Beating the Book: NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 14 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

Our run of mediocrity continued on Thanksgiving Week, as we went just 1-3 ATS in the Thursday/Friday games before picking up some momentum on Sunday. However, we were on the wrong side of a ridiculous Commanders-Broncos game and took points with the Giants in a Monday Night matchup that felt completely over by the end of the first quarter. All in all, that landed us a 7-9 ATS week, and we're now in danger of falling below .500 for the first time this season.

The good news is we have another week of NFL football upon us – this time with 28 teams in action as the final round of bye weeks passes. Week 14 kicks off on Thursday night with a certified banger between the Cowboys and Lions in Detroit and finishes out with a pair of excellent matchups on Sunday and Monday night.

As of publication, we have no double-digit spreads, though the Bucs and Rams are each favored by at least 8.0 points. The, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers are also favored by at least a touchdown, while six games currently hold a spread of a field goal or less. The slate also features a slew of lower totals, headlined by a 33.5 in Titans-Browns. Of our 14 games, only three have a total sitting 45.0 or higher.

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 14 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 13:

• Cowboys +3.5 vs. Chiefs: Even with an excellent game from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs couldn't overcome a slew of penalties and defensive letdowns.
• 49ers -4.5 at Browns: The Browns were a trendy home dog, but it's very difficult to win games against a quality team with the worst quarterback play in the league.

Worst calls of Week 13:

• Eagles -7.0 vs. Bears: An all-time letdown game by the Eagles, who played about as badly as they could have on both sides of the ball. 
• Dolphins -5.5 vs. Saints: We knew it was a fishy line and still took the bait on a Dolphins team that was very lucky to escape with a SU win.

Last week: 7-9 ATS; 8-8 SU; best bet lost (PHI)

On the season: 95-94-5 ATS; 126-68-1 SU; 6-7 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Sunday Early Slate

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 54.5

We begin the week with perhaps our best Thursday Night Football matchup of the season. Suddenly, the Cowboys are back in the playoff race in the NFC, while the Lions are looking to avoid their first back-to-back losses since 2022.

Both teams are currently on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. A Cowboys loss would put those postseason hopes on life support, while the Lions dropping to 7-6 would likely mean they'll need considerable help to find their way into a Wild Card spot.

Injuries are a major issue on the Detroit side, as virtually the entire offensive line is banged up, multiple defensive backs are injured, and it remains to be seen whether Amon-Ra St. Brown will be available after leaving last week's game with an ankle injury. Beyond that, Sam LaPorta is on IR, and the Lions' backup tight end, Brock Wright, hasn't practiced all week.

The trends say this should be a buyback spot on the Lions, who are 13-1 ATS off of a SU loss in the Dan Campbell/Jared Goff era. But the one ATS loss in that span came just two weeks ago, when Detroit needed overtime to prevail over Jameis Winston and the Giants. Meanwhile, Dallas is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season and just 2-4 ATS as a favorite.

With both teams backed into a corner, this feels like a true toss-up game. Dallas is certainly the hotter side right now, but we know the Lions will pull out every trick in the bag to salvage their postseason hopes.

We'll side with Dallas to pull off another upset, but this is much more of a "sit back and enjoy it" type of game for me.

The pick: Cowboys 31 – Lions 29

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Seahawks -7.0

Total: 44.5

A classic bird vs. bird matchup down in Atlanta to kick off the Sunday slate. Seattle is coming off of another defensive masterclass last week against Max Brosmer and the Vikings, covering up what was ultimately a third straight underwhelming game from Sam Darnold. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was completely shut down, while Darnold completed just 14-of-26 passes for a season-low 128 yards. Still, it's tough to ignore just how dominant the Seattle defense has been this season – particularly against inferior competition.

The Falcons' talent may exceed their record, but they definitely qualify as inferior competition. In typical Atlanta fashion, they found a way to lose a very winnable game last week against the Jets. Atlanta out-gained New York 389 to 269, put up 5.8 YPP and went 3-for-3 in the red zone. However, the Falcons also muffed a punt inside the 5-yard-line, gave up an 83-yard kickoff return, went three-and-out twice in the final minutes, and surrendered a career day to Adonai Mitchell. A perfect encapsulation of the Falcons' season/franchise.

