College Football Picks: Vanderbilt vs Missouri Best Bets
Missouri heads to Nashville to face off with Vanderbilt for just the eighth time in program history. There is no long-storied rivalry between these teams; however, the first matchup dates back to 1895. The two teams played back-to-back years in 1895 and 1896 before taking a 61-year break, before a home-and-home series in 1957. They then would not play again until Missouri joined the SEC in 2012, and have since played each other every year. This season is far different from any of the other matchups as Missouri and Vanderbilt will square off as ranked foes for the first time. #15 Missouri rolls into Nashville with a 6-1 record, having only lost to Alabama, while #10 Vanderbilt also holds a 6-1 record, with their lone loss also coming to Alabama.
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Vanderbilt vs Missouri Betting Odds for Week 9
Spread: Missouri +3.5 (ESPNBet); Vanderbilt -2.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Missouri +130 (BetMGM); Vanderbilt -140 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 52.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 53.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Vanderbilt vs Missouri Betting Picks for Week 9
Missouri has gone through the first half of the season with one of the strongest running games in the nation. The Tigers rank first in the SEC and seventh nationally in rushing, averaging 244.9 yards per game. Much of the Tigers' rushing success is due to star running back Ahmad Hardy. Hardy ranks third in all of college football in rushing with 840 yards while ripping off 6.0 yards per carry. When Hardy isn't in the game, there hasn't been a drop off in production whatsoever, as backup Jamal Roberts has averaged 7.3 yards per carry on 53 carries for the year.
The passing game has been a bit of a different story for the Tigers as they rank eighth in the SEC in passing, averaging 244.7 yards per game. While quarterback Beau Pribula has gotten off to a solid start, throwing for over 1,600 yards through seven games, turnovers have been a problem in recent weeks. After starting the season without an interception in the first two games, Pribula has thrown an INT in five straight games, and in the last two games has thrown two interceptions in both.
What has helped the Tigers almost as much as their running game has been an extremely stout defense. The Tigers on the season are second in the SEC in total defense, allowing just 243 yards per game. The Tigers have been equally as strong against the run and the pass on the season, as the Tigers feature the second-best rushing defense and third-best passing defense in the SEC, allowing 83.9 yards per game and 159.1 yards per game, respectively.
Much like Missouri, Vanderbilt has a formidable running game; however, the Commodores go about their rushing attack in a different way. Quarterback Diego Pavia is Vanderbilt's leading rusher on the season with 77 carries for 438 yards, followed by running back Sedrick Alexander with 63 carries for 361 yards on the season. Pavia has also been very effective as a passer, throwing for 1,594 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 70.5% of his passes. The dual threat ability has made Pavia as effective as any quarterback in the SEC to this point of the season as he ranks second amongst quarterbacks in rushing yards and second in passer rating.
The Vanderbilt defense has not been nearly as effective as Missouri's, however, as they rank seventh in the SEC in total defense, allowing 315 yards per game. The rushing defense for the Commodores has been their most effective unit this season as they are allowing 92 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, the pass defense sits at just 12th in the SEC, allowing 223 yards per game.
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Expert Pick: Under 53.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Vanderbilt vs Missouri Predictions for Week 9
Both teams feature run-heavy offenses and strong run defenses. I would expect the running attacks to help shorten the game a bit. Despite Vanderbilt's less-than-stellar pass defense, Missouri's Pribula has struggled to connect on deep passes at times, which will likely limit explosive plays. I think this one sets up for a lower-scoring affair with few explosive plays and heavy ground attacks.
Vanderbilt 21, Missouri 17
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Player Props for Saturday, October 24th
Diego Pavia Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
Missouri has done a great job at containing rushing quarterbacks this year as they have held Kansas' Jalon Daniels to just 25 yards rushing, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers to -28 yards, and Auburn's Jackson Arnold to 14 yards.
Kevin Coleman Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Coleman has been Missouri's most dynamic receiver this year and tends to get a lot of volume as well, with 44 catches for 449 yards on the season. With Vanderbilt's less-than-stellar pass defense, I would expect Coleman to be a featured part of the Tigers' offensive game plan.
