This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 11 Main Slate Breakdown
First of all, big shoutout to Chris Morgan for covering this article while I attended RotoWire legend Nick Whalen's wedding. There were some spicy picks in there that I hope you all cashed in on.
Now onto this week. I can't believe we only have three weeks left of the regular season. Rather than ruminate on the short time we have left this season, let's embrace what we have in front of us. This slate is great on paper. Marquee matchups, high-scoring games, and 13 teams checking in with implied totals of 29.0 points or more. There are a ton of ways to attack this slate as a result, so let's dig in.
Slate Overview
Because there are so many high totals and narrow spreads, the chalky games should be spread out nicely for our purposes this weekend. Some will attack the Tulane side of Tulane-Tulsa, UCF-Oklahoma looks like it will be a scoring bonanza, and the likes of KU-Texas Tech, Cal-Wazzu and Colorado-Arizona all have game-stacking appeal.
Colorado, Tulsa and California are on the podium as the worst pass defenses on this slate, while Georgia Tech, UCF and Colorado are the most vulnerable against the run. Let's have a look at the individual players we'll be targeting this weekend.
CFB DFS Tools
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Quarterback
Maybe I'm naive, but I don't see Penix and Washington doing to Utah what Bo Nix and Oregon did, even with that Oregon game taking place in Salt Lake City while this week's matchup is at UW. $10,800 is a ton to sink into one player, even the Heisman frontrunner. Penix hasn't had a game that would be 3x value to this salary since he lit up Michigan State all the way back in Week 3. I don't think he's a bad play, I would just prefer to save over $1K of my salary on a quarterback who projects in the same range as Penix.
Cameron Ward ($8,500) Washington State 
at California 
Putting up nine fantasy points against Stanford (!) does not scream "Cam Ward this week, no matter what." And that's not even Ward's lowest total this season as he's had rough outings against UCLA and Arizona. He also hasn't thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 4 (!!) against Oregon State.
Playing against California will hopefully cure what's ailing Ward of late, though. Interestingly, Ward actually has significantly better splits on the road than he does at home. Check it out:
That's, on average, nearly five full points better on the road versus home. 75 more yards per game on the road. 14 more attempts per game on the road. That's staggering at this stage of the season.
He has some other tailwinds working in his favor as well. California has one of the worst pass defenses on this slate; the Golden Bears allow 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. So while Ward can be dinged for being more of a dink-and-dunk specialist, there's a chance that the matchup results in more explosive production through the air.
Tack on the fact that his top pass-catchers are all reasonably priced and that there are some decent run-back options if you want to stack this game and Ward becomes a solid option this week.
Fernando Mendoza ($5,900) California vs. Washington State
Speaking of game stack options for this slate, Mendoza needs consideration if you're deploying Ward. I don't knock Mendoza for having a brutal outing against Oregon last week and if anything, that helped keep his salary at a very favorable level this week.
Beyond the cheap salary, Mendoza has been playing at a solid level since taking over as the starter. In the three games prior to the Oregon debacle, Mendoza was humming along at a 22.4 DK PPG clip. A 34.5-point outing against USC is doing some heavy lifting in that sample, but at $5,900 we'd be happy with anything over 18 points. And with him being at home against a middling Wazzu defense, that's certainly in the realm of possibility. He's a decent passer (63.6 completion rate, 7.4 YPA, 6 TD in that 3-game sample) with a little bit of rushing ability (19/101/2) to boot.
If you're honing in on this game for your lineup build, or just want a cheap quarterback, Mendoza definitely checks the boxes this week.
Jalen Milroe ($9,000) Alabama 
at Kentucky
Maybe we're buying high on Milroe after his unbelievable performance against a terrible LSU defense at home last week. But maybe that was Milroe finally putting all of his tools together, and that would make him and the Tide very scary down the stretch.
Alabama is favored by just 11.0 points with an implied total of 29.0, but I'm of the belief that the Tide rolls here. Kentucky is rock solid but not built to hang with teams with elite talent, so the 'Cats are in trouble this weekend.
