DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 6

'Welcome to October! The page of the calendar has turned, but the college football season is still going strong. We've got a pretty good handle on these teams now as we get into the throes of conference play. There's a lot of intrigue for another week of college football DFS. Here's some info to give you a bit of an assist in setting your DFS lineups. Consider me like the coordinator to your head coach. Just hope you aren't Chris Ash in this scenario. The numbers in parentheses after the stats are national rankings, FD is FanDuel and DK is DraftKings. Let's get to it!

Cheat Sheets

Oklahoma State (-9.5) at Texas Tech, 12:00 PM ET

Oklahoma State stats: 76.8 plays per game (27), 520.2 yards per game (7), 26.5 points allowed per game (57), 396.5 yards allowed per game (60)

Texas Tech stats: 73.7 plays per game (46), 380.7 yards per game (77), 28.7 points allowed per game (64), 425.3 yards allowed per game (77)

It would seem, in hiring Matt Wells, the Red Raiders sacrificed their status as an offensive dynamo to improve their defense from terrible to…well, middling. That does make them a slightly less favorable matchup than in the past, but these numbers aren't concerning to me related to Oklahoma State's offense. Mike Gundy doesn't have quite as good of a quarterback as he's had in the past, Spencer Sanders only has eight touchdowns against five interceptions, but the 'Pokes still have a top-10 offense.

With Alan Bowman out for Texas Tech, I'm down on its offense in this matchup, even though the Cowboys are middle-of-the-pack defensively. Oklahoma State is basically a two man offense, but those men are so good that they are basically matchup proof, and also worth the lofty price they cost. Chuba Hubbard ($8,900 DK, $10,600 FD) is averaging almost 200 yards per game, and he has 10 touchdowns through five contests. In the passing game, Tylan Wallace ($7,300 DK, $9,400 FD) is the first, second, and third option. That's how he has 618 yards and six touchdowns already.

Prediction: The Cowboys rely on their two studs, and it works out against a Red Raiders team missing its starting quarterback. Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 23

Utah State (+26) at LSU, 12:00 PM ET

Utah State stats: 80.7 plays per game (11), 472.3 yards per game (21), 26.3 points allowed per game (55), 415.7 yards allowed per game (72)

LSU stats: 73.3 plays per game (50), 548.0 yards per game (3), 26.3 points allowed per game (56), 334.0 yards allowed per game (36)

Couple of really good offenses on display here. Utah State has a new head coach, well an old head coach in Gary Andersen who has returned, and he's got the offense cooking at a high speed. Having Jordan Love at quarterback helps, to be sure. Of course, the Aggies can't hold a candle to what LSU has been doing offensively, as they dropped 45 points on Texas. It's amusing to me that these teams have allowed the same number of points per game, but LSU has allowed fewer yards, and they've done it against tougher competition.

The last time Ja'Marr Chase ($7,000 DK, $9,900 FD) took the field, he had 10 catches for 229 yards and four touchdowns against Vanderbilt. He could be a bigger target than usual, as well, as both Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Terrace Marshall Jr. (leg) are both banged up. In other matchups, I'd be interested in Utah State players, but they are on the road against an SEC defense. I just can't trust Utah State in this one. However, I will recommend potentially taking a shot on LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,100 DK, $9,000 FD). He's scored a touchdown in every game this season, and he's averaged 5.6 yards per carry as LSU's lead back.

Prediction: Jordan Love gives LSU a mild scare, or at least shows an SEC offense that he has some talent, but the Tigers' offense keeps on trucking behind Joe Murrow. LSU 42, Utah State 20

Iowa  (+5) at Michigan, 12:00 PM ET

Iowa stats: 75.2 plays per game (33), 465.0 yards per game (23), 8.5 points allowed per game (4), 251.0 yards allowed per game (3)

Michigan stats: 73.0 plays per game (56), 392.0 yards per game (72), 19.2 points allowed per game (24), 296.2 yards allowed per game (14)

Are the Hawkeyes…really good? Their defensive numbers are stellar, but imagining a Kirk Ferentz offense ranking in the top 25 in yards per game? However, we need a grain of salt here. Other than a game against Iowa State, who doesn't look that good this year, it's been a really easy schedule for Iowa. It's also a little surprising to see the Wolverines with defensive numbers this good, given that Wisconsin trashed them. Shutting out Rutgers works wonders.

