College Football DFS Primer: Week 3

The college football season is still a mystery. However, it's a mystery we have to give ourselves over to at this point. I'm going to look at the stats from this season, or at least list the stats from this season for each game. For my own personal edification, I still looked at some numbers from last year. And now, as we head toward fall (though the weather in some parts of the country would argue against that), here's a little insight on some of the college football games on the DFS slate. 

Kansas State (+8.5) at Mississippi State, O/U 48.5, 12:00 PM ET

Kansas State stats: 50.5 points per game (12), 547.0 yards per game (11), 7.0 points allowed per game (5), 208 yards allowed per game (8)

Mississippi State stats: 38.0 points per game (38), 441.5 yards per game (55), 21.5 points allowed per game (51), 387.0 yards allowed per game (81).

You have to take Kansas State's numbers with a grain of salt, given their two games have been against Nicholls and Bowling Green. Although, to be fair, Mississippi State has played Louisiana and Southern Miss, so that's not exactly a murderer's row. What will happen when the Wildcats have to face an actual offense? I'm willing to bet on Kylin Hill ($7,500 DK) as we find out. He's averaging 7.8 yards per carry. It's a small sample size, but he averaged 6.3 yards per carry last year. Given his price, I'm intrigued by Skylar Thompson ($5,500 DK), the quarterback for the Wildcats. Chris Klieman did some great things with quarterbacks at North Dakota State, and the Bulldogs' defense is off to a slow start.

Prediction: Mississippi State gives Kansas State, and Klieman, their first dose of reality. The SEC is a little tougher than Nicholls State. Mississippi State 31, Kansas State 24

North Carolina State (-7) at West Virginia, O/U 47.5, 12:00 PM ET

North Carolina State stats: 37.5 points per game (44), 522.5 yards per game (20), 3.0 points allowed per game (2), 187.5 yards allowed per game (5)

West Virginia stats: 13.5 points per game (123), 232.5 yards per game (127), 25.5 points allowed per game (68), 355.0 yards allowed per game (63)

I'm completely writing off NC State's numbers based on its competition so far. On the other hand, I am very skeptical about West Virginia. Someday in the future they'll probably turn it around, but this has the look of a true Year Zero for new head coach Neal Brown as he sorts out a roster that ranked 105th in returning production from 2018. Sure, losing 38-7 to Missouri on the road is one thing, but the Mountaineers only beat James Madison by a score of 20-13. No more Dana Holgorsen. No more Will Grier. The times they are a changin'.

For the Wolf Pack, I'd be willing to take a shot on Tabari Hines ($4,300 DK). He currently leads the team in receiving yards with 110. The senior lost last season to injury, but the last time he played a full campaign, he had 683 yards and seven touchdowns. Hines is relatively cheap, and that makes him feel like an option with a lot of upside against West Virginia.

Prediction: Another rough day for West Virginia, who could be en route to a real forgettable campaign. North Carolina State 42, West Virginia 10

Pittsburgh (+17) at Penn State, O/U 53.5 12:00 PM ET

Pitt stats: 17.0 points per game (112), 131.5 yards per game (130), 30.0 points allowed per game (96), 310.0 yards allowed per game (45)

Penn State stats: 62.0 points per game (2), 515.0 yards per game (26), 10.0 points allowed per game (13), 287.0 yards allowed per game (32)

The classic Pennsylvania rivalry is set for its 100th installment Saturday in Happy Valley. Obviously, a quick glimpse at these offensive numbers tell two different tales. The thing about Pitt is that it faced Virginia and Ohio. Those aren't easy matchups, but it's still concerning that the Panthers rank last in yards per game. I can't buy into anybody on that offense after this achingly slow start. Their leading rusher has 25 yards. That says it all.

I'm not amazed by Penn State beating up on Idaho and Buffalo, but you can't deny Sean Clifford ($7,300 DK) and his big numbers. The guy got Tommy Stevens to transfer when he was considered the next in line to follow Trace McSorley. In addition to throwing for 559 yards and six touchdowns, Clifford leads the Nittany Lions with 18 carries for 108 yards. I also like tight end Pat Freiermuth ($4,200 DK), who is listed as a wide receiver for DFS purposes. His numbers aren't from beating up on Idaho, as he had eight catches for 99 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo.

In the backfield, it's been tough to sort out the Pnn State rushers. All of Noah Cain ($4,000 DK), Journey Brown ($4,100 DK), Devyn Ford ($3,800 DK), and Ricky Slade (4,600 DK) have between seven and 11 carries this season. While Ford has the team lead in yards, all of that comes from Week 1 for the most part. he had just one carry for one yard against Buffalo. 