Milroe has a howitzer for an arm and at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds with wheels, he's a force when he takes off as a runner. Alabama keeps a lid on his pass attempts generally -- he's only surpassed 30 pass attempts once this season -- but he smooths over that by averaging 10.4 yards per attempt. He's also throwing a touchdown on seven percent of his passes. So, look for him to be explosive through the air even if the attempt volume is low. Adding on, his rushing upside is substantial. We can't expect another 155-yard, four-touchdown game on the ground necessarily, but something similarly devastating is not out of the question.
Milroe being $100 cheaper than J.J. McCarthy on this slate is a joke.
Noah Fifita ($6,000) Arizona 
at Colorado
Fifita, a redshirt freshman, has been nails since taking over the starting job in Week 5. He debuted as the starter and promptly threw three touchdowns against Washington. Over his last five games, Fifita is completing 75.1 percent of his passes at an 8.0 YPA clip with 14 touchdowns against four picks. He doesn't offer much as a runner, but his potential to challenge for 300+ yards and multiple passing touchdowns helps his appeal.
By the numbers, Colorado has the worst pass defense on the slate in terms of passing yards allowed per game (300.7). If you're concerned about Fifita on the road, keep in mind that Colorado gives up 308.2 passing yards per game in Boulder. His stacking options aren't as cheap as Cam Ward's, but there are still plenty of factors working in Fifita's favor this weekend.
Others to Consider
Joe Milton, Tennessee 
($7,800); Michael Pratt, Tulane ($8,200)
Running Back
We have some of the best running backs in the country on display on this slate. Blake Corum ($8,200), Ollie Gordon ($7,900), and Ray Davis ($7,800) are three of the top ten scorers in fantasy points per game. One of these is not like the other when it comes to this slate, though. Corum and the Wolverines go on the road to face a Penn State defense that allows 60.33 rushing yards per game -- 2nd-best in the nation. It's not much rosier of a projection for Davis as the Wildcats face an Alabama defense that allows 119.56 rushing yards per game -- 32nd in the nation. The Tide allowed 100 rushing yards per game in October but were gashed by LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels to the tune of 163 yards last weekend. Alabama can stop a traditional run game, so this doesn't look great for Davis backers.
Then we have Ollie Gordon. He is college football's leading rusher going into this week (1,224) despite ranking sixth in rush attempts. That's because he's tearing off 7.03 YPC and has diced up far better defenses than the one he's facing this week in UCF. The Knights allow 212 rushing yards per game and have given up 23 rushing scores -- the fourth-most in the nation. Gordon will be the chalkiest of chalk plays this week, but it's good chalk. He's under $8K so you still have lineup flexibility and this is as good of a matchup as you could ask for. Gordon is college football's workhorse right now, and he'll get plenty of cracks at a bad UCF defense. Lock him in and figure out the rest.
Now, let's look at the rest...
Blake Corum ($8,200) Michigan 
at Penn State 
I mentioned the tough setup for Corum and the Wolverines in the preamble, but I'm still interested in him this week. The Gordon mega-chalk play for $300 less than Corum signals that the field might be underweight on Corum relative to most weeks. I think even with the brutal matchup, there's reason to believe Corum still gets us home. This is a player Michigan leaned on 25 or more times on six occasions last season, and that figure would likely have been higher if not for his late-season knee injury.
Michigan has smartly kept a lid on Corum's volume this season because, well, it hasn't needed to run him into the ground thanks to blowout wins every week. His season-high for carries came in Week 4 against Rutgers when he toted it 21 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns (not bad, Rutgers...)
That'll be different this week. Corum is the key to the Michigan offense and, arguably, this game. Penn State may be able to hold Corum to a low YPC figure, but Michigan's offense is inevitable. If Michigan hits its implied total (25.25), it wouldn't shock me if Corum had three touchdowns adding to that tally.
