DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 7

This is a big week for college football, even if we have to hear people say "Red River Rivalry" over and over. Also, even though the theoretically exciting SEC matchup between Florida and LSU will feature Kyle Trask prominently involved. I'm not here to give big-picture analysis and throw on a mascot head for giggles, though. I'm here to help you with your DFS decisions. The numbers in parentheses after stats are FBS rankings, DraftKings is shortened to "DK" and usually FanDuel is shortened to "FD." However, as of the time of this writing FanDuel only has its Thursday and Friday contests up. So instead I've picked eight games from DraftKings' day slate and four from its night slate. When FanDuel posts its Saturday schedule, I am sure some of this information will still be able to help you. Let's get to the Week 7 schedule!

South Carolina (+25) at Georgia , O/U 52.5, 12:00 PM ET

South Carolina stats: 74.5 plays per game (40), 346.8 yards per game (101), 28.0 points allowed per game (59), 421.8 yards allowed per game (73)

Georgia stats: 64.0 plays per game (123), 500.5 yards per game (8), 9.2 points allowed per game (5), 277.2 yards allowed per game (9)

It's a little surprising to see Georgia running so few plays per game given how tenacious and formidable their defense has been. That does not speak to a team that is hurrying to the line to run as many plays as possible, though its offense has clearly still made plenty of impact. I have no faith in South Carolina's offense against the Bulldogs' defense, especially since Ryan Hilinski has slowed down after his surprisingly good game against Alabama.

The tricky thing about Georgia, even though they rank eighth in yards per game, is that they really have spread the ball around. No receiver has more than 15 catches for 197 yards. They run the ball a ton, which eats clock, and have two backs in D'Andre Swift ($7,200 DK) and Brian Herrien ($5,200 DK) that have spilt the carries fairly evenly actually. Swift has more talent, but Herrien still has 40 carries for 251 yards and four touchdowns. If I was choosing between the two, I would probably go with him and save money to spend elsewhere.

Prediction: Georgia completely shuts down South Carolina, and then rides its running game to an easy win. Georgia 27, South Carolina 7

Oklahoma (-10.5) at Texas , O/U 75.5, 12:00 PM ET

Oklahoma stats: 64.6 plays per game (121), 622.0 yards per game (1), 20.2 points allowed per game (29), 348.2 yards allowed per game (38)

Texas stats: 76.2 plays per game (19), 485.2 yards per game (17), 26.6 points allowed per game (57), 441.8 yards allowed per game (88)

Expect a TON of offense in this one. The Sooners may rank low in plays per game, but only because they are absolutely crushing it every time they touch the ball. Here's how good they are offensively: They are notching 60 more yards per game than LSU, who ranks second in that category. Of course, Texas is killing it too, running a ton of plays and doing  a lot with them. Jalen Hurts versus Sam Ehlinger. I'm pumped for this.

Even at a lofty price, I can't say no to Jalen Hurts ($9,000 DK). He's been amazing this year. In addition to throwing for 1,523 yards, 14 touchdowns, and two picks, he leads the Sooners in rushing with 499 yards and five touchdowns. I mentioned LSU, who ranks second in yards per game, earlier. The Tigers dropped 45 points on the Longhorns. The Sooners could do something similar. As such, I'd also consider Oklahoma receiver Charleston Rambo ($6,400 DK). He's averaged 27.4 yards per reception and scored four touchdowns. I'm not afraid of Texas' players, by the way. I expect a ton of offense in this one.

Prediction: I expect a ton of offense in this one. Wait, I just said that. I am using that 45-38 LSU-Texas game as a blueprint for this one, right down to the Longhorns being on the losing end. Oklahoma 45, Texas 38

Alabama (+17) at Texas A&M , O/U 61, 3:30 PM ET

Alabama stats: 67.8 plays per game (98), 555.0 yards per game (3), 14.8 points allowed per game (11), 325.6 yards allowed per game (29)

Texas A&M stats: 71.8 plays per game (63), 374.8 yards per game (85), 21.5 points allowed per game (35), 326.2 yards allowed per game (30)

Has the Alabama defense…slowed down a bit? I mean, those are great numbers in a vacuum, but we're used to seeing the Tide in the top 10 in the big defensive stats. I'm not saying I want to load up on Aggies. In fact, I'd probably still avoid them. I mean, Jhamon Ausbon ($5,700 DK) could still be worth a shot, but I wouldn't exactly recommend him.

