DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 10

This isn't the most-riveting weekend of college football on paper. Next week we have Alabama versus LSU, but we have to wait for that one. Even Clemson is playing Wofford. Go Terriers! However, you never know what magic might happen. Sometimes the Saturdays that don't look great end up being really exciting. Also, no matter the schedule we face, DFS always makes things a little more intriguing. I've looked at 12 games from Saturday's slate to try and help you make your decisions. The numbers you see in parentheses are the FBS rankings. All the prices come from DraftKings, since FanDuel puts their Saturday prices up pretty late, but you can use these recommendations for those when they come out. Let's do this thing!

Cheat Sheet

Boston College (+3) at Syracuse O/U 60.0, 12:00 PM ET

Boston College stats: 75.7 plays per game (16), 445.0 yards per game (29), 34.7 points allowed per game (106), 504.7 total yards allowed per game (127)

Syracuse stats: 76.5 plays per game (11), 358.9 yards per game (92), 30.7 points allowed per game (79), 468.7 yards allowed per game (112)

Well this should be a shootout. Although, the fact the Orange run so many plays but are so bad in terms of racking up yards is concerning. You shouldn't be able to run that many plays and rank 92nd in yards per game. Are they throwing the ball backwards? That being said, this is still a great matchup for Syracuse. Boston College has the worst defense by yards allowed per game of any team in a "Power Five Conference." I should also note that Boston College has lost quarterback Anthony Brown, which may hurt their offense a bit.

Only a bit, though, because Boston College is built around the running game and AJ Dillon ($7,800) anyway. He's gotten 197 carries and taken then for 1,044 yards and 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Syracuse receiver Trishton Jackson ($6,700) has enjoyed a breakout campaign. He's notched 43 catches for 632 yards and six touchdowns, even if Syracuse's offense hasn't been the same without Eric Dungey.

Prediction: Both teams are going to get it done offensively. Unfortunately, the Boston College offense doesn't provide much outside the running game, so there's not as much to go with there. Syracuse will take advantage of the Eagles' terrible defense to get the shootout win. Syracuse 52, Boston College 42

Nebraska (-3) at Purdue , O/U 55.0, 12:00 PM ET

Nebraska stats: 70.9 plays per game (48), 415.4 yards per game (50), 28.9 points allowed per game (65), 401.0 yards per game (64)

Purdue stats: 70.8 plays per game (49), 370.2 yards per game (86), 28.6 points allowed per game (64), 412.1 yards allowed per game (70)

Well, at least the defenses are pretty even. This could end up being a bland game. Purdue's starter when the season began Elijah Sindelar has been out for a while. Nebraska's starter Adrian Martinez didn't play last week and may not play this week. Purdue's best player, Rondale Moore, is also injured. All the top weapons are banged up. However, the game has to go on. Bring on the understudies!

I am steering clear of Purdue. Nebraska's weakness on defense is stopping the run, but the Boilermakers don't even average 70 yards per game on the ground. This isn't a matchup they can take advantage of. My only recommendation is Nebraska running back Dedrick Mills ($5,400). His biggest strength is finding the end zone, as he has seven touchdowns in eight games.

Prediction: Purdue's offense has gotten pretty ugly the last month or so. I think that continues, which will give Nebraska the win in a low-scoring affair. Nebraska 24, Purdue 10

Houston (+23) at Central Florida O/U 69.5, 12:00 PM ET

Houston stats: 66.0 plays per game (99), 414.0 yards per game (54), 33.1 points allowed per game (97), 479.9 yards allowed per game (119)

UCF stats: 78.0 plays per game (6), 542.4 yards per game (2), 24.7 points allowed per game (43), 374.0 yards allowed per game (45)

My eyes are bulging from seeing UCF's offense against Houston's defense. The Golden Knights are an elite offense, which Houston's defense has been, well, lousy. Just look at those numbers. Now look at the fact that UCF just dropped 63 on the road against Temple. I'm not saying you should try and just go with the entire UCF offense, but if there was ever a call for a stack…

Dillon Gabriel ($7,500) will cost a pretty penny, but he's entirely worth it. He hasn't even started the whole season but he's thrown for 2,218 yards and 20 touchdowns against five interceptions. The Golden Knights' top receiver is Gabriel Davis, but if you want a slightly cheaper option with some major upside, there's Tre Nixon ($6,100). He's clearly the second option behind Davis, but he's still managed to have 504 yards and five touchdowns. Something tells me there's enough to go around for UCF in this one.

