College Football DFS: National Championship Showdown Slate

Welcome to our showdown slate breakdown for Monday's national championship game between Alabama and Ohio State. Alabama checks in as 8.5-point favorites, up from the opening line of 7.0 that was set after Ohio State's upset win over Clemson. The total checks in at 75.0 points, the highest of any championship game in the BCS or Playoff Era. The defenses are good on both sides, but the offenses have the edge here and we should be treated to a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. 

Below you'll find our suite of DFS Tools along with a matchup overview and a breakdown of core and leverage plays for the showdown slate. 

DFS Tools

• DraftKings Lineup Optimizer
• NEW Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
• Advanced Lineups Page
• Stats
• Team Trends
• Targets
• Defense vs. Position
• Team Rankings

Matchup overview

This sets up to be a great matchup worthy of the stakes at play. On one side we have the Heisman Trophy winner, DeVonta Smith, along with a pair of Heisman vote-getters in quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. Alabama also took home the Joe Moore Award for the nation's best offensive line. That's a lot for Ohio State to contend with, but you already knew that. 

There's also the developing storyline involving Jaylen Waddle, who may be back for this game after suffering what was thought to be a season-ending ankle injury in October. Waddle has been practicing and is considered a game-time call for Monday. He checks in at $7,400 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel. A healthy Garrett Wilson is $7,000 on DK and $10,500 on FD, for context. 

The fear with Waddle is obviously the snap count. How much can you really expect a player less than three months removed from that type of injury to play in his first game back? Waddle is of course a threat to take it to the house any time he gets the ball, but his snap and target projections are perilously low. As hard as it is to fade a talent like Waddle, the common-sense move would be to stay away from a player coming off a long injury-related layoff. 

Core Plays

DeVonta Smith, Alabama ($18,000 Captain, $12,000 Flex on DK; $16,000 FD)

You don't have to make him your captain/MVP, but I have a hard time seeing a competitive lineup that doesn't have the Heisman Trophy winner at all. Smith doesn't need much explanation here -- he's automatic. He commands a 35 percent target share but remains relentlessly efficient with that volume, averaging 12.4 yards per target. That 12.4 mark was the second-best of any receiver with at least 80 targets, trailing only North Carolina's Dyami Brown (12.9) who had 47 fewer targets. He is the engine of the most explosive offenses in college football. Smith is a must-play Monday, in my opinion.

Justin Fields, Ohio State ($17,100 Captain, $11,400 Flex on DK; $15,500 FD)

The ribs might affect Fields' willingness to run Monday after he took a wicked shot from James Skalski in the semifinal. Even if that's the case, Fields' showcase through the air against Clemson should give his backers some confidence heading into this matchup. Fields shredded a great Clemson secondary for 22-for-28 for 385 yards and six touchdowns, marking his fourth game with at least 300 yards in seven games this season. 

Alabama will be putting up points on the other side, which should shift Ohio State into pass-first mode. Sure, Fields is at his best when he's a threat as a runner and as a passer, but he's still an extremely gifted passer with explosive skill players all around him. He can operate even without the threat of the run. 

Alabama's defensive metrics look good over the course of the entire season, but a lot of that has to do with dominating its lesser opponents. Against quality offenses, the Tide have looked mortal. In the games against Ole Miss, Florida, and Notre Dame, the Tide allowed a 68 percent completion rate for 1,023 yards, five touchdowns, and one pick. I'm cherrypicking a little bit here, but how Alabama fared against Florida means more for this matchup than how it did against Auburn or LSU. Fields can inflict similar damage through the air with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson at his disposal. 

Mac Jones, Alabama ($16,200 Captain; $10,800 Flex on DK; $13,500 FD)

Jones doesn't have Fields' mobility, but that might not be that big of a factor on this slate if Fields is less inclined than usual to run. On top of that, Jones is in a matchup where Ohio State is more susceptible to the pass than it is to the run, so this sets up to be a busy night for the Heisman finalist. 

Against ranked teams this season, Jones has completed 77.3 percent of his passes at 11.9 YPA while throwing for 17 touchdowns and three picks in four outings. Ohio State, meanwhile, is middling against the pass, having allowed 281 passing yards per game this season. The key to Ohio State disrupting the Clemson offense was its ability to generate pressure up the middle. Don't expect the Buckeyes to have that same level of success against this wall of an Alabama offensive line, so Jones will have time to operate and facilitate the ball to his playmakers. Jones' lack of rushing upside has steered me away from him in DFS at times this season, but on a showdown slate, it's hard to go away from him. 

Najee Harris, Alabama ($15,900 Captain; $10,600 Flex on DK; $14,500 FD)

Harris is a tough evaluation for this slate. It's no secret that he can take over a game either as a runner or as a pass-catcher. He has accounted for at least 20 PPR points in all but one game this season and has five games of 30-or-more PPR points. A matchup against Ohio State doesn't really qualify as a smash spot, however, even when accounting for how well Harris has done even against tough competition this season. Ohio State allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (89.1) in the nation this season on just 3.2 YPC. 

Harris is a fine play, but this matchup coupled with the possibility of his carry volume being capped in the mid-teens will steer me in another direction for at least my captain/MVP spot. 

Differentiators 

Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State ($4,800 DK; $7,000 FD)

Ruckert has had inconsistent usage throughout the season but Ohio State may have found its X-factor in the passing game in the semifinal against Clemson when he was a mismatch for the Tiger secondary. He caught three of four targets for 55 yards and a pair of touchdowns, looking physically dominant along the way. Alabama will have its hands full slowing down Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, so Ruckert attacking the seams could be a staple of the game plan Monday. 

The Tide has struggled against talented tight ends this season. It's not just the Kenny Yeboah or Kyle Pitts games, either. Notre Dame's Michael Mayer caught seven of nine targets against the Tide. Alabama has given up 700 yards to opposing tight ends on 78 targets. Ruckert stands out as a value play with upside who could see the third-most targets for the Buckeyes.

Jahleel Billingsley, Alabama ($5,400 DK; $8,500 FD)

Billingsley is another tight end play worth considering Monday. He of course will be fighting for targets behind Smith, Metchie, and possibly Waddle, but Billingsley has shown he can do damage with his opportunities. He has caught 16 of 17 targets for 260 yards and three touchdowns in six games. He'll need a touchdown to hit value given how low his target ceiling is, but Billingsley is a worthwhile dart as an athletic mismatch against the Buckeyes.

Will Reichard, Alabama ($3,800 DK Only)

I know, I know. A kicker. And an Alabama kicker, no less. But Reichard has broken the cycle of bad Alabama kicking, having converted all 77 of his extra points and all 13 of his field goals. The 77 extra points is jaw-dropping for a 12-game sample. That's over six extra points per game right there. And he's making one field goal per game on average, so right away we can see Reichard as a legitimate candidate to return double-digit fantasy points. That's not something you can easily say about most of the other options at that end of the player pool. I'm more comfortable with going after Reichard over Slade Bolden or Brian Robinson Jr., for example.