Prediction: Sean Clifford comes up big while the Pitt offense basically gets shut down once more. Penn State 38, Pitt 10

Ohio State (-14.5) at Indiana,O/U 60 12:00 PM ET

Ohio State stats: 43.5 points per game (22), 488.5 yards per game (33), 10.5 points allowed per game (16), 250.5 yards allowed per game (20)

Indiana stats: 43.0 points per game (23), 514.5 yards per game (27), 12.0 points allowed per  game (18), 257.0 yards allowed per game (23)

This is a great time to point out how early season numbers can be misleading. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers have quite similar numbers. However, Indiana did it against Ball State and Eastern Illinois, while Ohio State took down FAU and Cincinnati. The Bearcats were legit last season, and the Buckeyes smashed them 42-0. Ryan Day and Justin Fields are not messing around. Ohio State has lost zero steps despite the changes at two vital positions.

Nobody on the Hoosiers has really stood out, despite the solid numbers through two games. They've sort of spread it around. I have no faith in Indiana against Ohio State. Justin Fields ($9,200 DK) is expensive. He's also worth it, if you are willing to spend big for an elite player. In addition to throwing for six touchdowns against zero interceptions, he's added three scores with his legs. I also like K.J. Hill ($5,700). He had 70 catches for 885 and six touchdowns last year. He's already got 11 receptions for 78 yards and a score this season and he leads the team in targets with 13..

Prediction: The Ohio State locomotive is full steam ahead. It won't be pretty for the Hoosiers. Ohio State 42, Indiana 21

Maryland (-8) at Temple, O/U 64, 12:00 PM ET

Maryland stats: 71.0 points per game (1), 636.5 yards per game (4), 10.0 points allowed per game (13), 234.0 yards allowed per game (17)

Temple stats: 56.0 points per game (6), 695.0 yards per game (2), 12 points allowed per game (18), 211.0 yards allowed per game (10)

The Owls are just a big ol' mystery. They've only played one game this  year, and it was against Bucknell. You could look at numbers from last season, but they have a new head coach, so even those numbers are a little sketchy for projection. Besides, like a lot of college football fans, I just want to talk about the Terps. It was one thing when Maryland walloped Howard 79-0. Then, they beat a ranked Syracuse team 63-20. Mike Locksley's offense has been stellar so far, and that's really intriguing.

It seems like DraftKings still has some skepticism about Maryland quarterback Josh Jackson ($6,600). He's thrown for 541 yards, seven touchdowns, and an interception. You'd think he'd be pricier, but Jackson still feels like a bargain, at least if you have any faith in what he's done this year, and in past seasons. The running back situation in Maryland is a little hard to read right now. Four guys have gotten double-digit carries, and two guys have at least 20 carries. Three guys have at least two rushing touchdowns. If I had to go with one, though, it'd be Anthony McFarland($6,600 DK), who has five touchdowns, including one through the air.

Prediction: We find out that Maryland's offense is for real, even if it takes a small step back. Maryland 52, Temple 27

Alabama (-26) at South Carolina, O/U 60, 3:30 PM ET

Alabama stats: 52.0 points per game (10), 557.5 yards per game (9), 6.5 points allowed per game (3), 233.0 yards allowed per game (16)

South Carolina stats: 46.0 points per game (19), 522.5 yards per game (20), 17.0 points allowed per game (36), 375.0 yards allowed per game (72)

It's been a rough season for the Gamecocks, even if they are coming off a 72-10 win over Charleston Southern. They lost their opener to North Carolina, and Jake Bentley is out for the season. That leaves Ryan Hilinski ($5,200 DK, $8,400 FD) as the starting quarterback. Of course, even if Bentley was around, I wouldn't be interested in any South Carolina players against the Crimson Tide defense. That's not based on their numbers this year. That's based on, oh, a decade of history.

If you want to spend money on a wide receiver, just go with Jerry Jeudy ($8,000 DK, $10,300 FD). He's the best receiver in college football, and he already has 240 yards and four touchdowns. If you want to save a little cash, go with Jaylen Waddle ($6,100 DK, $7,400 FD). As a freshman he had 45 catches for 848 and seven touchdowns, which shows the potential he clearly has, especially in this offense.