Arizona's Backfield vs. Colorado
I'm drawn to this angle not to pick on Colorado's run defense -- it's actually gotten a lot better of late -- but because I'm intrigued by what the Cats have in their backfield. Michael Wiley ($4,500) was the lead back early in the season but missed close to a month with an injury and has just six carries over the last two weeks. He looked like himself as a runner last week against a tough UCLA run defense, though, taking four carries for 26 yards. Wiley also caught five targets for 58 yards and a pair of scores against Oregon State. However, the latest reports indicate that Wiley may have tweaked his ankle injury against the Bruins.
Jonah Coleman ($4,300) is the Arizona back I'll be targeting the most. In addition to the price and Wiley's questionable status, he has performed extremely well as the lead back this season. Over his last four games, Coleman has averaged 15.3 carries for 345 yards (5.7 YPC) to go with three rushing scores. He's also caught all 10 of his targets in that span for 131 yards. He's got burst and at 5-foot-9 and 225 pounds, he's basically like trying to tackle an angry fire hydrant.
Colorado's run defense has stiffened up after an abysmal start, allowing just 3.53 YPC and 133 rushing yards per game in October. It won't be a cakewalk for Coleman, but if he's in line for 15+ carries, he can absolutely do some damage relative to his salary figure.
If you're looking for a bargain bin option at running back this week, Rayshon Luke ($3,000) is min-priced and should see some work if Wiley is sidelined. Keep an eye on the injury report going into this one when it comes to Wiley because if he's out, Luke has some serious jets. He's nicknamed Speedy and was an All-American in high school. He has 27 carries for 142 yards on the season and three catches for 98 yards on five targets. Small samples on both fronts, but I've had my eye on him since his MVP performance in the 2022 All-American Bowl.
Clemson Backfield vs. Georgia Tech
Will Shipley ($5,900) potentially returning throws a wrench in some things because what Phil Mafah ($5,700) did last weekend against Notre Dame (36 carries, 186 yards, two touchdowns) would have made him a slam dunk play this weekend.
Shipley is returning from a concussion so his workload may be capped on principle, and it makes sense for Clemson to ride the hot hand anyway with how Mafah played last weekend.
The safety net for targeting this Clemson backfield is the matchup. Georgia Tech has been fun and frisky this year (it hurts me to say that) but giving up 220 rushing yards per game is, uh, slightly problematic.
Clemson's passing game leaves a lot to be desired but the offense seems to have found a spark on the ground with Mafah. If Shipley is in, which appears it will be the case, drafters might take Mafah off their board. That's reasonable enough, Mafah hasn't topped 11 carries in any game while spelling Shipley. But Shipley hasn't had a game remotely close to what Mafah put on tape last week and I expect him to be the primary back in a soft matchup. Shipley is worth a share or two, but I'll mostly be targeting Mafah in lineups where I'm looking at running backs from this tier.
Others to Consider
Jadyn Ott ($7,500) California vs. Washington State; Tahj Brooks ($7,700) Texas Tech at Kansas; Daniel Hishaw ($5,100) Kansas vs. Texas Tech; Makhi Hughes ($5,800) Tulane vs. Tulsa
Wide Receiver
Theo Wease ($5,100) Missouri 
vs. Tennessee
Regardless of Luther Burden's status this weekend, Wease needs to be in consideration. The field may be light on Missouri exposure to begin with, considering that Tennessee has the No.20 ranked defense by SP+ and Mizzou's implied total (28.5) is below the median on this slate. That's fine. More for us.
While Tennessee has a very strong pass defense, the Vols' calling card on that side of the ball is against the run. Cody Schrader has been great for the Tigers this year, but I don't see him generating much against this front. Thus, Mizzou will likely be steered toward the pass regardless of the score.
