This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 8 Main Slate Breakdown
The past is the past and all that, but I'll put my hand up and take accountability for last week's plays having far more duds than really any article I can remember writing here. Pounding the table for an Arkansas-Miss State game that had 10 total points and under 200 combined passing yards was especially brutal. We'll flush it and push on to Week 9, though, because that's the only choice we've got. Onward.
Slate Overview
We're presented with quite the challenge right from the jump on this slate. The team with the highest implied total -- Kansas State (!!!) -- is a brain breaker for DFS. The Wildcats are content with rolling out two quarterbacks and why wouldn't they be? They rolled 41-3 over TCU last week while giving Will Howard ($8,500) and Avery Johnson healthy snap shares. Howard was great on a per-play basis last week but his 24.36 fantasy points still lagged considering his $8,900 price tag. Same deal to a lesser extent with Johnson, who posted 14.9 DK Points on an $8,100 salary. Kansas State QB's could combine for 40+ DK points in this spot, but it's critical to mete out the point-per-dollar returns you're getting. I'm not saying to fade either of these quarterbacks, but I'd only consider them in tournaments.
Beyond that, we're looking at some impressive team totals to exploit. Penn State and USC are coming off of dud days and are still expected to score close to 40 points, Oklahoma, Florida State and Texas are all in great spots and we could see bounce-back weeks from the UCF and Texas A&M offenses as well. Below are our college football DFS tools along with my targets for each position.
CFB DFS Tools
- New DraftKings College Football Optimizer
- Weekly CFB Matchup Info
- CFB Targets
- CFB Stats
- CFB Team Trends
- CFB Advanced Team Stats with Plays per Game, Pass %, Run % and more
- CFB Strength of Schedule Metrics
Quarterback
Caleb Williams ($10,500) USC at California
I know, I know. He's basically persona non grata in the college football world right now. Poor play, losses, and some cringey moments with the media will do that in a hurry. In fantasy circles, Williams has also been a dud of late. 26 combined fantasy points against Notre Dame and Utah is not what his backers were hoping for at all. Luckily, California's defense (72nd) is several orders of magnitude worse than what Williams has faced the last two weeks when the Irish and Utes defenses ranked in the top 12 in defensive SP+.
We all know what Williams can do when he's on. Williams was completing 74.5 percent of his passes at 11.4 YPA with a 21:1 TD:INT before his recent cold stretch. This is a critical point for him and the USC season as a whole. A no-show this week would be inexcusable. USC can't afford the no-show, and neither can Williams. The poor play of late coupled with the astronomical $10,500 salary will hopefully keep his roster percentage in check.
John Rhys Plumlee ($7,200) Central Florida vs. West Virginia
Last week marked Plumlee's first fully healthy outing since Week 2. He held his own in a tough spot on the road against Oklahoma, piling up 23.52 DK Points. This week should loosen up a bit; he's got his feet back under him, he's at home, and West Virginia is the opponent.
Plumlee can do it all; he's a talented and athletic runner who can also make big plays through the air to a talented group of pass-catchers. He's at the helm of an offense expected to challenge for 35 points. Look for him to have one of his better games of the season this week, and getting him at a $700 discount compared to last week makes him all the more interesting on this slate.
Max Johnson ($6,500) Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
We'll touch more on South Carolina's defensive shortcomings in the Wide Receiver section, but the bottom line is that the Gamecocks are atrocious against the pass. Tack on the fact that this is a home game for Johnson, who has been solid in these types of softer matchups and we have an interesting sub $7K play at quarterback.
Johnson managed just 22 combined DK points in his last two games, but it's important to remember that those games were against Alabama and at Tennessee. That's a brutal stretch for even the best quarterbacks out there. Now Johnson is coming off a bye and catches a reeling SC defense. Not only is Johnson viable for his price, but his stacking options also have decreased salary figures. Texas A&M is definitely an offense to target on this slate.
Running Back
CJ Donaldson ($6,100) West Virginia at UCF
One of the few things we did get right* last week was targeting UCF's run defense, and we'll go back to that well this week. Donaldson leads the way for the Mountaineer ground game with a 38 percent rushing share in an offense that runs it 63.4 percent of the time -- one of the highest clips in the nation.