Prediction: Houston may score some points themselves! They don't have a bad offense. I just can't see the Golden Knights scoring fewer than 49 points unless they are totally off their game. UCF 59, Houston 27

Virginia Tech (+17) at Notre Dame O/U 58.0, 2:30 PM ET

Virginia Tech stats: 70.7 plays per game (52), 386.2 yards per game (75), 34.6 points allowed per game (105), 446.6 yards allowed per game (97)

Notre Dame stats: 64.9 plays per game (113), 414.9 yards per game (53), 20.9 points allowed per game (20), 360.7 yards allowed per game (39)

The Fighting Irish still have good defensive numbers on the season, but the freshest memory we have is a rain-soaked one that features their defense getting trounced by Michigan. The Wolverines, who had not exactly been the Sooners on offense, rushed for 303 yards. Granted, Virginia Tech's offense has been even worse, and its bad defense should be a nice respite for Ian Book ($7,500) and company. Still, the arrow is pointing down on the Irish right now.

The top player on the Hokies' offense just so happens to be their lead running back Deshawn McClease ($5,000). He's rushed for a touchdown in three-straight games, and has been over 100 yards twice in that span. I may be talking trash about Notre Dame -- it's fun to do -- but I fully expect its offense to rebound here. It will likely be led by its passing game, so I'm looking at Chase Claypool ($6,400). The Hokies have allowed 250.9 passing yards per contest, so Claypool can take advantage of that.

Prediction: Notre Dame takes out its frustrations from last week's rough loss against Virginia Tech. Notre Dame 31, Virginia Tech 17

Georgia (-6.5) at Florida O/U 46.5, 3:30 PM ET

Georgia stats: 67.6 plays per game (86), 458.2 yards per game (21), 9.5 points allowed per game (2), 264.3 yards allowed per game (6)

Florida stats: 67.0 plays per game (89), 399.2 yards per game (66), 21.0 points allowed per game (23), 353.5 yards allowed per game (32)

This is the biggest game of the week. It's two top-10 teams squaring off. It's the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, which means this game is in Jacksonville, a neutral site. I'm excited for it. On the other hand, it's not likely to be all that conducive to DFS success. These are two great defenses. Florida's numbers are hindered a bit by a game against LSU, but I expect both defenses to be dominant here. Georgia has a lot of yards offensively, but they don't run a lot of plays, and Jake Fromm is not a guy who puts up gaudy numbers.

There's only one player I can really recommend, and it's a half-hearted recommendation. D'Andre Swift ($7,400) is the most-talented player in this game. The running back has racked up 752 yards and seven touchdowns in 110 carries. He has a tough matchup, but he might be able to handle it. Still, this is not a game to target for DFS. Watch it, have fun, but don't make yourself sweat out a defensive battle.

Prediction: Georgia is going to win, but it will be a wire-to-wire close game. Also, neither team gets over 30 points. Georgia 21, Florida 14

TCU (+3) at Oklahoma State O/U 64.5, 3:30 PM ET

TCU stats: 75.9 plays per game (14), 433.3 yards per game (38), 28.0 points allowed per game (61), 322.7 yards allowed per game (21)

Oklahoma State stats: 76.5 plays per game (10), 494.4 yards per game (11), 31.9 points allowed per game (88), 453.7 yards allowed per game (102)

Well we can expect a lot of plays in this game. How many points and yards are to be expected, though? While the Cowboys defense has been porous, I was admittedly a bit surprised to see TCU ranked 21st in yards allowed per game. Maybe it's because I've seen them give up 41 points to SMU, 49 points to Iowa State, and 27 to Texas. I feel like an offense like Oklahoma State's can take care of business against the Horned Frogs defense.

The tricky thing for the Cowboys is that it's a two-man offense. Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace are both fantastic, but they are also both expensive. I am going to recommend Hubbard ($8,300) if you want a rock for your lineup that you can build around with upside plays. Nobody is having a better season than him. He's rushed for 1,381 yards and 16 touchdowns. If you want a cheaper running back, there's TCU's Darius Anderson ($6,500). I expect him to bounce back from a bad game against Texas against a team that has given up 162.6 yards per game on the ground.

Max Duggan ($6,300) is up $500 from last week after racking up 31.1 fantasy points against Texas, marking his second consecutive game with at least 25 fantasy points. He still feels like a value, especially considering the matchup against a defense that ranks outside the top-50 in S&P+.

