This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday NFL Football, Week 17
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Week 17 brings an NFC conference matchup between the Atlanta Falcons (7-8) and the Chicago Bears (6-9). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Falcons vs. Bears Odds for Week 17 Sunday NFL Football
Falcons: Spread (+2.5) -102, Moneyline +130; Projected Score 17.8 points
Bears: Spread (-2.5) -118, Moneyline -155; Projected Score 20.3 points
Game Total: 38.0 points
The line opened Bears -2 and bumped up -3.0 before coming back to -2.5. The total opened 37.5 and has peaked at 39.0.
Totaling bets thus far, 58 percent of the money and 55 percent of the bets are on the Bears. There is 74 percent of the money on the Bears' moneyline, which is 77 percent of the bets. There is 97 percent of the money and 98 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Falcons: OT Kaleb McGary (Questionable)
Bears: WR Darnell Mooney (Out), TE Cole Kmet (Questionable - knee), C Lucas Patrick (Questionable - knee)
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Falcons vs. Bears Betting Picks This Week
Falcons vs. Bears Best Bet: Cairo Santos OVER 1.5 Field Goals (DraftKings -105) for 1 unit
With a projected lower-scoring close game, I look at a potential OVER on field goals by one of the kickers. Santos has hit the OVER in five out of his last six games, with at least three field goals in four of those. The Bears will be missing two key offensive weapons in Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney, which will put added pressure on the offense. The key with an OVER on field goals is you are hoping for one in the first half and then the second one in the fourth quarter especially with the game being close.
There is some concern regarding the weather, as it is projected to be 32 degrees and a 71 percent chance of snow.
Falcons vs. Bears Best Bet: Kyle Pitts OVER 33.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -110) for 1 unit
Knowing we have a potential weather situation, it is hard to look at OVERS, but in the case of Pitts it is viable as his targets will be closer to the line of scrimmage. He has also been very consistent and gone OVER this posted prop in 11 out of 15 games, including four in a row.
I also have more faith in Taylor Heinicke as a passer versus Desmond Ridder. The Bears defense ranks just 25th against opposing tight ends.
Falcons vs. Bears Best Bet: Falcons/Bears UNDER 38 (DraftKings -112) for 1 unit
With both teams pretty much eliminated from playoff contention, you have to wonder who will be motivated more in this game. Both defenses are playing better than the offenses, and we have a weather situation with 32 degrees and a high chance of snow. I do not see much offense in this game and will take the UNDER 38, which could move down quickly as game time approaches.
Falcons vs. Bears Prediction
Falcons - #25 overall DVOA, #24 DVOA offense, #19 DVOA defense
Bears - #23 overall DVOA, #22 DVOA offense, #16 DVOA defense
Falcons 19, Bears 16
