College Football DFS: Night Slate: Week 13

We're blessed with a much cleaner situation on Saturday's late slate.  Sometimes FanDuel and DraftKings can vary wildly with their game selection in this time slot, but thankfully there are only a few games where we deviate.  Let's take a look at the spreads and Over/Unders for these games.

LSU (-43.5) vs. Arkansas O/U: 69

Texas Tech (-2) vs. Kansas State O/U: 55.5

Oregon (-14) @ Arizona State O/U: 52.5

Wake Forest (-7) s. Duke O/U: 50

Tulsa (-2.5) vs. Houston O/U: 58.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

Oklahoma (-18) vs. TCU O/U: 65

Washington State (-10.5) vs. Oregon State O/U: 75

Missouri (-3.5) vs. Tennessee O/U:45.5  (FANDUEL ONLY)

Cincinnati (-10) vs. Temple O/U: 46 (FANDUEL ONLY)

I'll get into which games to target and fade at the end of the article, so if you see me overlook an elite guy and say, "what's up with this guy?', worry not.  It's probably in my target/fade section. Also, for the games that only hit one site, I'm going to provide a separate section to look at targets there.

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (DK 9,000, FD $12,000) vs. TCU

To say something like, 'I'm thinking TCU will keep this close' is a pronouncement we don't even need to make because it seems that Oklahoma has an innate talent when it comes to keeping things close. TCU is just that sort of opponent. At 5-5, the Horned Frogs are no pushovers, and Oklahoma's defense is erratic and undisciplined.  What does this all mean? I think we see Hurts for all four quarters, and he'll give us a solid floor FP number in the high 30's or low 40's.  

Skylar Thompson, Kansas State (DK, $6,600) FD $8,400) @ Texas Tech

Thompson is my favorite mid-level grab.  The Red Raiders are the favorite, but a look at the numbers reveals just how soft the team is against the pass. Over their last nine games, Texas Tech ranks a paltry 363rd in the nation against the pass, allowing an average of 323.8 passing yards per game against opposing signal-callers. With the exception of West Virginia's Austin Kendall, the Red Raiders have allowed over 30 FP to guys like Max Duggan, Brock Purdy and Charlie Brewer over the past month.

Max Duggan, TCU (DK $6,300, FD $8,900) @ Oklahoma

I'm obviously dead serious when I say the Horned frogs could be competitive on Saturday.  Duggan's one of the lowest-priced starters on the slate, and I think he'll be a great value against Oklahoma's porous secondary. The freshman standout is coming off a career day against Texas Tech, where he compiled 323 yards in the air and 75 on the ground to go along with three touchdowns. He's exceeded expectations and rivals maybe only Kedon Slovis as one of the most poised and polished freshman QBs in the country.

Also consider: Jamie Newman, Wake Forest (DK $7,100, FD $9,800) vs. Duke

RUNNING BACK

CJ Verdell, Oregon (DK $6,400, FD $7,700) @ Arizona State

I'm on Verdell because I think the Ducks will take care of things early against the Sun Devils, as this is a game Oregon desperately needs to turn into an exclamation point for the playoff committee.  They are definitely going to air it out, but they'll lean on Verdell as they pull away. Arizona State ranks an impressive 34th against the run, but their secondary is so weak, a lot of teams don't even bother running the ball against them, which might be one factor affecting that metric. If you think Verdell is too expensive, Travis Dye (DK $4,900 FD $6,600) is making the most of his opportunities in the Oregon backfield, with 146 yards over the past two games.

Rakeem Boyd, Arkansas (DK $6,400, FD $7,800) @ LSU

You might shy away from Boyd against the Tigers, but if you look at some of the Razorbacks' tougher matchups this year, he's still managed to get things done.  He had 85 yards of total offense against Alabama and over 100 yards of total offense against Texas A&M. He's a great low ownership target, and while you could be practical and go with an LSU rusher, there are question marks all over that position due to injury.  If it turns out that Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800, FD $9,400) can play, pivoting to him would be sensible, especially on DraftKings, where he's only $400 more expensive.

