DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 11

Welcome to Alabama-LSU week! Sure, there are other games, but we all know what the highlight of the week is. Heck, it's the highlight of the college football season in the minds of many. Don't let yourself get tunnel vision, though. There are a lot of other games on the college football DFS slate. Those are the matchups that will likely make or break your lineup this week. I've highlighted 12 games, using DraftKings prices (FanDuel tends to post its Saturday contests late, but the recommendations can help there as well) to find some of the intriguing options available. All the numbers in parentheses in the stats sections are FBS rankings. Let's get to all those games that don't involve the Tide and the Tigers (and also that game too, of course)!

Cheat Sheet

Baylor (-2) at TCU O/U 51 12:00 PM ET

Baylor stats: 68.13 plays per game (71), 474.9 yards per game (16), 18.7 points allowed per game (15), 350.3 yards allowed per game (31)

TCU stats: 76.63 plays per game (10), 435.7 yards per game (35), 28.9 points allowed per game (69), 343.6 yards allowed per game (28)

I'm feeling a little skeptical about Baylor's offense after it scored only 17 points against West Virginia last week. However, the overall yards per game is still impressive, and so are the defensive numbers. The Bears will be tested by TCU's offense, which has been running a lot of plays. The Horned Frogs' freshman quarterback Max Duggan ($6,400) has given their offense a little boost, and he has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last three games.

I don't think I want to recommend Duggan against the Bears' defense, though, especially since he did just throw three picks in his last start. I'm going with Baylor's top weapon in receiver Denzel Mims ($7,000). He has 618 yards and six touchdowns on the year.

Prediction: Baylor's offense picks up after that head scratcher against West Virginia, and it gets the road win over TCU. Baylor 28, TCU 21

Florida State (+1.5) at Boston College O/U 62, 12:00 PM ET

Florida State stats: 73.3 plays per game (18), 393.2 yards per game (71), 28.8 points allowed per game (68), 434.1 yards allowed per game (90)

Boston College stats: 75.67 plays per game (16), 475.8 yards per game (15), 33.8 points allowed per game (100), 497.6 yards allowed per game (128)

The big news here, of course, is that Florida State has fired head coach Willie Taggart. What will that mean for their offense? Well, it should be just fine in this game. Boston College plays some fun games. They run a ton of plays, rack up a bunch of yards on the ground, and give up a bunch of points and yards. This should be a barn burner, and if you are playing DFS, this is the kind of game that's worth your attention.

AJ Dillon ($8,700) is the most expensive running back available on DraftKings. You'll have to pinch some pennies elsewhere to fit him in your lineup. I say go for it. He is the Boston College offense. In two of his last three games he's rushed for over 200 yards and three touchdowns. A place where you might be able to save some cash is with Florida State quarterback Alex Hornibrook ($6,200). This is about a good a matchup as the former Wisconsin quarterback is going to get. If he still has the starting gig over James Blackman ($5,800), he should be able to pad his stats a bit.

Prediction: Both teams might score 40 in this one. Dillon will run all over the Seminoles, and the turmoil on the Florida State coaching staff gives Boston College the opening needed for a win. Boston College 45, Florida State 35

Texas Tech (-1.5) at West Virginia  O/U 60, 12:00 PM ET

Texas Tech stats: 80.63 plays per game (7), 446.9 yards per game (29), 32.1 points allowed per game (90), 485.9 yards allowed per game (122)

West Virginia stats: 66.13 plays per game (96), 303.4 yards per game (104), 34.0 points allowed per game (102), 426.9 yards allowed per game (81)

Give the Mountaineers credit for consistency, as they've scored 14 points in each of their last three games. Both of these teams are struggling. Texas Tech has lost four of its last five games. West Virginia has lost four straight. The difference is that the Red Raiders have been playing in some shootouts. Getting to face West Virginia's poor offense may be just what Tech needs to right the ship. The Raiders should definitely be controlling the ball here.

I'm offering up two Red Raiders for you. Naturally, their top receiver T.J. Vasher ($6,200) is a safe bet. He has 37 catches for 479 yards and six touchdowns. However, believe it or not, there is actually a Texas Tech running back worth sticking in your lineup right now! I'm talking about SaRodorick Thompson ($5,700). He's got eight touchdowns on the season, but five of those have come in their last three outings.