The sophomore has admittedly been far less explosive (3.9 YPC) than he was last year (6.0) but he's still getting plenty of volume and he's punching in a score every week like clockwork. A $6,100 price tag for a player like Donaldson in this setup where he's in line for steady work against the worst run defense on the slate is definitely something to keep in mind when building out your running backs this week.
*Marcus Major was fine but not much of a needle-mover overall
Treshaun Ward ($5,800) and DJ Giddens ($6,500) Kansas State vs. Houston
Though sorting out the K-State quarterbacks and pass-catchers is a headache, the backfield is a little more stratified. Giddens and Ward comprise 63 percent of the Wildcats' rushing share and each of them are efficient, averaging at least 5.5 YPC.
Last week, Ward got the most work last week in a blowout script, so that's important to consider this week since Kansas State is heavily favored once again. He should be able to get enough volume to return value at $5,500.
Giddens is a little trickier, but $6,500 is palatable when he's as involved in the passing game as he is (26 TAR, 19 REC, 215 Yds, 1 TD) and routinely getting double-digit carries.
The proverbial fly in the ointment could be Avery Johnson vulturing rushing work and potentially rushing touchdowns. That's a concern for both Ward and Giddens. Still, when K-State is expected to push for 40 points, there's more than enough to go around here.
Nicholas Singleton ($6,300) Penn State vs. Indiana
You gotta feel bad for what Indiana is walking into. Penn State just had its Big Ten Championship (and CFP) dreams dashed last week in a frustrating loss to Ohio State where the offense was stuck in the mud all afternoon. We don't take much from narratives in these articles, but you have to think Penn State is ready to take out its frustrations Saturday afternoon. Sorry, Hoosiers
Singleton cedes carries to Kaytron Allen a fair bit as they have 33 and 30 percent rushing shares, respectively. Still, those are strong rushing shares and Singleton has been the more efficient runner overall of late and though he's a little more expensive than his counterpart, he should be worth every DK dollar this week. Singleton should get 12-15 cracks at an overmatched Indiana defense that coughs up 174 rushing yards per game at a 4.7 YPC clip.
If you're buying this game as a blowout in favor of Penn State, you could do worse than Trey Potts as a $3,400 dart. In each of Penn State's last two blowout wins, he found the end zone. We'll need a touchdown again for that play to pay off because he might top out at seven carries, but this is the perfect setup for that to be in the realm of possibility.
Jaydn Ott ($7,700) California vs. USC
Let's pick on this USC defense a little bit, shall we? The Trojans have the worst rush defense in the PAC-12, which is hard to do when Colorado and Wazzu are both sieves against the run. Nationally, the USC run defense ranks outside the top 100. When you filter to performance against conference opponents, USC is giving up 188 rushing yards per game. USC has also given up a disgusting amount of yardage to opposing running backs in the passing game.
Even if Ott was a middling talent, he'd be appealing in this spot. He's far from that, though. Ott is among the best in college football. Catching him under $8K in this matchup when he's peeling off nearly 6.0 YPC on 19.2 carries per game makes him almost impossible to ignore.
His pass-catching production has fallen off a bit compared to last year's 46-catch, 321-yard campaign; he has just 11 catches for 85 yards on 17 targets through six games. Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get more involved in that facet of the game if Cal takes a page out of the Utah playbook and makes RB targets a staple. USC knows what a wheel route looks like now, but that doesn't mean it can stop one. If you're paying up at RB this week, Ott is the guy.
Others to Consider
Jonathon Brooks, Texas ($7,500); Le'Veon Moss, Texas A&M ($5,200); Sione Vaki, Utah ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Nic Anderson ($5,800) Oklahoma at Kansas
Somehow Anderson is still hanging out under $6K after yet another impressive outing last week against UCF. He caught five of nine targets for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns, extending his touchdown streak to five straight games. Anderson averages 16.8 yards per target -- even though that's just a 23-target sample, that's just silly.
