more offensive linemen, so give me the Ravens.
Ravens 24 - 16
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I went 7-8 last week to bring my season-long record to 83-90-3, won my best bet (Bills 4-8) and went 1-4 in the Supercontest to go 26-32-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.
