This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.
If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at a trio of players who often go off the board in the third round in 12-team leagues.
Jahmyr Gibbs
The Lions selected Gibbs with the 12th pick in this year's draft. When a team drafts a running back that early it usually means it expects a big impact immediately.
Upside
Gibbs projects to be a dynamic receiving weapon. In a best-case scenario, the Lions use him not only as a receiver out of the backfield but also line him up as a receiver to run routes. Getting the rookie (with 93rd-percentile speed) schemed into space to gain yardage after the catch would maximize his talent, allowing him to flirt with 800 receiving yards. Best case as a runner, Detroit gets Gibbs at least 150 attempts. Instead of running him inside, they get him outside. That would allow him to use his excellent vision and
Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.
If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at a trio of players who often go off the board in the third round in 12-team leagues.
Jahmyr Gibbs
The Lions selected Gibbs with the 12th pick in this year's draft. When a team drafts a running back that early it usually means it expects a big impact immediately.
Upside
Gibbs projects to be a dynamic receiving weapon. In a best-case scenario, the Lions use him not only as a receiver out of the backfield but also line him up as a receiver to run routes. Getting the rookie (with 93rd-percentile speed) schemed into space to gain yardage after the catch would maximize his talent, allowing him to flirt with 800 receiving yards. Best case as a runner, Detroit gets Gibbs at least 150 attempts. Instead of running him inside, they get him outside. That would allow him to use his excellent vision and ability to make defenders miss. Those types of runs could get him to nearly five yards per carry. Finally, using him as a pass catcher in the red zone would give him scoring opportunities that don't require him to challenge stacked boxes. If this all works out, Gibbs ends up with neary 1,600 scrimmage yards and six TDs. He would be an easy RB1 in that scenario.
Downside
As great as his college resume was, Gibbs' speed doesn't immediately translate to the NFL. He ends up being a good receiver, but not a difference maker. Also, his pre-draft testing had the rookie in the 35th percentile. If that testing is a true reflection, he would need build-up speed that players often don't have time for against pro defenses. Also, if David Montgomery gets 270 carries and most of the goal-line work, Gibbs would lose the potential for some easy fantasy points. A worst-case scenario would have him with 40 receptions and 130 carries with a fair percentage of those on interior runs. He'd still come close to 1,000 scrimmage yards, but he'd be closer to a top-20 RB than a top-10 option.
The Bottom Line
All rookies have the element of the unknown. The good news is that Gibbs is in a solid offense. Also, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson proved to be excellent about getting players open in space last year. Knowing they have Montgomery, the team likely will know when to use the veteran to take the highest-contact touches. I expect there to be growing pains, as I don't see Gibbs as a transcendent talent who will be immediately unstoppable. Overall, projecting 55 receptions and 1,200 yards seems reasonable. He'll be fine at his ADP, not under- or over-performing it by much.
Josh Jacobs
Jacobs is expected to report to the Raiders for Week 1. But he will have missed training camp. Clearly, he won't be happy playing on the franchise tag. Questions linger about motivation and how hard he trained while upset with his situation.
Upside
This is easy. Jacobs spent his time away from the team training as hard as he could. He's willing to bet on himself putting up one more year of elite production and hopefully cashing in as a free agent in his age-26 season (in 2024). The fifth-year veteran picks up where he left off last year. He's consistently a force in the rushing attack and near the goal line. As a three-down RB, he continues to post strong catch totals and good yardage after the catch. He may not be the overall RB1, but he's a top-5 running back and beats ADP again.
Downside
Knowing his job as a running back is a business, Jacobs protects his future earning potential. If he has any type of minor injury, he misses games. He knows that if there's film of him not playing at the highest level, it could impact future contract negotiations. Also, Jacobs realizes the Raiders were willing to run him into the ground last year. This year, he demands that he has a reasonable workload. Also, if he didn't train his hardest during his time away from the team, he starts the season out slowly. The overall downside has the veteran playing 10-12 games while getting far fewer touches than last year. Jacobs ends the season with less than 1,000 scrimmage yards, and is a disappointment for fantasy.
The Bottom Line
I am very concerned about Jacobs having been away from the team during August. It is my expectation that he starts the season slowly. Once Jacobs gets going, he'll be very effective but won't reach the production level of last seaon's career year. Near the end of the season, it is very concerning to think about the possibility that he gets nicked up and sits. Draft at your own risk, but this situation seems too worrisome for me to spend a third-round pick on Jacobs.
Joe Mixon
In fantasy points per game (PPR), Mixon has finished RB6 to RB10 in each of the last three years. In the offseason, the veteran took a pay cut. He also dealt with legal situations that he seems to have cleared up. Playing in the explosive Bengals offense, Mixon appears to be the lead back again.
Upside
Mixon matches or exceed his receiving production of 2022. In that season, he caught 60 passes for 441 yards on 75 targets. Few RBs have that level of usage in the passing game. Despite averaging fewer than four yards per carry over a four-year period, the addition of OT Orlando Brown and more continuity on the interior line give Mixon more room to run. In addition, Mixon has no serious competition for work from Chase Brown or Trayveon Williams. That allows Mixon to see nearly 300 carries, including goal-line work. If he stays healthy, he ends the year as a top-5 RB.
Downside
Mixon continues to show signs of decline. Last year, he ran for 3.9 yards per carry. He didn't help himself by posting a 29th-percentile broken tackle rate and 39th-percentile yards after contact. Mixon begins to cede receiving work to Chase Brown and some of the early down carries to Trayveon Williams. After missing 13 games the last three seasons, Mixon struggles to stay healthy and misses time. The longtime Bengal is still the lead back, but is in more of a committee than he was in the past. Between inefficiency and diminished usage, he barely reaches 1,000 scrimmage yards with fewer than 30 receptions.
The Bottom Line
Mixon has a productive track record. It's difficult to see Williams seriously challenging him for work. However, Chase Brown may be more explosive as a receiver. WIth the Bengals likely facing defenses playing back to limit downfield passing, Brown gives the team needed juice. Mixon should have enough usage to post more than 1,100 yards but his receptions are down significantly from 2022. Overall, he ends the year as a top-15 RB. He's not a value at ADP, but he does well enough that he's a reasonable fantasy pick.
The Final Word
I'm leaning toward Gibbs being the player to target in the third round of 12-team drafts. The Lions are motivated to make him a centerpiece of their offense. I expect the team to get the rookie at least 65 catches, which gives him strong floor and ceiling potential. After Gibbs, I'm leaning toward Mixon. I don't like betting on a player who appears to be in some level of decline. But his role is likely secure, and he's in an elite offense that should help him have space to operate. Unfortunately, I'm struggling to draft Jacobs. It's not about talent. I just believe that the "business of football" is going to come into play at some (or multiple points) this year. As a result, he's either not available or sees limited touches too often. If one thinks Jacobs is going to be a full go and play to his full ability for the entire season, move him to the top of this group.
