DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 1 Matchups

Hello, and welcome to the initial DFS game preview article for college football! I'm excited to be taking on this project for this season to help you navigate the sometimes murky waters of daily college football, and I hope you are nearly as excited to read it. Because it would be a little weird if you were more excited than me.

Normally, I'd hop right into the nitty gritty, but since this is the debut article in this series, I need to lay out the groundwork a bit. If you've read our NFL game preview articles here at Rotowire, and if you aren't reevaluating your life choices, it will be somewhat similar. I will be digging into all the games being showcased on DraftKings and FanDuel in a given week. I'm focused on Saturday, so if you need Thursday help check out the other tools that Rotowire provides you for your college football needs.

For every game, I will be focused on what I like to call the three P's: Preamble, Points of Interest, and Prediction. The Preamble will be a brief overview of the game, taking about the season up to this point and some matchup matters. Then, in Points of Interest I will note some injuries, pertinent weather news, and maybe some must haves for your DFS lineups. Lastly, I will drop my prediction for the game. Got all that? Ready to go? Me too. Let's get to it!

Toledo (+11.5) at Kentucky, 58.5 o/u, 12:00 PM ET

Preamble

Last year was a magical campaign for the Wildcats. The team went 10-3, including a win over Penn State in the Citrus Bowl. Benny Snell led the way on offense, while Josh Allen terrorized opposing quarterbacks on the defense. The problem for Kentucky? Both Snell and Allen are gone, and there is nobody on this roster capable of provided the same punch those two did. Meanwhile, Toledo brings back Bryant Koback as their primary rusher after he racked up 14 touchdowns as a freshman. The SEC and MAC are still different beasts, but this may be a closer game than you would think on paper.

Points of Interest

Kentucky injuries: Isaiah Epps, WR (out, foot)

Toledo injuries: None

DFS must-haves: None

Prediction

Asim Rose, who is expected to replace Benny Snell as the primary back for the Wildcats, can't live up to his predecessor, but is enough of a facsimile to keep Kentucky's offense moving. Koback has a nice game and puts a scare into Kentucky fans, but in the end the SEC team prevails. Kentucky, 24-17

Mississippi State (-21) at Louisiana-Lafayette, o/u 58.5, 12:00 PM ET

Preamble

If you are wondering how the Ragin' Cajuns got a home game against an SEC team, this game is taking place at the Superdome in New Orleans. Hey, that'll take weather out of the equation, but it will also kill any real home-field advantage Louisiana could hope for. Of course, the Ragin' Cajuns are coached by a... well, let's just say he's a character... who tried to get his unpaid student athletes to donate to the school's booster club to create a "culture of gratitude," so pardon me if I'm not concerned about the plight of ULL.

The Cajuns ranked 105th in points allowed per game last year, and 98th in total yards allowed per game. Those aren't great numbers, and bear in mind they play the bulk of their schedule against Sun Belt squads. These two teams played early last year, and the Bulldogs won 56-10. I would expect something similar to happen this season.

Points of Interest

Louisiana injuries: Trey Ragas, RB (probably, knee), Elijah Mitchell (probable, Achilles)

Mississippi State injuries: None

DFS must-haves: Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State

Prediction:

Both of Louisiana's top running backs are injured, even if they are probable, which certainly won't help matters for their offense. The Bulldogs are breaking in a new quarterback in Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens. Since it's his first game, I don't trust him yet, but I do trust Hill to be able to run all over the Ragin' Cajuns for a big day. Mississippi State, 45-13

Ole Miss (+6) at Memphis, o/u 68, 12:00 PM ET

Preamble

Your eyes aren't deceiving you. Ole Miss is an underdog against the Tigers. Dig a little deeper, though, and it starts to make sense. The Rebs lost their final five games last year to finish 5-7. They have a new quarterback, but they also have two new, big-name coordinators. Rich Rodriguez is now running the offense, while Mike MacIntyre has taken over the defense. That's all well and good, but the proof, as ever, is in the pudding. As for Memphis, they may have lost Darrell Henderson after a tremendous year wherein he rushed for 1,909 yards and 22 touchdowns. However, they still have Patrick Taylor, who somehow rushed for 1,122 yards and 16 touchdowns as a backup. Imagine what he can do with the main job.