Prediction: Well a lot of points, for one. However, I think TCU, especially its offense, is on an upswing. The Horned Frogs are going to pull off the road upset. TCU 42, Oklahoma State 38

Utah (-3.5) at Washington O/U 47.0 4:00 PM ET

Utah stats: 66.4 plays per game (95), 439.4 yards per game (34), 11.7 points allowed per game (7), 247.7 yards allowed per game (4)

Washington stats: 66.4 plays per game (96), 404.0 yards per game (59), 22.6 points allowed per game (33), 391.3 yards allowed per game (57)

This is Georgia-Florida redux in terms of fantasy relevance. I don't want any part of this game. Utah's defense is amazing. They have the best run defense in the FBS. Washington's top receiver, Aaron Fuller, missed most of their game against Oregon. I know the Huskies scored 31 points against Oregon's defense, which is also great. I just don't want to bet on that again. I also don't want to bet on Utah's passing game at all. Tyler Huntley was limping around last week, and sat out the second half of the game against Cal. Also, the Utes don't have a receiver with more than 18 receptions.

I'm going to recommend Utah running back Zack Moss ($7,400) and then wash my hands of this game. He's rushed for 728 yards and 10 touchdowns on 110 carries through eight games, and he doesn't have to face his own defense, which helps.

Prediction: This is going to be a low-scoring game. Washington's offense is kept in check. Utah gets the win by grinding down the clock with Moss and keeping the Huskies from moving the ball. Utah 24, Washington 20

Oregon State (+5.5) at Arizona O/U 70.5, 4:30 PM ET

Oregon State stats: 70.0 plays per game (59), 388.0 yards per game (73), 35.7 points allowed per game (112), 445.5 yards allowed per game (95)

Arizona stats: 74.3 plays per game (22), 459.4 yards per game (20), 34.1 points allowed per game (101), 474.7 yards allowed per game (114)

If you are feeling frustrated by these defensive battles, I have a palette cleanser for you. Here's a game to get hyped for. I expect a ton of offense. The Wildcats just fired their defensive coordinator, but I don't think that's going to magically change things. We've got two teams that are allowing over 34 points per game. You know there will be offense in this one.

Arizona has allowed a staggering 310.4 passing yards per game. Oregon State allows a whopping 191.6 rushing yards per contest. From the Wildcats, I'll naturally recommend their lead running back J.J. Taylor ($5,700). He's missed time with injury, but he's averaged 5.7 yards per carry after averaging 5.6 last year in a breakout campaign. You can't go wrong with Beavers receiver Isaiah Hodgins ($7,700) , but I'm actually going to recommend quarterback Jake Luton ($6,400), because he seems like a potential steal. He's thrown for 16 touchdowns against one pick. Plus, in addition to having Hodgins, Trevon Bradford ($5,200) is returning from a foot injury that has kept him out all yet. That gives Luton another weapon that racked up 649 yards and six touchdowns in 2018.

Prediction: Oregon State is better than it was last season, but still not good enough to get a win on the road here. It should be a fun watch, though. Arizona 48, Oregon State 38

Mississippi (+18.5) at Auburn O/U 52.5, 7:00 PM ET

Mississippi stats: 74.8 plays per game (20), 430.7 yards per game (41), 26.7 points allowed per game (52), 414.1 yards allowed per game (74)

Auburn stats: 71.0 plays per game (47), 415.4 yards per game (51), 17.9 points allowed per game (14), 342.6 yards allowed per game (29)

Auburn just suffered a tough loss to LSU, and it will be looking to bounce back against Ole Miss. I took a couple things away from that game. One, Bo Nix ($6,700) makes the Auburn pass offense untouchable for DFS purposes. Two, Auburn has a great defense. They held LSU's high-flying offense to 23 points. John Rhys Plumlee ($6,300) has given the Rebels a boost on offense, mostly because he can run the ball. I just don't trust a QB who has completed 47.6 percent of his passes against this Auburn defense.

It was straight-up shocking when JaTarvious Whitlow ($6,100) suited up for the Tigers last week against LSU. The expectation was that he'd miss a full month. However, he only got three carries. Will he be in better shape for this matchup? Ole Miss has had a solid run defense, though. This is another game I would try and avoid, but Whitlow has talent at least.

Freshman D.J. Williams ($4,000) enjoyed a breakout against LSU with 130 yards and yet he sits at an affordable price. If Auburn isn't ready to give Whitlow the workhorse role just yet, Williams has shown that he's able to produce when given a chance.