Having seen a lot of Michigan's offense in action between Shea Patterson fumbles, I wouldn't trust them against a defense ranked this high, even if I feel like the Hawkeyes' numbers are a little puffed up. I'm actually only going to recommend one player from this game, which I expect to be low scoring and defensively minded in the Big House. Remembering Jonathan Taylor tearing through the Wolverines, I like Mekhi Sargent ($6,100 DK, $7,900 FD). Now, Sargent isn't Taylor, but he has averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and he's added 102 yards through the air.

Prediction: Michigan doesn't lose fumbles left and right like against Wisconsin, and the defense actually looks good. However, Iowa picks up a win in a defensive battle. Iowa 20, Michigan 13

Purdue (+27.5) at Penn State, 12:00 PM ET

Purdue stats: 73.0 plays per game (59), 420.0 yards per game (52), 32.5 points allowed per game (87), 451.0 yards allowed per game (94)

Penn State stats: 64.7 plays per game (109), 456.0 yards per game (27), 7.7 points allowed per game (3), 317.7 yards allowed per game (22)

Remember, these rankings don't include games against FCS team, so Penn State's numbers don't include their 79-7 thrashing of the Idaho Vandals. It does include the 59-0 stomping of early-season dynamo Maryland. Purdue's defense has been even worse than these numbers indicate. Here are the four teams they've played, three of which were loses: Nevada, Vanderbilt, TCU, and Minnesota.

I won't be recommending any Boilermakers, especially with Rondale Moore banged up. Also, I expect the Nittany Lions to obliterate the opposition. Sean Clifford ($7,100 DK, $10,200 FD) is probably the quarterback I want the most. He's definitely the most-talented quarterback Purdue has had to face so far. In addition to throwing for 1,179 yards, he's rushed for 167 yards as well. I also like KJ Hamler ($6,000 DK, $9,000 FD), Penn State's big-play receiver. He may only have 16 receptions, but he's turned them into 353 yards and three touchdowns. It's not hard to envision him getting behind the Purdue secondary.

Prediction: Penn State's offense smashes Purdue, but since it has really spread the ball around, you might get a lot of players putting up good, but not great, numbers. A lot of solid doubles, maybe one or two home runs. Penn State 51, Purdue 21

Auburn (-3) at Florida, 3:30 PM ET

Auburn stats: 74.2 plays per game (42), 455.2 yards per game (28), 17.2 points allowed per game (18), 320.2 yards allowed per game (26)

Florida stats: 61.7 plays per game (125), 395.0 yards per game (69), 14.7 points allowed per game (11), 318.0 yards allowed per game (23)

Fantasy players, you may want to just move on. Florida has one of the slowest offenses in the FBS, and having Kyle Trask, a backup, under center isn't going to speed them up. Auburn runs more plays, but they are a run-heavy offense with a freshman quarterback. That usually takes up chunks of clock too. Also, with these two defense, I could imagine a lot of punts. This could be a fast game where neither offense gets over 350 total yards.

There is one silver lining here, though, and that's Auburn's stud sophomore running back JaTarvious Whitlow ($6,700 DK, $8,600 FD). He's rushed for 463 yards and seven touchdowns through five games, including games against Oregon and Texas A&M. That's about it, though. Bo Nix has been iffy in his freshman year, and the Florida offense is a big snooze.

Prediction: Hey, this game could be over in under three hours! Also, the Tigers completely shut the Gators down. Auburn 23, Florida 10

Baylor (+2) at Kansas State, 3:30 PM ET

Baylor stats: 69.7 plays per game (84), 461.3 yards per game (24), 16.0 points allowed per game (15), 304.3 yards allowed per game (17)

Kansas State stats: 63.0 plays per game (121), 344.7 yards per game (99), 16.7 points allowed per game (17), 339.3 yards allowed per game (37)

Baylor has had one of the easiest starts to the season of any team. They've played Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Rice, and a home game against Iowa State. As such, I don't know what to feel about them yet. I do know that Kansas State's offense has not impressed, and that slow pace doesn't bode well. When was the last time the Wildcats had a dynamic offense? When Darren Sproles was there? Also, they were just held to 13 points by Oklahoma State. I believe in their defense, but I don't expect anything from Kansas State's offense.

Because I expect a low-scoring affair, and because I still don't know what to believe about Baylor, my recommendation is going to be a bit of a flyer with a lot of upside. Consider Baylor receiver Tyquan Thornton ($5,200 DK, $7,600 FD). He just came off a game where he had 11 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown. Thornton was barely involved in the offense in the first two games, but those were both blowouts. I feel like he may be a bigger piece of the puzzle in this matchup, so he could be a nice cheap option so you can spend your money elsewhere.