Strange as it may sound, as the Bama offense has been quite impressive, I only have one player to recommend here. That's mostly because Texas A&M does have a pretty good defense. However, I am happy to jump on DeVonta Smith ($6,500 DK), who is somehow the third-most-expensive receiver for the Tide on DraftKings. He has 537 yards and eight touchdown receiving. Both lead the Tide.

Prediction: Pity the poor Aggies. They've already played Clemson and Auburn. Now they have to play Alabama. They lost those first two games. They will lose this one as well. Prediction: Alabama 34, Texas A&M 20

Washington State (+2.5) at Arizona State , O/U 59, 3:30 PM ET

Washington State stats: 67.6 plays per game (64), 535.0 yards per game (4), 34.0 points allowed per game (100), 466.8 yards allowed per game (104)

Arizona State stats: 65.4 plays per game (95), 372.2 yards per game (86), 16.2 points allowed per game (15), 331.0 yards allowed per game (31)

It's a little surprising to see Wazzu middle of the pack in plays per game. That's partially because they are racking up the yards in big chunks, but it's also because their defense has been bad. Tracy Claeys is out at defensive coordinator. They gave up 38 points to Utah's mediocre offense two weeks ago, and who can forget when they gave up 67 points to UCLA. The Sun Devils do not have a good offense, but it seems like that doesn't matter right now. On the flip side, even with these defensive numbers for Arizona State I'm not concerned about the big guns for Washington State. That offense transcends.

Anthony Gordon ($8,200 DK) is coming off a bad start, but I'm not worried. He's a quarterback in a Mike Leach offense. The numbers are always likely to be there. Gordon has thrown for 2,146 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six picks through five games. Don't be surprised if this is a bounce back week for Gordon. Speaking of bounce backs, Eno Benjamin ($7,500 DK) got off to a somewhat slow start to the year, at least based on the standards of the 1,642 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns he had last season. Well he has five touchdowns over his last two games. I expect him to add to that in this one.

Prediction: Washington State's offense does what it normally does, but Arizona State has what will end up being its best offensive day of the year, led by Benjamin. Arizona State 41, Washington State 31

Florida State (+27) at Clemson , O/U 60.5, 3:30 PM ET

Florida State stats: 73.0 plays per game (25), 429.4 yards per game (43), 29.6 points allowed per game (69), 447.0 yards allowed per game (92)

Clemson stats: 68.6 plays per game (86), 486.0 yards per game (16), 12.0 points allowed per game (7), 255.2 yards allowed per game (4)

For all the hand-wringing about Clemson's offense, here they are still ranked 16th in yards per game. The concerns are valid, though, mostly because Trevor Lawrence is not the Heisman hopeful we expected him to be. He's only thrown for eight touchdowns against five picks. Hey, at least his hair is still luxurious. Also, the Seminoles have allowed over 300 yards per game passing, and the best quarterback they've faced is…Bryce Perkins?

Needless to say, I'm not recommending you go with any Seminoles this week. While Lawrence has disappointed, Travis Etienne ($7,100 DK) has mostly lived up to expectations. He's averaged 6.9 yards per carry and scored five touchdowns. While I won't recommend Lawrence, Florida State's defensive woes lead me to recommend receiver Tee Higgins ($6,300 DK). He's turned his 22 catches into a whopping 505 yards and three touchdowns.

Prediction: Lawrence looks better, if not great, but it's enough, along with Clemson's great defense, to carry the team to an easy win over Florida State. Clemson 30, Florida State 13

Michigan State (+10) at Wisconsin , O/U 38.5, 3:30 PM ET

Michigan State stats: 70.8 plays per game (65), 393.5 yards per game (71), 18.2 points allowed per game (21), 300.2 yards allowed per game (15)

Wisconsin stats: 71.8 plays per game (52), 457.0 yards per game (25), 5.8 points allowed per game (1), 182.0 yards allowed per game (1)

Well Wisconsin has the best defense in the FBS. It has three shutouts. Do I need to say anything else about the Badgers? Do I need to tell you to steer so clear of Michigan State that you end up in Ohio? On the other hand, Michigan State's defense is also really good! Sure, the team just gave up 34 points to Ohio State, but that's not so bad. The 31 points that Indiana scored are puzzling, though.

Look, there is obviously only one player I can recommend in this game. Spoiler: He doesn't play for Michigan State. It's Jonathan Taylor ($8,800 DK). It has to be Taylor. He's tied for third in the FBS in rushing yards. He already has 16 total touchdowns, which is as much as he had all of last season. Taylor is tearing it up. Even against Michigan State there's nothing to fear with Taylor. He's as plug-and-play as it gets.

