College Football Picks: CFB Bowl Season Week 1 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on December 15, 2022

College Capper: Bowl Season Best Bets

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Chris' Picks

Another 2-3 week for me in Championship Week, somewhat unsprising given the forced nature of that limited slate. We head into bowl season where it's so difficult to get a handle on who is and isn't playing regardless of how hard our staff tries. Making these picks a week in advance is a tough task, made only more challenging by my finite writing window due to some personal travel. I hope I'm just making unnecessary excuses due to dwindling confidence as the season has wound down. Every game has a winning side....lets find em!

UAB -11 vs. Miami (OH)

I'm not sure how the rest of this column will sort out, but in general, I'm willing to play against all MAC teams this bowl season. It's a conference where the weekly results followed minimal trends or patterns, just lots of .500 records with no rhyme or reason. UAB is playing for their interim coach that wasn't retained for the full-time job, and I think that provides ample motivation for a beatdown here. RB DeWayne McBride is by far the best player on the field, and the RedHawks run defense has allowed 659 yards over the last three games. They'll be happy to be out of Ohio and in the Carribaen, while UAB is on a business trip.

Cincinnati (+1) vs. Louisville

What a weird dynamic, with both teams losing coaches, but Louisville's former coach, Scott Satterfield, now going to Cincinnati. Perhaps that's a motivation for the Cardinals playing in this game, but one it won't be for is Malik Cunningham, who's off to the NFL. In a game where points are at a premium, losing the most dynamic player is a clear detriment. Cincinnati too has questions under center, but the deciding factor is both teams create plays behind the line defensively, but the Bearcats limit those negative plays offensively. If they can stay ahead of the sticks, they'll grind out a low-scoring win.

Oregon State (-10) vs. Florida

Perhaps this is a sucker play, but I feel confident in either an alt-line play at (-9.5) or taking it up until it gets to (-14). We know Anthony Richardson opted out for Florida, but there without some 20+ other players for this game as some major roster turnover is occuring. Oregon State's body of work is pretty impressive, and I'll argue they are equally as excited to face a big-named SEC opponent as they could be disapointed to be in a second-tier bowl against an unranked opponent. They don't get these opportunties often, and will seize the moment while Florida enjoys the bright lights of the Vegas strip and barely shows up.

Connecticut (+10.5) vs. Marshall

These are two teams I've played on and against multiple times this year with middling results, so tread lightly. It's also likely I'm seeking variety for the column and need an underdog, perhaps not even believing my angle. Marshall play elite defense, and RB Khalan Laborn gives them the best player on the fied. But we've got a low point total of 40.5, giving us an expected 25-15 type final score. This figures to be a slow, methodical game where I question Marshall getting to that number more than UConn needing two touchdowns to cover. Absolutely pay for the extra half of a point however.

San Jose State (-3.5) vs. Eastern Michigan

There's no mistaking this is a gross matchup, so maybe we just need some action to make it a tad better. SJST has a decent offensive pairing in QB Chevan Cordeiro and WR Elijah Cooks. Eastern Michigan is a run first offense with RB Samson Evans, which seemingly plays into the Spartans' defensive strength, as they allow just 3.27 ypc and 122.6 ypg, ranking 28th nationally. This spread seems to be trending upward, so lock in if you agree, or get after my new-found favorite alt lines, as the odds difference remains so minimal for casual bettors.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 38-37

CFB Betting Tools

GREG'S PICKS

After a rough week 13, I closed the regular season with another winning week. Was I extremely fortunate to get two of the three wins? Indeed, but the breaks go both ways throughout a season, so I'm not going to feel bad about how I got there. Speaking of which…

The two losses weren't at all similar as USC never stood a chance with a hobbled Caleb Williams and the Trojans were easily dismissed by the Utes. TCU on the other hand had a chance to cover in OT after a furious comeback, but the Horned Frogs stalled out in extra time.

One of the three wins was easy as Tulane played from ahead all day, but the other two wins came down to the wire. The first was the over in the USC-Utah game. Now, I'll say this, if Williams doesn't get hurt, this number likely hits with ease, but with a hobbled Williams, the Trojans struggled to contribute their expected number of points. Luckily, the Utes weren't about to let off the gas and a late TD put the score over the total. The final win was on Michigan, who covered through the front door I guess you would say? Whatever you call it, Purdue probably deserved to get the cover as it was inside the number nearly all game, but in the end the Wolverines came out on top.

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com. DraftKings has special offers for users in Maryland and Ohio, so if you're located in either state, you can sign up using the DraftKings Maryland Promo Code or DraftKings Ohio Promo Code.

Over (55.5) UTSA vs Troy

Bowl season is littered with a lot of mediocre teams, but that's not the case here as both teams enter with 11-2 records. In addition, both teams enter having won their past 10 games! While both teams have been successful this season, they haven't traveled the same road to get there. Troy relies more on its defense, while UTSA relies on its offense. So which style wins out? Considering the best player in the game, Frank Harris, will be under center for UTSA, I'm expecting a higher scoring game. UTSA allows over 26 ppg, and I don't see the Trojans slowing down Harris, so I think we're in a for a bit of a shootout here.

Under (40.5) Louisville vs Cincinnati

With injuries, players outing out to get ready for the draft, coaching changes, and the transfer portal, disruptions are always going to be a part of bowl season, but this game has been absolutely blown up by a combination of all the above. Let's start with the coaching change, which saw the coach for Louisville leave…for Cincinnati! That's just the appetizer though as we also lost both starting QBs and several skill position players as well. With all that carnage on offense, you can see why the under is the play, but factor in that both of these teams have strong defensive units, and you can see why the under is a great play. I should caution though that this number is extremely low, low enough that a couple quirky plays could send it over, but honestly, I'm expecting both of these teams to run the ball and speed up the clock.

Under (64.5) BYU vs SMU

Another case of two teams decimated by losses. In this case, the numbers aren't nearly as large, but each team is expected to be down one very pivotal player. In SMU's case, it's Rashee Rice, who is one of the top WRs in the country. BYU is likely to be without QB Jaren Hall. Under normal circumstances that might not be that bad, but the Cougars lost their backup QB to the transfer portal. Now, most college teams can reload and I'm sure SMU will find guys to throw to, but a QB change is a big deal and we aren't talking about a small total here, so I'm focusing on the under here. Why not just take SMU in that case then? Well, the Mustangs allow over 200 per game on the ground and BYU runs for about 173 per game, so I could see the Cougars just grinding it out all game and trying to keep the Mustangs offense off the field.

Fresno State (-3.5) vs Washington State

Continuing the trend of teams decimated by the loss of important players, in this game however, it's very one-sided as Washington State has lost a lot of players since the end of the regular season while Fresno State comes in fairly unscathed. Washington State lost three WRs and an OT on the offense and three LBs and one CB. This isn't going to help a defense that surrendered 266 ypg through the air this season. On the other side we have Jake Haener, who just happens to be one of the best QBs in the country. To give you can idea of how much of an impact these losses for WSU might have, the lined has moved eight points in favor of Fresno State!

Air Force (+5.5) vs Baylor

To mix things up, I thought I would include a play on a game that isn't really affected much by bowl season migration. Both teams come in relatively clean so we should get a true picture of what these teams are. The problem for Baylor here is the ground game and the potential for it to stall against Air Force. Air Force allows under 100 yards per game on the ground and if the Bears can't get going on the ground, it's going to be a long day. The Falcons need to move the ball on the ground to be effective as well, but they should have an easier time against a Baylor defense that was just gashed by Texas a couple weeks ago. This should be a tight game, which is why I like the points in this spot.

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 36-37-0