Prediction: West Virginia will score more than 14 points, but not as many as Texas Tech scores. Texas Tech 49, West Virginia 21

Penn State (-6.5) at Minnesota O/U 47.5 12:00 PM ET

Penn State stats: 68.25 plays per game (100), 388.9 yards per game (76), 10.0 points allowed per game (2), 299.9 yards allowed per game (11)

Minnesota stats: 68.75 plays per game (56), 446.9 yards per game (30), 19.9 points allowed per game (18), 279.1 yards allowed per game (9)

If not for Alabama versus LSU, this would be the matchup of the week. It's the fifth-ranked Nittany Lions against the 13th-ranked Golden Gophers. I'm expecting a defensive battle here. Just look at those offensive numbers. Honestly, I was surprised to see the Nittany Lions ranked so low in yards per game. They used to be higher ranked, but now they've gone through a gauntlet of Iowa, Michigan, and Michigan State. That's dropped those numbers a bit.

I'd largely steer clear of this game, but there is one guy I will recommend. That's Minnesota receiver Rashod Bateman ($5,800). Penn State's impressive defensive numbers are bolstered by a great run defense. Against the pass, its allowed 211.6 passing yards per game. This may not be as tough of a matchup for Bateman as you're thinking, and the big-play receiver has 644 yards and six touchdowns.

Prediction: It's hard for me to envision Minnesota winning this. That may just be bias, as Penn State has a greater track record of success. It should be close, but I think the Nittany Lions are going to eke it out. Penn State 21, Minnesota 17

LSU (+6.5) at Alabama  O/U 65.0, 3:30 PM ET

LSU stats: 71.0 plays per game (44), 525.3 yards per game (4), 20.9 points allowed per game (23), 322.0 yards allowed per game (19)

Alabama stats: 65.63 plays per game (105), 506.9 yards per game (8), 15.2 points allowed per game (9), 307.9 yards allowed per game (15)

This is a great matchup year-in, year-out, but this year sets up to be a truly special one. It's the two top-ranked teams in the nation. They have elite numbers across the board. Both teams have excellent offenses this year, which isn't always the case, especially with LSU. However, there is also one big question mark here. Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000) is a game-time decision. If he doesn't play, it completely changes Alabama's offense. Honestly, with Tua's health a question mark, I can't really recommend an Alabama player. Mac Jones ($5,700) just isn't the same kind of quarterback.

You might think I'm about to recommend one of LSU's elite receivers. Ah, but I have a twist for you. The Tide have only allowed 180.1 yards per game through the air, but 127.4 yards on the ground. That's right, I'm recommending Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,000). He rushed for over 130 yards against Florida and Auburn. He can do it against Alabama potentially as well.

Quarterback Joe Burrow checks in with his lowest salary since the season-opener at $8,100, but this is a road game in Tuscaloosa against arguably the toughest pass defense he'll face all season. This likely makes him more of a tournament option than the cash game lock we've grown accustomed to him being throughout the course of the season.

Prediction: If I knew Tagovailoa was at full strength, I would pick the Tide, and also probably would be recommending an Alabama player. Instead, I'm going to hedge my bets and predict an LSU win. LSU 24, Alabama 21

USC (+1) at Arizona State O/U 57.0, 3:30 PM ET

USC stats: 69.44 plays per game (61), 432.7 yards per game (39), 28.3 points allowed per game (63), 426.8 yards allowed per game (80)

Arizona State stats: 62.88 plays per game (123), 362.9 yards per game (92), 23.1 points allowed per game (36), 365.3 yards allowed per game (39)

The USC offense has been what was expected this year, but injuries to quarterbacks can explain that. True freshman Kedon Slovis ($6,300) does his best, but he only has been over 300 yards passing once in his last three games, and that was against Colorado. Arizona State has a much tougher defense. Of course, the Sun Devils also have a poor offense.

Here's something that does get me hyped about Arizona State's offense, though. The Trojans have allowed 184.0 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Eno Benjamin ($6,800) isn't performing like he did last season, but he still has 679 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, and he's gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games. I also want to recommend a USC receiver. Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,400) and Tyler Vaughns ($5,300) are having good years, but Vaughns is clearly notably cheaper. I don't think Pittman Jr. is so much better than Vaughns as to justify paying that price in this matchup. Go with Vaughns and save a little cash.