Prediction: Matt Rhule just got an extension, but he won't help lead Baylor to a road win against its toughest opponent yet. Kansas State 23, Baylor 21

Texas (-11.5) at West Virginia, 3:30 PM ET

Texas stats: 76.5 plays per game (29), 497.8 yards per game (12), 25.5 points allowed per game (49), 436.5 yards allowed per game (84)

West Virginia stats: 73.0 plays per game (57), 336.7 yards per game (102), 29.7 points allowed per game (70), 389.3 yards allowed per game (54)

Oof. Those offensive numbers for the Mountaineers. The loss of Dana Holgerson, and also Will Grier, is being felt. This is with a game against Kansas in the mix too. West Virginia only scored 20 points against James Madison! Just steer clear of this offense. On the other hand, Texas has put up some great numbers, and it is coming off a bye as well. Plenty of time to prep for this matchup for Tom Herman and crew.

I've got a couple Texas receivers to offer up to you! The big name is Devin Duvernay ($7,500 DK, $9,500 FD), who already has a whopping 39 catches on the year. However, he's one of the three Longhorns with four receiving touchdowns. The guy who has made the biggest splash on that trio is Brennan Eagles ($6,400 DK, $8,100 FD). He only has 10 catches, but they've gone for 276 yards and four scores. Eagles is like bizarro Duvernay, but both guys have potential value.

Prediction: You know that Price is Right game where the yodeler falls off the mountain? West Virginia ends up feeling like that dude after this one. Texas 38, West Virginia 10

Illinois (+14) at Minnesota, 3:30 PM ET

Illinois stats: 72.2 plays per game (63), 381.0 yards per game (75), 25.5 points allowed per game (50), 411.8 yards allowed per game (69)

Minnesota stats: 74.3 plays per game (41), 416.7 yards per game (55), 32.7 points allowed per game (88), 319.0 yards allowed per game (25)

You rarely see a team with such a big disparity in their rankings between points allowed and yards allowed. In this case, you can blame the fact Minnesota played a double overtime game with Fresno State. That'll help rack up the points on you. Illinois' defensive numbers aren't bad on the whole, but they are mostly based on their its opener against Akron. The Fighting Illini gave up 34 points to Eastern Michigan and, even worse in a way, 23 points to Connecticut.

Reggie Corbin ($5,800 DK) has put up some good numbers this year, even though he missed the Connecticut game. He's scored a touchdown in every game he's played, and he's been over 100 yards in his last two contests. Meanwhile, over in the  Land of 10,000 Lakes, Rashod Bateman ($6,400 DK) is one of the more underrated receivers in college football. As a freshman last year he had 51 catches for 701 yards and six touchdowns. This year, he already has 466 yards and four scores.

Prediction: Did you know the Golden Gophers are undefeated? P.J. Fleck and company keep rowing that boat behind a surprisingly good passing game. Minnesota 34, Illinois 20

Arizona (+3.5) at Colorado, 4:30 PM ET

Arizona stats: 78.3 plays per game (21), 496.3 yards per game (14), 25.3 points allowed per game (48), 485.0 yards allowed per game (115)

Colorado stats: 72.0 plays per game (64), 434.8 yards per game (38), 30.8 points allowed per game (79), 467.8 yards allowed per game (104)

This could be the polar opposite of that Auburn-Florida game. I expect a ton of yards and points, but there are a few caveats. Three of the top offensive weapons for this game are all questionable. For Arizona, quarterback Khalil Tate ($8,100) and lead running back J.J. Taylor ($5,600)both missed last week's game against UCLA. Meanwhile, Laviska Shenault ($7,000) left Colorado's previous outing with an injury, though he's had a bye week to heal up. Given how bad these defenses have been, though, there's a chance that some backups could step up, and you could reap all the benefits, fantasy speaking.

Take, for example, Arizona running back Gary Brightwell ($5,100 DK). He's averaged 7.8 yards per carry and has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games. If Taylor can't play, or isn't full strength, he could be in for a nice day. Meanwhile, it's actually Tony Brown ($5,700) who leads the Buffaloes in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He had nine catches for 150 yards and three touchdowns in his last game. Even if Shenault plays, there's plenty of offense to go around.