Prediction: Alabama does what Alabama has done for years. Alabama 45, South Carolina 17

Stanford (+7) at UCF, O/U 60, 3:30 PM ET

Stanford stats: 18.5 points per game (107), 350.0 yards per game (92), 26.0 points allowed per game (70), 351.0 yards allowed per game (62)

UCF stats: 55.0 points per game (7), 634.0 yards per game (5), 7.0 points allowed per game (5), 205.0 yards allowed per game (6)

Stanford had to use backup quarterback Davis Mills ($5,000 DK, $7,800 FD) last week against USC, but it actually scored more points than in its opener against Northwestern. K.J. Costello ($7,300DK, $9,000 FD) is expected back this week, which is a good thing for the Cardinal. He showed up last year that he's got the goods under center, and is Stanford's best option at quarterback for 2019. Given that the Golden Knights have only played FAMU and FAU, I'm not buying their defensive numbers yet. As such, I'd be willing to buy into Cameron Scarlett ($5,900 DK, $$8,600 FD), who has stepped into Bryce Love's shows as the clear lead back for the Cardinal.

The quarterback situation for UCF is a little murky right now, but whoever is under center I'm backing Gabriel Davis ($5,800 DK, $8,400 FD). He looks like clearly the top receiver, as he has six catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Nobody else has more than 74 yards for the Golden Knights.

Prediction: Even if Costello comes back, Stanford's offense still scuffles a bit on the road, while UCF's numbers on offense also drop a bit. UCF 31, Stanford 17

USC (-4.5) at BYU, O/U 55.5, 3:30 PM ET

USC stats: 38.0 points per game (38), 469.5 yards per game (39), 21.5 points allowed per game (51), 398.5 yards allowed per game (85)

BYU stats: 20.5 points per game (98), 319.5 yards per game (106), 28.0 points allowed per game (87), 393.0 yards allowed per game (83)

So it turns out the sky didn't fall. When JT Daniels went down for the year for the Trojans, there was much hand wringing about what their offense would do. The Trojans were expected to fall to Stanford with Kedon Slovis ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD), a true freshman, under center. Well, Slovis went 28-for-33 for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinal. Seems like USC will be just fine. As for BYU's offense, well, it took them two overtimes to score 29 points against Tennessee. The Trojans don't look great on defense, and an Air Raid offense tends to tax a team's defense, but I'm still wishy washy on BYU offensively.

My feelings for Tyler Vaughns ($5,700 DK, $9,400 FD) are set in stone, though. He's been the biggest beneficiary of Graham Harrell's offensive revolution in LA, as he has 16 catches for 256 yards. Also, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5,000 DK, $8,200 FD) just had eight catches for 97  yards and two touchdowns. As a freshman he had 60 catches for 750 yards. I like his upside.

Prediction: BYU couldn't figure out how to stop Utah's offense. What are they going to do against USC? Trojans 34, BYU 21

Oklahoma State (-14) at Tulsa, O/U 65.5, 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State stats: 54.0 points per game (9), 567.5 yards per game (8), 25.0 points allowed per game (67), 383 yards allowed per game (78)

Tulsa stats: 20.5 points per game (98), 309.5 yards per game (110), 22.0 points allowed per game (43), 325.5 yards allowed per game (49)

Yeah yeah, Oklahoma State has only played Oregon State and McNeese State. This is a Mike Gundy offense and we've been seeing the Cowboys rack up yards and points for years under Gundy both with and without his mullet. Tulsa got stuck facing Michigan State's tough defense in their opener, and then they got to beat up on San Jose State. The Cowboys' defense should be somewhere between those two.

I can't, in good conscience, not recommend Tylan Wallace ($8,600 DK, $9,800). Not impressed by 10 catches for 272 yards and five touchdowns against his competition this season? Alright, then try this on for size: He had 86 receptions for 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. This is a dude you can trust. However, I also like Tulsa's top receiver Sam Crawford ($4,600 DK, $7,700 FD). He already has 14 catches for 186 yards and a score.

In the backfield, Chuba Hubbard ($8,300 DK, $10,000 FD) is the priciest running back on the board, and with good reason. 34 carries for 265 yards and four touchdowns in two games will work. For Tulsa, T.K. Wilkerson ($4,500 DK, $5,400 FD) has been the most explosive back with 92 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries.