All of this is to say Anderson will be extremely chalky this week. It's good chalk though, the type of chalk we can build around. Kansas' pass defense is nothing to fear and Dillon Gabriel should get enough opportunities to bolster his Heisman candidacy, so this is a great setup for Anderson either as a solo option or as part of a Sooner stack.
Keon Coleman ($7,000) Florida State at Wake Forest
Sometimes when there's a free space on the slate, you've just got to take it. Coleman is exactly that -- he's $7K, the clear No.1 target in the FSU offense, and facing a Wake Forest defense that likely has no answer for him physically. Two potential downsides here are 1.) Johnny Wilson ends up playing and 2.) if this ends up being the proverbial sleepwalk game for the 'Noles. I think even with those factors at play, Coleman is still primed for a big outing. He's 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, averages 9.4 YPT and is scoring a touchdown on well over 10 percent of his targets. Wake Forest won't be able to stop him. It can only hope to contain him.
Evan Stewart ($5,800) Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Stewart has stumbled a bit of late, underperforming his price tag in each of his last four outings. Luckily, the salary has dropped significantly since the last time we saw him ($7,100) and talents like Stewart don't stay down long.
Stewart started the year catching 19 of 29 targets for 257 yards and a pair of touchdowns against New Mexico and Miami (FL). Again, he hasn't been the same since and there were reports suggesting he may have been dealing with a lower leg issue. Luckily, A&M is coming off a bye and that means Stewart has had additional time to get right.
Speaking of get-right, what's a better get-right spot than facing South Carolina at home? The Gamecocks are getting torched in the secondary on a weekly basis to the point that opponents average 304 passing yards per game against them.
Stewart has a 21 percent target share on the year and that figure was much higher earlier in the year when he was fully healthy. Even if he's 85% healthy this week, the targets should go up and the matchup will allow for him to flourish. I love the Aggie offense this week (feels weird to say that) and Stewart should be in for a nice return on the discounted salary.
Others to Consider
Ladd McConkey, Georgia ($5,800); Jayce Brown, Kansas State ($3,900)
GPP Targets
Maalik Murphy ($7,000) Texas vs. BYU
Murphy is the great unknown on this slate. Quinn Ewers is likely out with a shoulder injury and Murphy has been announced as the starter. Now, does that mean that he has the full trust of the staff to run the offense for the whole game, or would a slow start mean that we see Arch Manning? A Manning debut is a reasonable concern, but Texas needs to be careful with him anyway. I expect a run-heavy game plan from Texas here against BYU's soft rush defense, so passing yardage might not be what carries Murphy's day for fantasy purposes. However, Murphy has a cannon for an arm and could be looking for deep shots when the situation dictates it. He's also a load to bring down when he's on the move at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds.
In the words of Gene Belcher, "Could go great, could be a disaster."
Chris Bell ($3,300) Louisville vs. Duke
Louisville has one of the best passing attacks in the nation, averaging 285.7 yards per game through the air. Jamari Thrash ($6,100) is a well-known commodity already and is a good play this week in his own right, but if we're looking for cheaper exposure to the Louisville passing game, Bell is interesting.
Bargain-bin price at $3,300 with strong showings in two of his last three games (seven catches on 11 targets for 133 yards and two touchdowns), Bell should be working his way into a larger role coming off the bye.
Oscar Delp ($3,400) Georgia vs. Florida
We discussed Delp in this section in Georgia's last game with Delp as a possible garbage-time hero. Well, things didn't turn out the way I wanted (Georgia fan here, sorry) with Brock Bowers going out with an ankle injury that will shelf him indefinitely. However, the silver lining is that Delp is now in line for a much larger role this week coming out of the bye with weeks of preparation for this game.
Delp won't just step into Bowers' role, but the tight-end function isn't being deleted from this passing game, either. Sure, more targets will be heading out to the wide receivers. That's fine. At $3,400, Delp may only need 3-4 targets to return value. That's not much to ask out of a starting tight end in this offense. On the year, Delp has caught 13 of 17 targets for 160 yards and two touchdowns. That's promising efficiency for a player looking at an expanded role going forward.