Prediction: If both teams are full strength offensively, this is a game to target for your DFS lineup. Keep an eye on the statuses of Tate, Taylor, and Shenault. Also, Colorado wins. Colorado 45, Arizona 38

Georgia (-24.5) at Tennessee, 7:00 PM ET

Georgia stats: 62.0 plays per game (124), 492.0 yards per game (16), 7.7 points allowed per game (2), 255.3 yards allowed per game (6)

Tennessee stats: 70.7 plays per game (76), 353.7 yards per game (95), 33.7 points allowed per game (94), 377.3 yards allowed per game (48)

Georgia's offense hasn't been running it up and down the field, but they are still scoring plenty and racking up the yards. That's a mix of big plays and also running a more traditional "pro style" offense, though that term is increasingly passé with guys like Kliff Kingsbury in the NFL. I feel bad for teams stuck playing the Bulldogs. Georgia is taking the air out of the ball, churning up the field, and then on defense barely allowing their opponents to have the ball. I'm talking a lot about the Bulldogs because talking about the Volunteers is sad. They haven't even decided on their starting quarterback for this game. Spoiler alert: It won't matter who it is.

The thing about Georgia, though, is that it doesn't have a DFS-friendly offense. No receiver has more than 10 catches or 179 receiving yards. Jake Fromm has pro potential, but he's only thrown for 788 yards through four games. I guess the one guy I can recommend is D'Andre Swift (9,600 FD). He's averaged 7.9 yards per carry, and he's totaled four touchdowns. However, if you can skip this game when setting your lineup, I would.

Prediction: Georgia crushes Tennessee, but it does it mostly with its defense. Georgia 28, Tennessee 7

Michigan State (+20.5) at Ohio State, 7:00 PM ET

Michigan State stats: 72.4 plays per game (61), 414.8 yards per game (56), 15.0 points allowed per game (13), 254.4 yards allowed per game (4)

Ohio State stats: 74.6 plays per game (34), 536.2 yards per game (5), 8.6 points allowed per game (5), 222.4 yards allowed per game (2)

You look at these defensive numbers and you might expect a low scoring game. Then, you look at Ohio State's offensive stats. Honestly, outside of a dog of a game against Arizona State, Sparty has looked good offensively too, but not near the level of the Buckeyes. The fewest points Ohio State has scored in a game is 42. Yes, this is its biggest defensive challenge so far, but until proven otherwise I trust Ryan Day's crew to keep it up.

I wish this was a week where I could play football hipster and say something like, "Actually, the Spartans have some underrated offensive talents like Darrell Stewart and Elijah Collins." This is not the week for that. I will recommend a couple Buckeyes, because this offense has been truly hot, but maybe curb your enthusiasm just a smidge. Still, it's hard not to be head over heels with Justin Fields ($10,400 FD). He can attack the Spartans through the air and on the ground, throwing for 16 touchdowns while rushing for seven. Ohio State has three receivers that have put up relatively similar numbers, so I will recommend the cheapest of the bunch, Binjimen Victor ($7,500 FD). He also happens to lead the Buckeyes in receiving yards.

Prediction: History is made, as the Buckeyes are held under 42 points, but they still win easily, if not in the rout you might expect based on the start to their season. Ohio State 35, Michigan State 20

California (+17.5) at Oregon, 8:00 PM ET

California stats: 68.5 plays per game (93), 314.8 yards per game (109), 20.0 points allowed per game (26), 391.8 yards allowed per game (55)

Oregon stats: 68.7 plays per game (89), 425.0 yards per game (44), 13.0 points allowed per game (7), 269.7 yards allowed per game (11)

This is a case of the clearly resistible force meeting an immovable object. Oregon has a tough defense, while Cal has a bad offense. To make matters worse, the Golden Bears just lost their starting quarterback Chase Garbers. Oregon's offense hasn't really gotten rolling, and it doesn't push the ball like it did in the days of Chip Kelly and Mark Helfrich, but it clearly has more talent. Then again, Cal's defense has looked strong in its own right. We think of the Pac-12 as a high-flying conference. This is a matchup that flies in the face of that notion.

Cal has been worse against the run than the pass, so I want to recommend an Oregon running back. CJ Verdell ($8,200 FD) hasn't looked like the guy who ran for over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, but the Ducks basically rested him against Montana, which has skewed his numbers to look a little less impressive. I don't expect him to rest in this one. In the passing game, Johnny Johnson III ($7,800 FD) leads the way with 22 catches, and his 264 yards is all of one yard behind team leader Jacob Breeland.

Prediction: The Ducks, a team we got so used to seeing win on the strength of their offense, relies on their D, and the fact the Golden Bears are missing their starting quarterback, shut down Cal. Oregon 27, California 13