I will admit that it would be extremely Falcons to show up in this spot and give Seattle a run for its money, but I can't get the image of the Seattle defense pressuring Kirk Cousins – the most sack-able quarterback in the league right now – all afternoon.

We'll ride with the Seahawks to win fairly comfortably, but don't be surprised if they leave the back door open on a cross-country road trip.

The pick: Seahawks 26 – Falcons 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -5.5

Total: 42.5

While neither team is playing well right now, this game will go a long way toward deciding the AFC North. After putting up just 166 yards of offense against Buffalo last week, Pittsburgh now sits at 6-6, having dropped five of its last seven games. The Steelers' only wins during that stretch came against Indianapolis and Cincinnati – games in which Pittsburgh forced a combined eight turnovers.

With how the Steelers' offense is operating right now (not well), those turnovers feel like their only hope to hang in against superior competition.

While Baltimore is coming off of its worst game of the season, the Ravens are still the vastly more talented side with specific advantages on offense. That loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving night was certainly alarming, but it's worth noting that Baltimore committed five uncharacteristic turnovers, including Isaiah Likely being stripped as he was crossing the goal line.

Zay Flowers also had a long touchdown called back on a dubious offensive pass interference call that changed the game. Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense came up with a number of key stops, holding Cincy to just one touchdown in six red zone trips.

I do have major questions about the Ravens' play calling, but my hope is that the loss to Cincinnati serves as something of a wake-up call. We'll ride with Baltimore to get its act together offensively and hand Pittsburgh a loss behind a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, who was criminally underutilized last week.

Note: Lamar Jackson did not practice on Thursday. We'll update our prediction accordingly as news on Jackson develops ahead of Sunday.

The pick: Ravens 24 – Steelers 17

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -4.5

Total: 33.5

On paper, this is the ugliest game of the week – and maybe the ugliest game of the season – but if you're a real ball-knower, this is the kind of matchup you can't wait to watch on Sunday. Cam Ward vs. Shedeur Sanders. Myles Garrett vs. an offensive line that's given up 48 sacks. Both teams vs. freezing temperatures in Cleveland.

In the interest of full disclosure, I will likely have a Survivor entry riding on the Browns this week. So this is the most locked-in I'll ever be on a Week 14 matchup between two teams with four combined wins. The path to victory for Cleveland is relatively clear. Ride the defense, run the ball semi-effectively, force a turnover or two, and avoid the killer mistake(s) by Sanders.

The Sanders component is probably the biggest liability of those. He's an upgrade over Dillon Gabriel from an upside perspective, but Sanders has a CPOE of -11.4% on the season – easily the worst mark of any quarterback. Cam Ward, by comparison, sits at -3.9% – better than Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams and Davis Mills.

I mostly trust Kevin Stefanski to steer Sanders away from trouble, but this game may actually come down to whether the Browns are able to run on Tennessee. The Titans don't do many things well, but they've been an adequate run defense, ranking 20th in EPA per rush and 18th in overall defensive success rate. Over the last three weeks, the Titans have held Jacksonville to 70 rushing yards, Seattle to 114 and Houston to 75.

They'll know what's coming on Sunday and should be well-prepared to slow down Quinshon Judkins. More than anything, it'll be important for Cleveland to find a way to score early and avoid playing from behind. If Tennessee is able to build an early lead, it's tough to envision Sanders leading a comeback against a decent defense.

We'll settle on Cleveland to win a predictably ugly game outright (yes, this is wishcasting) but will happily take the 4.5 with Tennessee.

The pick: Browns 16 – Titans 13

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Colts -1.5

Total: 47.5

Alongside Steelers-Ravens and Bears-Packers, this is another massive divisional matchup in Week 14. The Jags come in riding a three-game winning streak, most recently taking care of business in Nashville last week. Thanks to another strong defensive performance, Jacksonville won convincingly, but the Jags are still struggling to find consistency on offense. They finished that game with only 272 yards of offense and 13 penalties, which continues to be a weekly issue.