Prediction: Auburn wins easily by the strength of its defense. Auburn 27, Mississippi 13

Virginia (+1.5) at North Carolina O/U 47.0, 7:30 PM ET

Virginia stats: 68.1 plays per game (81), 321.6 yards per game (113), 21.3 points allowed per game (25), 297.1 yards allowed per game (11)

North Carolina stats: 75.8 plays per game (16), 434.2 yards per game (37), 25.8 points allowed per game (49), 381.2 yards allowed per game (46)

The Tar Heels have played Clemson, but they also had a six-overtime game against Virginia Tech, so I think those two things even out in terms of their overall offensive numbers. They also run a ton of plays, but they will be doing it against a tough Virginia defense. On the other hand, the Cavaliers have a bland offense. They should be doing more with Bryce Perkins ($6,500) under center, frankly. However, he's struggling to the tune of nine passing touchdowns against eight interceptions. Even though Virginia clearly has the better defense, I feel like I have no choice but to recommend a North Carolina player in this matchup.

I'm going with receiver Dazz Newsome ($5,900). If you take out that Clemson game,  he's been having a great season. Newsome has scored at least one touchdown in their four most-recent games not involving the Tigers, and he has over 100 yards in his last two outings.

Prediction: Virginia is going to win because it does have a good defense, but not enough to completely shut down the North Carolina offense, especially in the passing game. Virginia 24, North Carolina 21

SMU (+6) at Memphis O/U 70.5, 7:30 PM ET

SMU stats: 83.8 plays per game (2), 504.1 yards per game (9), 27.8 point allowed per game (58), 387.5 yards allowed per game (53)

Memphis stats: 65.6 plays per game (106), 455.7 yards per game (24), 22.9 points allowed per game (34), 391.7 yards allowed per game (58)

This is one of only two games involving ranked teams this week. It's also the one that will actually have some offensive firepower. I'm a little surprised to see the Mustangs as six-point underdogs, but the Tigers only have one loss, and it was by two points on the road to Temple. Both of these teams have dynamic offenses, but they do it in different ways. SMU runs a ton of plays. Memphis makes big plays. Will that approach work against a team like the Mustangs, though?

Memphis has allowed more rushing yards than passing yards, so I've got to go with SMU's lead back Xavier Jones ($7,700). It's not like I had to have my arm twisted to make this decision, though. The dude has 14 touchdowns on the ground and two through the air. 

When SMU goes to the air, it's generally been a narrow tree with James Proche ($7,400) and Reggie Roberson ($6,200) both holding target shares north of 20 percent. Roberson is dealing with a foot issue suffered against Houston and his status will have to be monitored in the lead-up to kickoff. If he's out, Proche could take on an even bigger share of the targets than usual. Tight end Kylen Granson (4,000) saw a season-high in targets against Houston once Roberson went out, drawing seven looks from quarterback Shane Buechele ($7,200).

On the flip side, the Mustangs have a strong run defense but have given up over 270 yards per game passing. The Mustangs have yet to see a running back of Kenny Gainwell's caliber, though. Gainwell is the priciest runner on the night slate at $8,300, and rightfully so. He has rushed for 979 yards and 11 scores while adding another 440 yards as a pass-catcher.

Let me throw my hat in the ring of Memphis' quarterback Brady White ($7,300). The ball gets spread around in the Memphis passing game, but White has 2,161 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only four picks.

Prediction: I'm excited to watch this one. It's a bit of a hipster choice, but I watch a lot of college football and I think it's cool to get to watch SMU and Memphis in a big game. Maybe my judgment is clouded by wanting to see SMU go undefeated so bad, but I'm going with the Mustangs in a barnburner. SMU 35, Memphis 31

Oregon (-5.5) at USC O/U 62.5 8:00 PM ET

Oregon stats: 72.1 plays per game (34), 457.4 yards per game (23), 16.4 points allowed per game (11), 320.4 yards allowed per game (19)

USC stats: 67.9 plays per game (83), 44.2 yards per game (31), 24.9 points allowed per game (44), 429.5 yards allowed per game (84)

The Ducks have allowed 31 and 35 points in their last two games. Overall, their defensive numbers are still great, but it seems like maybe they've been solved a bit? The Trojans hired Graham Harrell to be offensive coordinator to try and get some of that Mike Leach Air Raid magic. Leach's Cougars just nearly pulled an upset over Oregon. Kedon Slovis ($6,600)seems like he's getting comfortable, although beating up on Arizona and Colorado isn't hard.

CJ Verdell ($6,100) just rushed for 257 yards and three touchdowns. He had 171 yards on 14 carries two games prior. He's got a ton of big-play potential, and I like to bet on that upside. However, I'm also going to do something I would not have done a few weeks ago. I'm recommending a player going up against Oregon's defense. Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,600) is just so good though. He's the primary weapon in an Air Raid passing game, which has helped him notch 50 catches for 755 yards and seven touchdowns.

Prediction: Oregon is going to win, and it will score a lot of points, but the Trojans get theirs on offense. Oregon 38, USC 28