Now, if Burden plays it will draw some attention away from Wease, leading to more favorable coverage setups for the Oklahoma transfer. If Burden is out, Wease will get plenty of attention from the Vols but also would project for 10+ targets. Wease is humming along with 6.9 targets per game at an 8.3 YPT efficiency with five touchdowns on 40 receptions. He is a legitimate talent that can hurt almost any defense. And no matter what Burden's status is this weekend, there are solid paths to Wease returning solid value at $5,100.
Coy Eakin ($3,900) Texas Tech 
at Kansas 
Predicting the right Texas Tech receiver has long been my White Whale in these DFS articles, so take this with a grain of salt. The Red Raiders spread the ball around -- five players have target shares north of nine percent and no Red Raider has a target share over 20 percent. Jerand Bradley ($5,300) leads this group so if you can squeeze him into your lineup, he's a fine enough play.
Eakin caught my eye recently, though. He notched his first 100-yard game in a tough matchup against Kansas State in Week 7 then snagged all of his team-leading eight targets last week against TCU. He has at least four targets in each of his last three games, which is a fine enough figure for a $3,900 player. However, two of those games have featured target counts of seven and eight. That means he's starting to establish himself in this offense.
It's also worth noting that Xavier White checks in at $3,900 and has been a more consistent contributor than Eakin this season. There's some risk with Eakin but at the same time, this is a Texas Tech team that ranks inside the Top 20 in pass attempts per game (36.8) and is a slight underdog on the road. There will be targets to go around and even 5-6 targets could get the job done with Eakin's efficiency of late.
Javon Baker ($5,900) UCF 
vs. Oklahoma State 
It's always a challenge in college football DFS to find the right balance between trusting season-long trends vs. jumping in on what's been happening lately. Well, lately, Baker has been on fire in terms of explosiveness. Over his last three games, he has caught 12 of 18 targets for 261 yards (14.5 YPT with a 21.7% target share). He has no fewer than five targets in any of those games.
Oklahoma State's defense is solid this season but not unbeatable (8.1 YPA allowed through the air), and with the 'Pokes likely leading throughout, UCF should have to lean on the passing game. If that's not the case and UCF tries to go for more of a ball control sort of approach, that doesn't hurt Baker's projection much given how efficient he is on a per-target basis. At this rate, five targets should be enough to get the job done for Baker.
In all, Baker offers a different type of skill set than some of the other receivers in this tier. There are others with great volume projections but lack explosiveness and touchdown upside. Baker has less of a floor than those types, but if you're chasing explosiveness from this tier, he's your guy.
Lincoln Victor ($5,800) Washington State at California
On the other end of the spectrum from Baker in this tier, we have Victor. The 5.7 YPT mark over the last four games does not stand out, but drawing 41 targets in that span (including 37 in the last three) and catching 78 percent of them certainly does.
It's important to note that was a little dinged up earlier this week but did practice Wednesday so while we expect him to play, it's important to stay on top of RotoWire's college football news on gameday to make sure that's confirmed. If Victor's in, he'll be in line for double-digit targets against a leaky Cal pass defense that gives up 283 passing yards per game on 8.5 YPA.
If Victor is out Saturday, Kyle Williams ($5,700) and Josh Kelly ($5,600) are solid pivots that still get you quality exposure to the Wazzu pass game.
Chris Brazzell ($5,400) Tulane 
vs. Tulsa 
Tulsa-Tulane has an over/under of just 53.5 points. However, Tulane has the highest implied total on the slate at 38.5 points. Everything points to the Wave rolling here as Tulsa can't stop a nosebleed on defense, especially through the air (298.4 Yds/G; 8.7 YPA).
Tulane isn't an overly pass-happy offense (39 percent pass rate) but when Michael Pratt drops back, he's going deep and he's connecting more often than not. Brazell's season-high in targets is just six, but he's still humming along at a 10.8 YPT mark that could go even higher after this weekend's game.
Lawrence Keys leads the way in this passing attack but at $6,200, I'd prefer to take the savings and still get a player with explosive upside. Both are viable and priced to where you can squeeze them in with Pratt for a Tulane stack.