On the other side of the ball, though, Jacksonville held Tennessee to 3.4 yards per play and 3-of-16 on third and fourth downs. With three sacks of Cam Ward, the Jags now have 12 sacks over their last three games after ranking dead-last in the NFL in that category through 10 weeks. On the season, the Jags are now up to fifth in defensive EPA, third in EPA per pass and 10th in success rate.

While I still have a multi-decade collection of data to suggest that the Jaguars should not be trusted in a spot like this, there's a case to be made that they're catching the Colts at the right time. Once the toast of the NFL, Indy has now dropped two straight and put up its two lowest offensive outputs of the season in those losses. Against Kansas City in Week 12, the Colts managed only 255 total yards before finishing with 281 last week against Houston. In that span, they've run a whopping 61 fewer plays than their opponents. 

In accordance with the offensive slowdown, Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula. He was able to manage it last week, but Jones' running ability – a key component in the Colts' success this season – has been sapped. It's tough to know just how much of a factor the injury will be this week, but with rain in the forecast, this could be a spot where both teams lean more heavily on the running game.

Jonathan Taylor may be capable of winning this game himself, but we should have some faith in the Jags' defense to turn this into a lower-scoring affair. The under is my favorite play, but we'll side with the Jags to pull out one of their biggest regular-season wins in recent memory. The Colts, by the way, have not won in Jacksonville since 2014.

The pick: Jaguars 23 – Colts 20

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -2.0

Total: 42.5

Do not bet this game. Please. Do not bet this game. This is the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week and perhaps the clubhouse leader for Stay-Away of the Year.

The pick: Vikings 21 – Commanders 20

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Spread: Dolphins -3.0

Total: 41.0

In a similar vein to Titans-Browns, this is another bad team on bad team matchup I'm actually excited to watch. The Dolphins have quietly won three in a row, while the Jets are coming off of a win against Atlanta and have now covered five in a row.

Both of these teams tend to be total wild cards on a weekly basis, but the Jets have found at least a modicum of consistency with Tyrod Taylor chucking the ball around to AD Mitchell and John Metchie. They also continue to have one of the best special teams units in the NFL. It went a long way toward winning them last week's game and almost single-handedly carried them to a win over the Browns a few weeks ago.

On the other side, the Dolphins continue to lean heavily on De'Von Achane, who's piled up 428 rushing yards on 65 carries over the last three weeks. Achane ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson in total touches this season.

Ultimately, this game will likely come down to which team commits fewer mistakes, and I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think that team may be the Jets. Miami did get a win over New York back in Week 4, but that was a game in which the Jets lost the turnover battle 3-0 on a trio of fumbles, including one at the goal line. New York won the yardage battle 404 to 300, ripped off 7.1 yards per play and ran for 197 yards.

It's also worth noting that Miami has not played a true road game since Week 8 and is yet to play anything close to a cold-weather game this season. Jets win straight up.

The pick: Jets 21 – Dolphins 20

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -8.0

Total: 43.5

I would love to say this is yet another massive divisional matchup, but that is simply not the case. While this game does carry playoff implications for the Bucs, who suddenly have to fend off the Panthers, the Saints have been dead in the water since Week 1.

After falling to the Dolphins last week, New Orleans now sits at 2-10 and ranks bottom-five in offensive EPA, rushing EPA and passing EPA. The Saints' defense has remained formidable, but it's tough to envision that unit doing enough to slow down a healthier version of Baker Mayfield and a Bucs offense that has Bucky Irving back in full swing. To be fair, Tampa Bay hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders of late, but that downturn coincided with some key injuries, as well as a difficult stretch of schedule.

Defensively, the Bucs' secondary has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL over the last four weeks, so perhaps there will be some opportunity for Tyler Shough, Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele to make this uncomfortable. But I'm still a believer in Todd Bowles' defense, which had to face Drake Maye, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and the Jacoby Brissett air raid during that four-game sample.

Ultimately, even if Tampa Bay sputters to some degree offensively, the bar to outsourcing the Saints tends to be very low. New Orleans hasn't scored 20 points since Week 5 and seven of the last nine Saints games have finished under 40 points.