Points of Interest

Memphis injuries: None

Ole Miss injuries: None

DFS must-haves: Brady White, QB, Memphis

Prediction

Even if a lot of folks aren't up to date on the studs on Memphis' offense, the people running DFS sites are. You'll have to pay a pretty penny to get either Taylor or standout wide receiver Damonte Coxie. In his first year as a starter, White completed 62.8 percent of his passes en route to 26 touchdowns against nine interceptions. I don't think Mike MacIntyre has the magic necessary to turn an Ole Miss defense that ranked 116th in total yards allowed per game in one offseason. Memphis might break the scoreboard here. Memphis, 42-27

East Carolina (+16.5) at NC State, o/u 54.5, 12:00 PM ET

Preamble

The Pirates will be looking for vengeance in this game. Last time East Carolina took the field, they were losing to the Wolf Pack by a score of 58-3. That was enough to get Scottie Montgomery fired, to be replaced by Mike Houston, who made his name at James Madison. East Carolina allowed 38.2 points per game last year so, uh, I hope he knows how to turn around a defense fast. This should be an easier outing for the Pirates than 2018, though, because NC State has a different look. Not only is Ryan Finley gone, but the top running back and top two receivers from 2018 also have graduated. It's a whole new look on offense.

Points of Interest

NC State injuries: Damontay Rhem, RB (out, suspension), Stephen Louis, WR (questionable, ankle)

East Carolina injuries: None

DFS must-haves: None

Prediction: Normally, I'd be itching to take advantage of a matchup against a team like East Carolina. However, what do any of us know about NC State's offense? Matt McKay threw eight passes last year. Ricky Person rushed for 471 yards. I think this could be an ugly game. The one thing I'm fairly confident in is taking the under. NC State, 24-14

Indiana (-16) at Ball State, o/u 59, 12:00 PM ET

Preamble

If you aren't a Hoosier, this game might not be on your radar, but that could mean opportunity for your daily fantasy lineup. After all, Ball State allowed 246.0 rushing yards per contest last season. That would get me quite excited about Stevie Scott, but he missed time this spring with an undisclosed issue. He's expected to play Saturday, but that's still enough to make my enthusiasm dip a smidge. Indiana is desperate to make a bowl game after falling short by going 5-7 last year. Three of the Hoosiers' first four games are against Ball State, Eastern Illinois, and UConn. They better take care of business.

Points of Interest

Ball State injuries: None

Indiana injuries: Stevie Scott, RB (probable, undisclosed), Cole Gest, RB (questionable, knee), Nick Westbrook, WR (questionable, undisclosed), Whop Phylor, WR (questionable, ankle), Jacolby Hewitt, WR (out, knee)

DFS must-haves: None, but if you want a low-price flier, consider Scott's backup Ronnie Walker. Scott's health isn't 100-percent certain and this game could be a blowout. I could see Walker getting double-digit touches, and all it would take is one touchdown for him to pay off.

Prediction

Remember when Brady Hoke turned Ball State into a respectable team? Remember when people respected Brady Hoke? Maybe I'm just surrounded by too many bitter Michigan fans. Anyway, Indiana shouldn't mess this one up. I expect them to run all over the Cardinals, enough to maybe provide worthwhile numbers from not one, but two running backs. Indiana, 35-17

Florida Atlantic (+27.5) at Ohio State, o/u 63.5, 12:00 PM ET

Lane Kiffin! Hey everybody, Lane Kiffin is coaching in this game! Let's not pay attention to who is there for the Owls, though. Let's focus on the guys who are gone from the backfield. Devin Singletary has been a fantasy college football player's dream for years. Remember when he scored 33 total touchdowns in 2017? I certainly do, because I happen to cover Conference USA so I was up on him early. Singletary is gone now, though, and so is his backup Kerrith Whyte, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns as Singletary's backup in 2018.

Not that the Buckeyes aren't without changes. You may have heard that Urban Meyer has retired. We got a taste of Ohio State under Ryan Day last year, but now the job is his. Dwayne Haskins is also gone, having been drafted in the first round. Stepping into his spot under center? Justin Fields, who was once considered by many the top recruit in the country. So yeah, there's a lot going on for the Buckeyes. Sorry I spent so much time talking about former Owls running backs.

Points of Interest

Ohio State injuries: Austin Mack, WR (questionable, undisclosed), Jaylen Harris, WR (questionable, undisclosed)

Florida Atlantic injuries: John Mitchell, WR (questionable, shoulder), Tavaris Harrison, WR (questionable, undisclosed)

DFS must-haves: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

Prediction

With a new quarterback under center, the Buckeyes rely on Dobbins to pound the ball. While his numbers dropped last year after he rushed for over 1,400 yards as a freshman, he will find that old magic against the Owls. Meanwhile, B.J. Emmons, a former Alabama transfer, isn't able to make Florida Atlantic fans forget about Singletary just yet, especially since the Owls will probably have a shaky passing game this year. Ohio State, 34-13

Duke (+34.5) at Alabama, o/u 58, 3:30 PM ET

Preamble

And so Alabama's quest to win another national title begins. Poor Duke is lined up to be the sacrificial lamb in the season opener. The fact this game is on a neutral site in Atlanta won't help much. Call me crazy, but I think that Alabama will probably have more fans at the game. The Tide always reload, but they still have super stud quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, not to mention elite receivers in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. As for Duke, when the Giants took Daniel Jones in the NFL Draft his defenders said, "Sure his numbers weren't great, but his teammates were so bad!" Now Jones is gone. You do the math.

