College Football Best Bets: Louisville vs. SMU
Quietly, the Cardinals and the Mustangs are two good teams about to have, hopefully, an exciting game. Both teams are 7-3, but while Louisville has fallen from the ACC title race, don't sleep on SMU. The Mustangs and 5-1 in conference play and legitimately could make it to the ACC title game. Only if SMU beats Louisville, though, so you know Louisville would love to score an upset. If you can't directly impact the ACC title game, indirectly impact it. Close matchups can make for tricky betting decisions, but let's get into it a bit deeper.
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Louisville vs. SMU Betting Odds
Spread: SMU -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 52.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Louisville +125 (BetMGM Sportsbook), SMU -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Well, looks like the feeling is that this one is a toss-up, given that the spread of record is the Mustangs -2.5. Given that they are at home, they are essentially falling just under the traditional three points for being at home found in spreads. Making this more or less a toss-up does make sense given these two teams, though.
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Louisville vs. SMU Betting Predictions
I can start here: SMU is 26th in SP+ and Louisville is 27th in SP+. That's right, these two teams abut one another. Although, I will also note that the team that is at home is the one that is ahead in SP+…slightly. On top of that, Louisville's star running back Isaac Brown hasn't played in its last two games, though oddly he was removed from the injury report before the Clemson game last week, but still didn't play. SMU's offensive weaponry, conversely, is locked and loaded.
The Mustangs are a couple of breaks away from being in the playoff conversation without needing to win the ACC. They blew a home game against Baylor early and lost by a field goal in double overtime, and they lost 13-12 at Wake Forest. Recently, they have beaten Clemson on the road and upset Miami at home. Of course, Louisville's losses have been by three points, three points, and one point, and that Clemson loss was brutal. Its last two losses have been without Brown as well, and he may return.
So yeah, no wonder this game is considered a toss-up. The Mustangs are at home, and Brown's health is questionable. In an even matchup, that'll work for me.
Louisville vs. SMU Best Bet: SMU -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Louisville vs. SMU Betting Predictions
Both of these teams have tough run defenses, and Louisville also has a tough pass defense. If the Cardinals win, it will be because they took advantage of SMU's questionable pass defense. The problem for Louisville is that Miller Moss has been bad, especially as of late. Over his last four games he's thrown for 738 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. It won't be easy for the Mustangs to win, but they are at home, and if they don't open the door for Moss' first good game since September, they can win a low-scoring affair.
SMU 23, Louisville 17
Louisville vs. SMU Best Bets for Saturday, November 22
Kevin Jennings, SMU – Under 270.5 passing yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Usually, but not inherently, Jennings gets over 270 passing yards. There are three ACC defenses holding opponents to under 190 passing yards per game. Against Miami, Jennings got to 365 yards (on 44 attempts). However, Wake Forest held him to 171 yards. It's a narrow margin, but Louisville is first in passing yards allowed per game in the ACC, so I will lean toward Jennings falling short of 270 yards in this matchup.
Chris Bell, Louisville – Over 70.5 receiving yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moss' play has also cut into Bell's numbers. After three 100-yard games in a row, Bell has only had over 70 receiving yards once in his last four games. That was in his last game, though. He also had eight catches against Virginia Tech, which only went for 56 yards but had he broken one of those off for a big gain he would have managed to get over 70 yards there. With the expectation that Louisville will struggle to run the ball against SMU, Bell should get plenty of targets, several receptions, and potentially clear 70 yards receiving. I think the odds are in his favor on that front.
