Rolex Australian Grand Prix
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Course: Albert Park Circuit
Course Length: 5.28km
Laps: 58
Race Preview
Max Verstappen continued his dominating form last time out at Saudi Arabia, claiming his second win of the 2024 season. While the race wasn't as big of a blowout as the prior outing at Bahrain, Verstappen and Red Bull Racing still have the measure of the rest of the field. Teammate Sergio Perez dutifully backed up Verstappen's domination with another runner-up finish to continue his good start to the season, too. Closest to the Red Bull teammates appear to be Ferrari. While the Italian squad has clearly cut the deficit to Red Bull, there is still a significant amount of ground between their race paces. Arguably the bigger story for Ferrari at Saudi Arabia was Oliver Bearman, who substituted for Carlos Sainz Jr., who was struck down by appendicitis. The young rookie had an impressive first race outing in the car, qualifying 11th and finishing the race seventh to score his first points in the series. Usual suspects Mercedes, McLaren, and Aston Martin battled it out behind the front runners, while Haas continued their stride forward from the winter, climbing up higher in the midfield battle behind the heavy hitters. This week the series heads to Australia for the third race of the season, the Formula 1 Rolex Australian Grand Prix at the Albert Park Circuit.
Key Stats at Albert Park Circuit
- Races: 26
- Winners from pole: 11
- Winners from top-5 starters: 23
- Winners from top-10 starters: 25
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 219.011kph
Previous 10 Australia Winners
2023 - Max Verstappen
2022 - Charles Leclerc
2019 - Valtteri Bottas
2018 - Sebastian Vettel
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Nico Rosberg
2015 - Lewis Hamilton
2014 - Nico Rosberg
2013 - Kimi Raikkonen
2012 - Jenson Button
The third stop on the 2024 Formula 1 season calendar takes the competition to Melbourne Australia and the Albert Park Circuit. The track is situated in a park and uses public roads. Long straights are punctuated by several heavy braking areas into tight chicanes, which enable passing if drivers can be brave on the brakes. Over the years, the layout has been enhanced to offer more passing opportunities, and pit lane has been widened, but the layout remains roughly the same as it was when it debuted on the schedule in 1996. The minimal changes over time means this circuit is very familiar to the teams, which will highlight the early-season differences between the cars. A one-stop strategy has traditionally been the call, but more bold tire decisions can make that a two-stop day. The track's tight confines, and opportunities for passing, mean contact and safety cars aren't uncommon, which can offer teams chances to gamble even more to finish higher up the order.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Rolex Australian Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $16,400
Charles Leclerc - $10,400
Sergio Perez - $10,200
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Lewis Hamilton - $9,000
George Russell - $8,400
Lando Norris - $8,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Fernando Alonso - $7,400
Oscar Piastri - $7,200
Alex Albon - $5,400
DraftKings Constructor Values
Red Bull Racing - $14,500
Ferrari - $10,000
Mercedes - $8,300
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Rolex Australian Grand Prix
Team Captain - Max Verstappen - $24,600
George Russell - $8,400
Alex Albon - $5,400
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,400
Esteban Ocon - $4,200
Constructor - Haas - $3,000
Already this season, Max Verstappen is the established favorite. While qualifying tends to be closer, his race race is faster than anyone else's. The biggest opportunity for someone to challenge him for the win this weekend is to outqualify him, or get ahead of him at the start. If anyone does that, managing the race from the lead to hold him back is arguably the best past forward. For this reason, Verstappen, despite his high price, remains a top choice for the captain's slot.
The middle of this week's lineup selects from those who have shown early potential, and have competed toward the front of the midfield so far this season. George Russell is the early leader in the Mercedes camp, having beaten teammate Lewis Hamilton in both races so far this year. An engine failure cost him a better finish in the Australian Grand Prix last season, though. Williams and Alex Albon are working to extract the most from their new car. It will take time for them to maximize that speed, but they did improve to the 11th finishing spot at Saudi Arabia. A first lap crash knocked Albon out of Australia last season. Haas has clearly shown improvement early in 2024. Nico Hulkenberg slots into this week's choices after his 10th-place finish at Saudi Arabia. Fantasy players can also consider teammate Kevin Magnussen, though. Hulkenberg finished seventh in this race last year, whereas Magnussen crashed out. Finally, Esteban Ocon may present the last best option. He also showed progress at Saudi Arabia, finishing 13th despite starting 17th. He also improved two positions from the start in Bahrain.
The driver choices above leave little room for a big-name constructor. However, given the budget constraints, Haas becomes a nice choice. The team has moved upward in the midfield battle, and both drivers have the chance to come away with points this week. Haas has had a good start to their season, and it could be wise to ride that early-season success while it lasts.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Rolex Australian Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Race Winner - Max Verstappen -550, Sergio Perez +750, Charles Leclerc +1400
Winning Constructor - Red Bull Racing -1000, Ferrari +900
Winning Margin - Over 12 seconds -110
Safety Car - No +165
The most likely scenario at Australia is that a Red Bull Racing car will win. Of the two options that could fulfill that prophecy, Verstappen is the most likely to do so. The key to wagering on that outcome this week, and most others, is how qualifying shakes out. Again, Verstappen is likely to get pole, but if Perez or Leclerc can get that top spot, or beat Verstappen off of the line and be in front in turn 1, there may be a chance Verstappen does not win the race. Odds will change drastically following qualifying if any surprises occur, which means making an early move is the way to go. The same holds true on the manufacturer's front, but by going that route either for the race winner or a podium may be the most palatable option versus selecting any individual driver aside from Verstappen.
While Ferrari has closed the gap to Red Bull, Verstappen still holds a significant race-pace margin over his closest rival. Barring late safety car appearances, or an unexpected and farcical restart like last year, the winning margin stands to be greater than 10 seconds. Verstappen has won both races so far this season by that margin, and it is likely to happen again at Australia. That said, this is a street course, and the farcical ending to last year's race, is a true possibility that could negate Verstappen and Red Bull's winning margin.