James Gilbert, Kansas State (DK $5,300, FD $7,500) @ Texas Tech

Gilbert's price is low because he's been dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss Week 11.  He came back in Week 12 and had one of his best games of the season with 88 yards of total offense and a touchdown.  You should probably pay attention to inactives before game lock if you go this route, but taking a flier here could really help you out with a high-priced WR or an additional QB in the Super Flex.

WIDE RECEIVER

Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (DK $8,100, FD $9,700) vs. Arkansas

The great thing about Chase is that he still produces in a blowout, which this game could certainly become by halftime.  He's the unquestioned leader of this slate at wideout in a vacuum, but some people might be scared due to the lopsided nature of this game.  He put up 227 yards and three touchdowns in a 21-point victory against Ole Miss, and even logged 54 yards and a touchdown against Utah State, so as you can see, he sticks around.  

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest (DK $6,200, FD $7,700) vs. Duke

Although Duke possesses one of the ACC's better pass defenses, Wake should be able to get their passing game humming again.  The loss of Sage Surratt hurts, but Hinton has emerged as the primary guy for Jamie Newman. The Demon Deacons have depended on the pass all season and despite the setbacks, they'll ride a Newman-Hinton tandem all day on Saturday.

Jaylon Redd, Oregon (DK $5,800, FD $7,200) @ Arizona State

Redd's touchdown train has slowed down, but Justin Herbert is always hunting for Redd in the 'redd' zone. If he gets that one touchdown he'll be good for around 10 points, and though that's nothing great, it is pretty darn good for $5,800.

GAME TO TARGET

Washington State vs. Oregon State

This game is so chock-full of targets, it almost merits its own article. I have no problem making a build from this game by itself.  Both Anthony Gordon (DK $8,300, FD $10,500) and Jake Luton (DK $6,700, FD $8,200) are excellent plays at quarterback, and they have a bevy of receiving targets to choose from on both sides of the ball.  The marquee wideout for Oregon State is Isaiah Hodgins (DK $7,700, FD $9,600), but I'll go with secondary WR target Brandon Arconado (DK $7,200, FD $9,000) as the best play for the Cougars, as he's been red-hot lately, with four 100-plus receiving yard games and five touchdowns over that span.  At running back, the Cougar's Max Borghi (DK $8,000), FD $9,300) stands head-and-shoulders above the rest of the rushers on this slate. Not only is he an excellent runner, but he's also a favorite target of Anthony Gordon out of the backfield, with a whopping 60 receptions for 468 yards and four touchdowns this season. The Beavers' running back corps is a bit muddier and I can't give a full-throated endorsement on that side, but Artavis Pierce (DK $5,800, FD $7,600) is the guy to roll with if you choose to go that route. 

ONE-SITE GAMES

Tulsa vs. Houston (DraftKings)

With injury question marks for Tulsa, Clayton Tune ($6,500) is really the only viable signal-caller in this game, but WR Marquez Stevenson ($5,900) is Houston's best target.  With things shaky on the Tulsa end at quarterback, you can pretty safely fade their receivers. Mulbah Car ($5,800) and Shamari Brooks ($5,400) are the running backs in this contest, and if I had to promote one, I would go with Car.

Cincinnati vs. Temple (FanDuel)

The low Over/Under for this game is enough to make me fade it altogether, but the top target on the list are cheap enough to be considered. I'd limit my exposure to Michael Warren II ($8,900), who leads the Bearcats' rushing attack.

Missouri vs. Tennessee (FANDUEL ONLY)

The O/U for this game is even less inspiring, The Vols' Jauan Jennings ($8,700) grabs catches from a QB tandem, so while going with those guys is a no-no, you could go contrarian and play Jennings.  I'm fading the Mizzou side.