Sugar Bowl Best Bets: Georgia vs Ole Miss
The Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels travel to Atlanta, Georgia, to take part in round two of the College Football Playoff. Georgia enters off a bye in round one, and Mississippi comes in off a win over Tulane in round one. This is a rematch of a contest held in October, where the Bulldogs were victorious in a high-scoring affair. Will Ole Miss get revenge for that game and move on to round three? Will the Bulldogs continue their late-season momentum? Let's find out. We've got college football picks, predictions, and best bets for you for this New Year's Day showdown.
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Georgia vs Ole Miss Betting Odds for the Sugar Bowl
Spread: Georgia -6 (BetMGM); Ole Miss +6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 55.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -235 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Ole Miss +205 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This line opened at Georgia -6.5 and hasn't moved at all in most spots. That's probably due to the fact that when these teams played earlier in the season, Georgia won by eight points. It was a back-and-forth game, which is probably what the public is expecting again. The total hasn't moved either, as it opened at 55.5.
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Georgia vs Ole Miss Betting Picks for the Sugar Bowl
We're now in round two of the CFP, which means that whatever happens from here, the season is a success for Ole Miss. That's not the case for Georgia, however, as it's been a national championship or bust for the Bulldogs for the better part of the past decade.
Though the season is a success no matter the outcome, the Ole Miss Rebels will not be satisfied with a 2nd-round exit, as they played this Bulldog team pretty tough earlier in the season, and they probably think they can pull out a victory this time.
In order to do that, they'll have to shore up the defense. Defense hasn't exactly been a problem for Ole Miss this season, as the Rebels were 30th against the pass and 68th against the run, but in the previous matchup, Georgia was able to do whatever it wanted through the air and on the ground. As for the offense, well, that's been fantastic all season, ranking in the top-3 through the air and 33rd on the ground.
As for Georgia, well, the Bulldogs have been hard to peg all season. Their offense has looked great in spots and pretty tame in others. The defense has been shredded a few times, but it's looked pretty good over the past month. One thing has held true all year, though, and that's their ability to shut down the run game. Georgia ranks 4th in the nation in rush yards allowed per game. The pass defense was pretty bad early in the year, but has since improved. The offense is structured around the run game (31st in the nation) but the pass game has had its moments as well.
The question here is which Georgia team shows up. If it's the team that throttled Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, then Ole Miss doesn't stand much of a chance. If it's the one that faced Tennessee, then the Rebels might be able to win in a shootout.
Considering the Georgia defense has played well for over a month now, I think we can safely say that the game against Tennessee was a bit of a fluke. That's the version of the Georgia defense that Ole Miss caught in October, so if the Rebels are expecting something similar, they're in for a disappointment.
Ole Miss is too good on offense to get completely shut down like Alabama a couple of weeks ago, but I don't see how the Rebels can stop the Georgia offense. Georgia got whatever it wanted against Ole Miss in October and the offense has only gotten better since then.
The Bulldogs are a better version now than the one that Ole Miss saw in October, and when you throw in the fact that Georgia has been in big games like this before, that only strengthens their case. There should be plenty of points scored in this game, but Georgia will be victorious, just like the first match-up. This one, however, might not be as close.
Georgia vs Ole Miss Sugar Bowl Expert Pick: Georgia -6 (BetMGM)
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Georgia vs Ole Miss Predictions for the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Though the game in October was a back-and-forth affair, this game might not resemble that one very much as there are a few new factors in play.
First, as alluded to earlier, this is familiar territory for Georgia; most of the players have been in big games like this, and the stage will not be too big for them. Ole Miss, however, has played in one playoff game, and that was at home against Tulane. I don't know if they'll be ready for this stage.
That, along with the fact that this Georgia defense is much improved, will likely take Ole Miss by surprise early, which is why I'm expecting the Bulldogs to get out of the gate quickly and open up a lead. Once Ole Miss settles in, we should see the Rebels start to move the ball and score some points, but it might be too late as Georgia should be scoring from the get-go.
In the end, this game will not be quite as exciting as the first one, as I'm expecting some separation from Georgia.
Georgia 38 - Ole Miss 24
Georgia vs Ole Miss Sugar Bowl Player Props for Thursday, January 1st
Peyton Woodring, K, Georgia - Over 7.5 Kicking Points (Prize Picks)
Georgia is going to move the ball with ease and score a lot of points. The problem is, I don't know if most of it will be through the air or on the ground. It will probably be on the ground, but will one RB get most of the work or will it be a committee? Most likely a committee, with Gunner Stockton getting some yards and maybe TDs on the ground as well, so with all that uncertainty, I'm looking at the kicker. I figure the Bulldogs should get about five TDs this game, so if we can get just one FG, Woodring will hit this over. If Ole Miss happens to stop Georgia more than once in the Red Zone, then Woodring will sail over this number.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss - Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog)
As mentioned earlier, this is an improved Georgia defense, so while I'm expecting the Rebels to attempt to pass as they did in the first game, I'm not sure they're going to have as much success, so I'm not taking the yards prop. With that said, the ground game isn't going to be a good option against this team, so success or no, they'll have to put the ball up in the air. Chambliss' yards number (251.5) is probably attainable, but I feel more comfortable with attempts as they don't require success to accumulate like yards.