The U43.5 is my favorite play here, but we'll ride the Bucs to coast to their first comfortable victory since the last time these teams met in Week 8 (a 23-3 Tampa Bay win).

The pick: Buccaneers 27 – Saints 14

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -5.5

Total: 53.5

Coming off of an upset win over the Ravens on Thanksgiving, the Bengals find themselves in eerily familiar territory sitting at 4-8. That was their record through 12 games a year ago before they reeled off five straight wins to end the season, only to fall just short of stealing a Wild Card spot.

This time around, though, the AFC North may be their clearest path to the Playoffs. Cincy has dug itself enough of a hole that it's still a longshot, but the Bengals – who won one game between Sept. 15 and Nov. 26 – are only 2.0 games behind the Ravens and Steelers with a head-to-head win over Baltimore in their pocket.

More than anything, Cincy's fate lies in the hands of Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but even one more loss could essentially end any hopes of sneaking in. Traveling to Buffalo in December will be a tough task, but the Bills are among several elite teams who've shown plenty of cracks this season. Prior to rallying for a win over Pittsburgh last week, Buffalo had dropped two of its last three to Houston and Buffalo, managing just 32 total points in those losses.

Ultimately, both offenses should have advantages here. Buffalo's run defense has been shaky all season, while the Bengals remain one of the worst defenses in NFL history. That may not have shown through against Baltimore, but I like the Bills' chances to ride James Cook to a high-scoring win at home.

The pick: Bills 34 – Bengals 27

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Broncos -7.5

Total: 40.5

Another divisional matchup that very much matters for the Broncos. For the Raiders? Not so much. Denver sits at 10-2 with a chance to pull even with the Pats (on bye) for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Sunday night's win over Washington marked nine in a row for Denver, but even with wins over Kansas City, Houston, Dallas and Philly in that span, I'm still not sure I trust this team. Of those nine wins, seven have come by four points or less, including bizarre games against Marcus Mariota, Geno Smith, Jaxson Dart and Justin Fields.

When these teams met in Denver a few weeks ago, the Broncos pulled out a 10-7 victory in one of the ugliest games of the season. Denver finished with just 220 yards of total offense (3.9 YPP), converted 5-of-15 third downs, went three-and-out seven times, and Bo Nix threw two picks.

And yet, the Broncos' defense continues to win games. Entering Week 14, Denver ranks sixth in EPA per play, second in success rate and fifth in EPA per pass. This should be yet another nightmare offensive day for the Raiders, but the question is whether the Denver offense will do enough to cover the 7.5. Recent history says no – the Broncos are 1-5 ATS as at least a 6.0-point favorite – but it's so difficult to back the Raiders, who are 1-3 ATS as at least a 6.0-point dog.

The pick: Broncos 23 – Raiders 14

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -6.5

Total: 44.5

Green Bay's season felt like it was on the verge of going off the rails after back-to-back losses to Carolina and Philly – plus a shaky win over the James Giants – but in the two weeks since, they've smacked around the Vikings and won in Detroit to sweep the season series. Sitting at 8-3-1, the Packers have created separation from the Lions, but the 9-3 Bears currently sit atop the NFC North.

I still have my reservations about this Bears team, but we have to give credit when credit is due for a dominant win over the Eagles, in Philly, on Black Friday. The Eagles may have played a role in their own demise, but that was far from a flukey win for the Bears, who ran for 281 yards and nearly doubled up Philly in time of possession. While Chicago's overall body of work may not be impressive, a win like that – even over a team going through an identity crisis – was an announcement that the Bears have to be taken seriously.

The big question for me heading into this game is which version of the Packers' offense we'll see on Sunday afternoon. For much of the season, Green Bay has gone ultra-conservative, opting to ride a middling running game rather than let Jordan Love air it out. Thursday's win over the Lions ran contrary to that plan, as Green Bay put the ball in Love's hands, took shots down the field and repeatedly gambled on fourth down.