Prediction: This is a low-scoring defensive affair, but hopefully more fun than the Michigan versus Iowa game. Taylor, naturally, scores and leads the Badgers to the win. Wisconsin 17, Michigan State 6

Texas Tech (+9) at Baylor , O/U 58.0, 4:00 PM ET

Texas Tech stats: 79.0 plays per game (34), 432.0 yards per game (40), 30.2 points allowed per game (76), 446.2 yards allowed per game (91)

Baylor stats: 66.6 plays per game (105), 425.5 yards per game (27), 15.0 points allowed per game (12), 313.5 yards allowed per game (21)

Undefeated Baylor has had an easy schedule, but they've handled it with aplomb. It's weird to see the Red Raiders not ranked in the top 20 in yards per game, but this is a new era under Matt Wells. I think the Bears will be able to largely shut them down. On the other hand, this matchup could be in Baylor's favor in another way. The Bears have averaged 204.4 rushing yards per game, while the Red Raiders have given up 187.6 rushing yards per contest.

So yeah, targeting the Baylor rushing game works in theory, but there is a sticky wicket to deal with. The Bears spread the ball around a ton. Five different players have gotten at least 17 carries, and a good chunk of their yards came from Gerry Bohanon, who is Baylor's backup quarterback. As such, let's go with John Lovett ($5,000 DK). Not to be confused with John Lovitz, the Baylor back has 42 carries for 312 yards and three touchdowns. He could be the ticket to success.

Prediction: Baylor's defensive prowess keeps giving its offense the ball, and the run game eats up yards and clock. This will be a quick-moving, low-scoring game, which is not great for DFS purposes. Baylor 28, Texas Tech 13

Iowa State (-10.5) at West Virginia , 4:00 PM ET

Iowa State stats: 68.2 plays per game (114), 493.2 yards per game (12), 21.2 points allowed per game (30), 369.5 yards allowed per game (43)

West Virginia stats: 69.4 points per game (61), 368.2 yards per game (88), 32.8 points allowed per game (94), 400.8 yards allowed per game (64)

I was down on West Virginia's offense after its first couple of games, but it has improved since. They dropped 44 on North Carolina State, and just scored 31 against Texas. Sure, they allowed 42, but at least its offense is moving a bit. Speaking of offenses that have gotten moving, Iowa State scored 49 points on TCU last week, but the game prior they were held to 21 by Baylor. Of course, Baylor is 12th in points allowed per game, so that's forgivable.

I don't have anybody to recommend from the Mountaineers. Sam James would have been under consideration, but he got banged up last week and is now questionable. He's not so good as to be worth the risk. Brock Purdy's ($8,000 DK) status as basically the whole Iowa State offense makes him usually a reliable option. Like his fellow Big 12 quarterback Jalen Hurts, Purdy leads his team in rushing yards and rushing scores. He's also thrown for 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Also, while Deshaunte Jones ($5,400 DK) only has one touchdown this year, he has 37 catches for 444 yards. If he keeps that up, the touchdowns will come.

Prediction: Brock Purdy powers the Cyclones to a win over the Mountaineers, though Neal Brown's crew looks respectable on offense. Iowa State 34, West Virginia 20

USC (+11) at Notre Dame , O/U 57, 7:30 PM ET

USC stats : 67.4 plays per game (92), 429.4 yards per game (44), 24.8 points allowed per game (42), 411.6 yards allowed per game (69)

Notre Dame stats: 62.4 plays per game (124), 450.2 yards per game (29), 14.8 points allowed per game (10), 332.4 yards allowed per game (33)

Notre Dame just got to beat up on Bowling Green, which boosted its offensive numbers a bit. It also makes sense to me why they've run so few plays per game. They've got a really good defense, and Ian Book isn't the kind of quarterback you want slinging the ball all over the field. Speaking of which, that's what USC wanted to do this year, but quarterback injuries have put a kink in those plans. Clay Helton has expressed pessimism about Kedon Slovis playing this week, which would mean third-stringer Matt Fink under center. That also means me waving adios to the USC offense in this matchup. As much as I like the talent of their receiving corps, I don't believe Fink can get them the ball properly against Notre Dame's defense.

I would probably prefer to steer clear of this game entirely, but I do kind of like Tony Jones ($5,200 DK), the lead running back for the Fighting Irish. He's gotten the bulk of the carries, and he's averaged 6.9 yards per carry as well. If anybody on this offense seems likely to pay off, it's Jones.

