College Football DFS: Thursday Showdown Slate

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Published on September 10, 2020

We've got a one-game showdown contest to cover for Thursday's college football action, as UAB tackles Miami in the premiere game of the ACC Conference season. For those of you unfamiliar with how a showdown contest works, I've written an article about how to approach these unique contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Although the column focuses on NBA showdowns, the basic principles and strategies are the same. In FanDuel's case, the primary difference is that the MVP (Captain) 1.5x slot is identical to the DraftKings model for college football. The only exception is that FanDuel charges the same for their MVP slot, and DraftKings requires you to pay 1.5x the original salary for their Captain slot.

DFS Tools

SLATE OVERVIEW

UAB @ Miami (FL) (-14.5) O/U: 55

The Hurricanes lost some talent to graduation, but have done a decent job rebuilding their team offensively. The Blazers are not a team to sleep on, and after cruising to a convincing win over Central Arkansas last week, they will likely make this game much closer than it currently looks on paper. The Canes brought in Rhett Lashlee from SMU to revamp their offense as the new OC, so we should see a bit more passing from what is usually a ground-focused scheme. Miami also scored a coup with a new starting QB, but we'll talk

DFS Tools

SLATE OVERVIEW

UAB @ Miami (FL) (-14.5) O/U: 55

In order to make your showdowns work, it's imperative to find your value targets, because the per-player averages for DraftKings ($8,333 per player) and FanDuel ($12,000 per player) are prohibitively low in relation to the adjusted showdown salaries. So, this is where we'll begin our ideal build. It's also entirely possible that this is where you'll find your Captain/MVP position, keeping in mind that on DraftKings, we need to do a little math to make sure we are getting appropriate value for the price increase.

WR Myron Mitchell, UAB (DK $10,200 (CPTN), $6,800 - FD $7,500)

Mitchell sits at a nice spot for both sites. He caught four passes and scored against Central Arkansas, representing 17 percent of Tyler Johnston's completions. UAB figures to be the underdog in this game, so focusing on their passing game is going to a smart move. Miami will put their best defender on Austin Watkins, leaving Mitchell to find some extra room to navigate. He's going to be a lock on FanDuel, and could receive Captain consideration on DraftKings.

TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (DK $9,300 (CPTN), $6,200 - FD $12,000)

I don't like Jordan's salary on FanDuel at all, but DraftKings has him at a much more reasonable price -- almost too reasonable. Jordan is one of the only returning pass-catchers from the Hurricanes and is arguably one of the best tight ends in the country. The loss of DeeJay Dallas leaves a huge hole in their offensive production, and as their new QB gets his sea legs. Jordan should play a significant role as a security blanket. You have to like Jordan's potential as a CPTN on DK, but I'd probably look elsewhere on FanDuel.

WR Dee Wiggins, Miami (DK $10,800 (CPTN), $7,200 - FD $11,000)

I could just as easily pivot to Mike Harley here, because both guys have similar salaries on bith sites and are both candidates to absorb the holes left by DeeJay Dallas and K.J. Osborn. It's too early to tell how may snaps these guys will get, but they will both have a role in the passing game. I think their floor is a little too risky for a CPTN slot, but with both Harley and Wiggins coming at well below the median price on both sites, they will work well as FLEX/UTIL plays.

My super-punt for value is Miami's Don Chaney (DK $2,700 (CPTN), $1,800 - FD $7,000). He will serve as Cam'Ron Harris' primary backup despite impressive camp showings from Jaylen Knighton (also not a bad play). If you're a believer in Miami beating the spread, then the team will be inclined to give both freshmen an extended look so that Harris can rest his legs before a harrowing trio of games against Louisville, Florida State and Clemson. This is the easiest way to get all of the elites involved. Almost every successful single-game contest has a punt play, and this is the one I'm going with.

Also consider: TE Will Mallory, Miami

ELITE PLAYS

QB D'Eriq King, Miami (DK $18,300 (CPTN), $12,200 - FD $17,500)

King is the slate-topper and should be incredibly chalky in this contest. The transfer from Houston set an AAC record of 50 (!) touchdowns in a single season, passing for 36 and running in another 14 in 2018, and future opponents in the ACC are going to have a hard time crafting a game plan to stop him. He easily outdueled N'Kosi Perry for the starting gig, and is one of the primary reasons why the Canes are heavy favorites. I'm making room for him on both slates, but he's too costly for the CPTN spot on DraftKings.

RB Cam'Ron Harris, Miami (DK $14,400 (CPTN), $9,600 - FD $13,000)

Getting both King and Harris in on FanDuel will be a lot easier than DraftKings, but putting a pin on Miami's rushing game is a smart way to go, especially if the game gets out of hand. As I said above, I'm going with Harris' backup as a value add, but Harris is certain to produce as they attempt to establish a solid run game and free up King under center. Harris rushed for 576 yards and five touchdowns last season behind do-it-all hybrid back DeeJay Dallas.

Austin Watkins Jr., UAB (DK $12,600 (CPTN), $8,400 - FD $10,000)

Watkins is the unquestioned top receiver for me on this slate. I think the Blazers will be forced to get things done in the air, and after Watkins' seven-catch performance last week, he'll be in Tyler Johnston's line of sight throughout the game. At 6-foot-3, he's hard to miss out there, and he's very fast out in space.

You are able to play multiple QBs on both sites, so it's definitely feasible to play Tyler Johnston, although King is the presumptive winner in this race. As a matter of personal preference, I would play two QBs with a combo of a tight spread and a high O/U. This game doesn't fall within those parameters, but if you think UAB will cover, it isn't a terrible pla