Prediction: Benjamin runs all over the Trojans, and Slovis has issues with turnovers. He did throw three picks last week, after all. This gives Arizona State the win. Arizona State 28, USC 23

Wake Forest (-2) at Virginia Tech O/U 63.0, 3:30 PM ET

Wake Forest stats: 84.75 plays per game (1), 496.9 yards per game (10), 27.1 points allowed per game (55), 431.0 plays allowed per game (87)

Virginia Tech stats: 69.8 plays per game (51), 361.8 yards per game (93), 32.3 points allowed per game (91), 447.0 yards allowed per game (97)

Behold, the majesty of the Wake Forest offense. They are crushing it, even when they lose, like when they lost 62-59 to Louisville. That was a fun one. The Demon Deacons run more plays than anybody, so you know the opportunities are going to be there. Then, you take a look at the Hokies' defensive numbers, and if you're like me you're getting excited to get some Wake Forest players in your lineup.

Jamie Newman ($8,400) is the third-most-expensive quarterback on DraftKings, but I'm fine with that. He's the man at the hub of this high-powered offense, after all. Newman has thrown for 20 touchdowns while also rushing for five more, even though he's missed time with injury. He was clearly fine last week when he threw for three touchdowns and ran for two more against NC State. Sage Surratt ($7,500) has a lot going for him, but I'm going to recommend Scotty Washington ($6,300). He doesn't get as many targets as Surratt, but Washington still has 607 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.

Prediction: Wake Forest's passing game is in for a huge day. I think Surratt and Washington will both go over 100 yards, and that also bodes well for Newman. Naturally, I'm taking the Demon Deacons to win. Wake Forest 38, Virginia Tech 24

Kansas State (+6.5) at Texas O/U 58.5, 3:30 PM ET

Kansas State stats: 68.0 plays per game (97), 365.1 yards per game (90), 21.3 points allowed per game (26), 364.0 yards allowed per game (38)

Texas stats: 77.38 plays per game (6), 477.6 yards per game (14), 31.5 points allowed per game (84), 465.5 yards allowed per game (106)

It's a little puzzling that Kansas State is basically a touchdown underdog in this game. These two teams have played the exact same three teams, Oklahoma, TCU, and Kansas over their last three games. The Wildcats won all three of their games, while the Longhorns lost two of them, and only beat the Jayhawks by two points. I know Kansas State has a slow offense that hasn't put up much in the way of yards, but on the flip side of that coin is Texas' defense, which has been pretty lousy. Kansas scored 48 points on them!

Unfortunately, the Wildcats don't have a great passing game, but this is such a good matchup for throwing the ball. Texas has allowed over 305 yards per game through the air! Maybe this means a K-State receiver will be a nice cheap option. Dalton Schoen ($4,500) won't break the bank, and he leads the Wildcats in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kansas State is slightly worse against the run, so I'm going with Texas running back Keaontay Ingram ($5,900). He averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a freshman. He's averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a sophomore, and he also has four rushing scores on only 98 carries (he was banged up earlier this year).

Prediction: I feel very confident in Kansas State covering the spread. I am less certain it wins. The Oklahoma win was big, but Texas is at home, and it does have more talent. Texas 34, Kansas State 31

Missouri  (+17) at Georgia O/U 47.0, 7:00 PM ET

Missouri stats: 73.75 plays per game (17), 418.1 yards per game (49), 20.7 points allowed per game (21), 308.1 yards allowed per game (16)

Georgia stats: 67.50 plays per game (99), 449.6 yards per game (27), 10.6 points allowed per game (4), 266.3 yards allowed per game (6)

The Tigers are on a slide. They just lost to Kentucky, and the game before that they lost to Vanderbilt, which is an official sign of a team in turmoil. For a simple point of comparison, the Bulldogs shut out Kentucky 21-0, while Missouri lost to the Wildcats 29-7. That being said, both of these teams have really good defense numbers. I think this ends up being a defensive battle, and I expect Georgia to control the game by milking the clock on offense, which will hurt Missouri's chances of getting anything going.

Missouri has an elite pass defense. The Tigers only give up 144.5 yards per game through the air. Jake Fromm ($6,700) and company don't have the skills to mess with that. So, let's go with the clear top talent on Georgia's offense in running back D'Andre Swift ($7,500). He was kept in check against Florida, he only averaged 3.4 yards per carry, but the Bulldogs still gave him the ball 25 times. That speaks to the style of offense they want to run, especially in more defensively-minded battles.

Prediction: Missouri isn't going to get their offense moving against a team like Georgia on the road. I think it's more like the Tigers get shut out than it is they score 21 points. Georgia 27, Missouri 7

Utah State  (+5.5) at Fresno State O/U 58.5, 7:00 PM ET

Utah State stats: 72.13 plays per game (61), 378.9 yards per game (80), 29.1 points allowed per game (72), 469.9 yards allowed per game (110)

Fresno State stats: 65.88 plays per game (122), 407.4 yards per game (61), 33.6 points allowed per game (96), 433.1 yards allowed per game (89)

It's not all about big SEC matchups this week. How about two 4-4 teams from the Mountain West with questionable defenses? Fresno State has been playing some high-scoring games recently. That could make this the kind of under-the-radar game that could be your secret DFS weapon.