Those gambles paid off, but I could see Matt LaFleur reverting back to a more conservative style against a Bears defense that's mostly struggled to stop the run. Either way, 6.5 feels like too many points to be giving a 9-3 division rival – a team that won outright at Lambeau Field as a 10.0-point dog last season.

With both defenses playing well, this is another under spot for me – especially with 12-degree forecasted temperatures in Green Bay.

The pick: Packers 23 – Bears 19

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Rams -8.5

Total: 47.5

The Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals have been a frisky team, but ultimately they've lost all but one of Brissett's starts and sit at 3-9 SU on the year. With five weeks to play, they've been officially eliminated from playoff contention.

The Rams, meanwhile, come in off of a shocking loss in Carolina – a game the Panthers ripped away with key fourth-down conversions and three Matthew Stafford turnovers, including a pick-six. Even the best teams are afforded a letdown or two, and while last week was certainly that for the Rams, they still put up 7.4 YPP – tied for their best mark of the season – scored 28 points, and made six trips to the red zone.

Even in what could be a tricky divisional spot against a team looking to play spoiler, I don't see this being another letdown spot for LA. With that said, Arizona's high-volume passing attack could lend itself well to a backdoor cover.

The pick: Rams 28 – Cardinals 21

Sunday Night Football

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 41.5

We probably overuse the phrase "this is an elimination game" with five weeks left in the season, but this certainly has that feel, particularly for Kansas City. After falling short against Dallas on Thanksgiving – their third loss in four games – the Chiefs sit at 6-6 and very much on the outside looking in to the AFC postseason picture. 

A Wild Card spot is still in play, but the Chiefs will need teams like the Colts, Texans or Chargers to make room in the 7-team field. Obviously, a straight-up win over Houston is Step 1, but this is not the opponent KC wants to see on the schedule right now. Houston's defense continues to be among the best in the NFL, and the Texans have ripped off wins over the Jags, Bills and Colts in the last month, holding the latter two teams under 20 points.

I'm inclined to trust Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in a true desperation situation, but the Chiefs have shown us over and over that they're not getting the same breaks as last season. Playing at home with the season on the line, we'll take KC to win outright, but I'm not sure the Chiefs are capable of doing so convincingly.

The pick: Chiefs 21 – Texans 20

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Eagles -2.5

Total: 40.5

To finish out the Week 14 slate, we get the Eagles heading out West to LA to try to get their season back on the rails. The fact that the sky is falling and the Eagles are sitting at 8-4 says a lot about our expectations, but it's tough to ignore just how inept the Philly offense has looked since building a 21-0 lead against Dallas two weeks ago.

As touchdown favorites against a vulnerable Chicago defense, the Eagles managed just 317 yards of offense and converted only 4-of-12 third downs. Saquon Barkley was held to 56 yards on 13 carries, and Philly allowed the D'Andre Swift-Kyle Monangai tandem to run all over them. It now feels like the Eagles are once again mired in an identity crisis, but this is still the same team that holds wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, Packers and Lions – one of the more impressive resumes in the league.

We know what the Eagles are capable of when they're playing even relatively well, which makes this game against the Chargers a difficult handicap. LA is coming off of an easy win over the Raiders, but Justin Herbert suffered a broken finger on his non-throwing hand. While Herbert was able to finish out the game with a heavy wrap, he underwent surgery on Monday and will still be dealing with the after-effects. The general vibe is that Herbert will play through the injury, but it's tough to say how much – if at all – he'll be hindered.

The Chargers were able to lean on the running game last week behind the best game of Kimani Vidal's career. Omarion Hampton is expected to return to the fold this week, giving the Chargers two viable backs to attack the Eagles' run defense. The Chargers' offensive line remains a glaring question mark, however, with both Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt sidelined. It was able to hold up against the Raiders, but the Eagles should present a tougher challenge.

Ultimately, this is a matchup between two teams that keep us guessing as to which version will show up on a weekly basis. Los Angeles is certainly capable of winning this game at home, but it's tough to ignore LA's Week 11 no-show against the Jags, as well as letdown games against Indy, Washington and the Giants earlier in the season. Obviously, Philly is in the same boat, but much like the Ravens, my hope is that last week's embarrassment serves as an agent for change.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Chargers 23