Prediction: I think both offenses look good, but Oklahoma State's looks better, especially in the passing game. Oklahoma State 45, Tulsa 28

UNLV (+19.5) at Northwestern, O/U 57, 3:30 PM ET

UNLV stats: 36.5 points per game (46), 417.0 yards per game (65), 33.0 points allowed per game (108), 419.5 yards allowed per game (97)

Northwestern stats: 7.0 points per game (128), 210.0 yards per game (128), 17.0 points allowed per game (36), 365.0 yards allowed per game (68)

The Wildcats have only played one game, and it was against Stanford. It was also a rough one, not just because they only scored seven points. Quarterback T.J. Green was lost for the season, leaving Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson to call the signals. That being said, I could see Northwestern's offense bouncing back here. UNLV's numbers aren't good, as you can tell, and they came against Arkansas State and Southern Utah. When the mighty Thunderbirds of SUU scores 23 points on you, it's not great.

I'm not trusting anybody on UNLV's offense, since so much of their success was against an FCS team. Honestly, I would suggest steering clear of this game as a whole, but if you want somebody, the best option is Isaiah Bowser ($6,200). As a freshman in 2018, he rushed for 866 yards and six touchdowns.

Prediction: The Wildcats score more than one touchdown. Jump for joy. Northwestern 24, UNLV 13

Arizona State (+12.5) at Michigan State, O/U 44.5 4:00 PM ET

Arizona State stats: 24.5 points per game (85), 425.0 yards per game (60), 7.0 points allowed per game (5), 252.5 yards allowed per game (21)

Michigan State stats: 39.5 points per game (33), 442.5 yards per game (54), 12.0 points allowed per game (18), 216.0 yards allowed per game (13)

The defensive numbers for both these teams are impressive, but let's delve a little deeper. Arizona State has played Kent State and Sacramento State. Michigan State has played Tulsa and Western Michigan. I'd give the edge to the Spartans, though that isn't a tough schedule. That being said, Mark Dantonio's defenses have a history of success, so I still believe in the power of Sparty. My biggest question, though, is how did the Sun Devils only score 19 points against Sacramento State? That's concerning, especially with a true freshman in Jayden Daniels ($6,500 DK$9,200 FD)at quarterback.

I have two qualified recommendations for this game. Eno Benjamin ($7,500 DK, $9,200 FD) was great last year. He rushed for 1,642 yards and 16 touchdowns while also adding 263 yards and two scores receiving. Benjamin is off to a slow start, and the Spartans are a tough matchup, but those numbers from last year are encouraging. For the Spartans, Elijah Collins ($3,000 DK, $7,200 FD) is minimum-priced on DrafKings and is arguably the most screaming value on this slate on that site. FanDuel's pricing is more in line with Collins' projected output after he ran for 192 yards in Week 2 and was named the starting running back Tuesday morning.

At receiver, Darrell Stewart ($5,800 DK, $8,800 FD), meanwhile, is a senior for the Spartans with a promising target volume. However, the receiver has 16 catches for 241 yards to start the year. If you consider Arizona State's defensive success at least partially due to feasting on cupcakes, which I do, there is potential there.

Prediction: This will be a low-scoring game that could be one of those "first team to 20 points wins" deals. Michigan State 27, Arizona State 17

Iowa (-1) at Iowa State, O/U 44 4:00 PM ET

Iowa stats: 34.0 points per game (55), 451.5 yards per game (52), 7.0 points allowed per game (5), 185.0 yards allowed per game (4)

Iowa State stats: 29 points per game (71), 463.0 yards per game (44), 26.0 points allowed per game (70), 262.0 yards allowed per game (24)

On a personal level, I'm kind of disappointed that Iowa State fell out of the rankings. It would have been fun if these two rivals were playing while both ranked. Alas, the Cyclones needed three overtimes to beat Northern Iowa, and that tends to reflect poorly on a team. That being said, Iowa State wouldn't be the first team to scuffle against an FCS squad and then turn out just find in the long run. We just don't know yet. The power of a small sample size. In their own sample size of two games, Iowa has looked really good, admittedly against the Miami that's in Ohio and Rutgers.

Triple overtime lets a player rack up some extra stats, but either way, Deshaunte Jones ($4,600 DK, $8,000 FD) had 14 catches in one game. Brock Purdy ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD) seemed quite happy to throw him the ball, even if he didn't find the end zone. Here's a prediction: Nate Stanley ($6,000 DK, $9,000 FD), Iowa's quarterback, ends up going in the first round in the NFL Draft. He's just one of those quarterbacks who don't put up flashy numbers, but he's really good. He's thrown for 488 yards and six touchdowns against zero interceptions.