Siaosi Mariner ($6,500) started his college career with Utah, but the receiver made the move to Utah State to try and find greener pastures. He's emerged as the Aggies top target in the passing game with 527 yards and four touchdowns through the air. Jordan Love ($6,200) has surprisingly really struggled this season, but he still has the talent to take advantage of a favorable matchup. Meanwhile, Fresno's running back Ronnie Rivers ($6,400) has brought consistent impact. He's scored two rushing touchdowns in each of his last two games, and he's also a weapon in the passing game with 22 catches.

Prediction: This will be another eventful game for Fresno State. Both teams have implied totals north of 25, and I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams get into the 30s. There will be some big fantasy nights in this game. I think, in the end, Rivers and the Bulldogs get the win at home. Fresno State 42, Utah State 34

Notre Dame  (-8) at Duke  O/U 51.5, 7:30 PM ET

Notre Dame stats: 68.13 plays per game (82), 418.9 yards per game (48), 20.8 points allowed per game (22), 345.6 yards allowed per game (29)

Duke stats: 75.0 plays per game (33), 332.7 yards per game (111), 27.7 points allowed per game (57), 366.4 yards allowed per game (40)

Hey Blue Devils fans, at least college hoops season is kicking off. Duke runs plays like they want to play basketball on grass, but that yards per game numbers shows that they're throwing up a lot of bricks. Speaking of clunkers, the Fighting Irish have had a couple rough games recently. They got housed by Michigan at the Big House, and last week they barely eked by Virginia Tech at home. Can we just watch basketball instead?

Deon Jackson ($5,200) has only averaged 3.9 yards per carry for Duke, but they keep feeding him the ball as the top option on offense. Plus, he does have five touchdowns on the ground and two through the air. Notre Dame has given up 163.8 rushing yards per game, so I think Jackson could be a nice cheaper option. I feel like Ian Book ($8,000) is too pricey for his usual production, and Duke's defense isn't bad. If I'm taking a Fighting Irish player, I'm taking a flyer on tight end Cole Kmet ($5,600). He has a touchdown in four-straight games, and he's second on the team in catches and receiving yards. I'm not saying to move heaven and earth to get him in your lineup, but if you find yourself needing a cheaper option with upside at receiver, Kmet could be the guy.

Prediction: I think Notre Dame may struggle again a bit, but they aren't going to lose to this Duke team. Its defense is too good for that. Notre Dame 24, Duke 14

Iowa State (+13.5) at Oklahoma O/U 67.0 8:00 PM ET

Iowa State stats: 69.75 plays per game (86), 482.4 yards per game (13), 22.4 points allowed per game (31), 353.9 yards allowed per game (34)

Oklahoma stats: 62.75 plays per game (130), 579.4 yards per game (1), 24.3 points allowed per game (42), 338.7 yards allowed per game (27)

Yes, the Sooners rank last in plays per game and first in yards per game. In fact, they average 46.3 more yards per contest than any other team in the FBS. And yet, we're all thinking about their last game where they lost 48-41 to Kansas State. The Cyclones have a really strong offense themselves, clearly. So if Kansas State can drop 48 on Oklahoma, what could Iowa State do? I'm thinking we might be in for some fireworks here!

Of course, the DFS world knows how good Oklahoma's offense is, so it will cost you a pretty penny for somebody like Jalen Hurts ($9,000) or CeeDee Lamb ($7,100). Hurts will actually cost you $500 more than any other quarterback on DraftKings. He may win the Heisman, but you have to be willing to scrape the bottom of the proverbial barrel to fill out your lineup if you choose a guy like Hurts. That's reason a personal matter of taste. Lamb is also pricey, but he has 816 yards and 11 touchdowns, and I feel like he's easier to fit into a lineup. Brock Purdy ($7,900) is postring strong numbers in his own right, but the guy I really want to recommend is Iowa State running back Breece Hall ($6,800). The freshman has only been "the guy" for the Cyclones for the last few weeks, but he's absolutely crushed it since taking over. In his last three games, Hall has 63 carries for 391 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 120 receiving yards.

Prediction: Oklahoma is going to bounce back here and get the win, but Iowa State is going to make them work for it. Oklahoma 48, Iowa State 35