Prediction: If Fink is at the helm of USC's offense, it's going to be ugly. Book does a solid enough job, and the Fighting Irish control the game en route to a fairly easy win. Notre Dame 28, USC 13

Penn State (-4.5) at Iowa , O/U 41.5, 7:30 PM ET

Penn State stats: 69.2 plays per game (101), 457.0 yards per game (24), 7.5 points allowed per game (2), 264.2 yards allowed per game (6)

Iowa stats: 68.2 plays per game (30), 424.2 yards per game (50), 8.8 points allowed per game (3), 255.0 yards allowed per game (3)

Yeah…this is probably going to be a defensively-minded game. I am reminded of last week, when Iowa lost 10-3 to Michigan. Penn State has a better defense than Michigan, of course. They have a really talented quarterback in Sean Clifford. And yet, Iowa ranks third in both points and yards allowed, and it is at home. Penn State has been just as good. Points are going to be at a premium.

I am definitely skipping any Hawkeyes in this one. I have visions of Nate Stanley getting sacked eight times and throwing three picks last week against the Wolverines dancing in my head. The only player I can really get hyped for is Clifford ($7,200 DK), and even there my enthusiasm is curbed by Iowa's defense. I do believe in his talent, though. He's thrown for 1,443 yards, rushed for 200 more, and totaled 14 touchdowns.

Prediction: For the second week in a row, Iowa plays in a game where the point total is under 30, and once again they lose. Penn State 14, Iowa 6

Nebraska (+7.5) at Minnesota , O/U 50.5         7:30 PM ET

Nebraska stats: 70.3 plays per game (51), 418.3 yards per game (56), 26.5 points allowed per game (54), 383.8 yards allowed per game (52)

Minnesota stats: 67.8 plays per game (48), 434.5 yards per game (36), 28.8 points allowed per game (64), 301.2 yards allowed per game (16)

The Cornhuskers got buzz for being a sleeper in the Big 10 this year. Indeed, so far they are 4-2, and they certainly seem to have found a consistent level, given that they rank between 51 and 56 in the four stats I cited. However, it's actually the Golden Gophers that have been the surprise of the Big 10 thus far. Minnesota is undefeated, though admitted it has been an easy schedule. Its toughest opponent so far has been…Fresno State maybe? And that game went into double overtime, which helped pad Minnesota's offense stats (but also admittedly hurt its defensive stats).

The Cornhuskers rely pretty heavily on Adrian Martinez, but he's currently questionable with a knee injury. Whether or not he plays, Nebraska may have to rely more on its running game, and I like the price on Dedrick Mills ($5,200 DK). It's been a wild ride for Mills. He rushed for 12 touchdowns as a freshman at Georgia Tech…in 2016. Mills was booted from the team for drug violations, spent the last couple seasons in JUCO, and now he's with the Cornhuskers where he has six touchdowns through six games. While Nebraska has been solid against the pass (naturally they rank 52nd in passing yards allowed per contest) I still like Rashod Bateman ($6,200). He has 537 yards on 23 catches through five games.

Prediction: I don't expect Minnesota to go undefeated, and I think Nebraska can give them a real test, but the Golden Gophers will win because of the strength of its passing game and the questions about Martinez's health. Minnesota 31, Nebraska 24

Florida (+13.5) at LSU , O/U 54.5 8:00 PM ET

Florida stats: 65.2 plays per game (111), 395.5 yards per game (69), 14.2 points per game (8), 305.8 yards allowed per game (19)

LSU stats: 78.0 plays per game (18), 561.2 yards per game (2), 21.2 points allowed per game (31), 292.5 yards allowed per game (12)

It's the seventh-ranked Gators versus the fifth-ranked Tigers…and the Gators are almost two-touchdown underdogs. That makes sense, to be honest. Kyle Trask has been an adequate game manager, to use that loaded phrase, but even at full health I wouldn't trust him against this defense. On top of that, he has a knee issue at the moment. It's a little surprising to see LSU ranked 31st in points allowed, but the yards allowed is more along the lines of what we expect.

The real interesting matchup is LSU's offense against Florida's defense. We're used to the Gators having a great defense, but the evolution of the Tigers' offense is staggering. They are running a ton of plays and racking up huge chunks of yards. What can LSU's receivers do against Florida's secondary? The Gators have only allowed 183.0 yards per game passing. That means I can't really bet on the LSU passing game like I have in the past, and will in the future. If you must, though, bet on the talent of Justin Jefferson ($7,100 DK). He has 30 catches for 547 yards and seven touchdowns. It'll be hard for him to entirely be shut down, but lower your expectations a tad.

Prediction: Florida's offense is going to be a disaster. I am less sure about what LSU's offense will do, but it will be enough for the win. LSU 24, Florida 9