Points of Interest:

Alabama injuries: Jerome Ford, RB (questionable, knee), DeVonta Smith, WR (questionable, knee), Miller Forristall, TE (questionable, foot), Major Tennison, TE (questionable, leg)

Duke injuries: Mateo Durant, RB (questionable, shoulder), Marvin Hubbard III, RB (questionable, Achilles), Aaron Young, WR (probable, hamstring), Jake Bobo, WR (out, collarbone)

DFS must-haves: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Prediction

Alabama shows no mercy. A running back has a big game, but we are possibly surprised by who in classic Crimson Tide fashion. Backup quarterback Mac Jones makes an appearance for the Tide once the game gets out of hand. Quentin Harris, who threw for six touchdowns across two games in 2018, finds out that Alabama is a lot tougher of a matchup than Baylor and North Carolina Central. Alabama, 51-16

South Carolina (-8) at North Carolina, o/u 63, 3:30 PM ET

Preamble

Mack is back! After going 2-9, with one of those wins coming against Western Carolina, the Tar Heels have replaced Larry Fedora with Mack Brown. Brown previously coached North Carolina…from 1988 through 1997. This is his first gig since getting the boot by Texas in 2013. Mack is 67 now. Has the game passed him by? What does he have store for us in his return to coaching? The Gamecocks played a brutal schedule last year, which is what happens when you aren't one of the top teams in the SEC, so they have to take advantage of their easier matchups while they can. They still have Jake Bentley under center, giving the offense some stability. What will he do without Deebo Samuel as a safety valve, though?

Points of Interest

North Carolina injuries: Michael Carter, RB (questionable, undisclosed), Antoine Green, WR (questionable, leg)

South Carolina injuries: Tavien Feaster, RB (probable, teeth), Rico Dowdle, RB (probable, groin), Randrecous Davis, WR (questionable, undisclosed)

DFS must-haves: None

Prediction

The Tar Heels were lousy on offense and defense last year, and I don't expect Brown to change that overnight. He may not change that at all. The reason he lost his job at Texas is because he stopped recruiting on the level that the fans, and boosters, of that program expect. He's still using a bunch of talent from a team that won exactly one game against an FBS team in 2018. I'm not wild about South Carolina, but I like them enough to be able to win against their rivals from a neighbor state. South Carolina 23-14

Northwestern (+6.5) at Stanford, o/u 46, 4:00 PM ET

Preamble

This is a matchup involving two above-average defenses, so it makes sense the over/under is as low as it is. The Wildcats ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed per game last year, and to make matters worse for the Cardinal they no longer have Bryce Love. More pressingly, frankly, is the loss of J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Of course, Northwestern's offense was pretty lackluster as well. They ranked 100th in points per game. They are hoping Hunter Johnson, a transfer from Clemson, can take their offense to the next level. Which, I guess, would be "decent."

Points of Interest

Stanford injuries: None

Northwestern injuries: None

DFS must-haves: None

Prediction

This is a game fantasy players kind of gloss over, and with good reason. K.J. Costello is a really good quarterback, but Stanford doesn't have the kind of offense that is conducive to putting up huge numbers. If either team breaks 30 points I'll be surprised. Stanford, 24-17

Virginia Tech (+3.5) at Boston College, o/u 56, 4:00 PM ET

Preamble

Stepping into Frank Beamer's shoes would be hard for anybody, but the walls are closing in on Justin Fuente after a disappointing campaign in 2018. The Hokies had to scramble to schedule Marshall for a makeup game to get to 6-6 to keep their bowl streak alive. Of course, going 6-6 or 7-5 is basically the name of the game at Boston College. They don't excite people, but they do bring back quarterback Anthony Brown and running back AJ Dillon. The Hokies bring back most of their key offensive players, save for lead running back Steven Peoples. However, he wasn't so good that Virginia Tech can't manage without him.

Points of Interest

Boston College injuries: None

Virginia Tech injuries: Deshawn McClease, RB (questionable, undisclosed), Terius Wheatley, RB (questionable, shoulder), Dalton Keene, TE (questionable, knee)

DFS must-haves: None

Prediction

Dillon rushes for around 80 yards, and has the potential to break for over 100 yards and a touchdown. He's a fairly interesting DFS option. Virginia Tech's offense shows the same issues it had last season. Both of these teams are probably in need of an eight-win campaign. To make that happen, they probably need to win this game. Only one can do it, though. Sorry, Hokies fans. Boston College, 24-21