College Football DFS: Myrtle Beach Bowl

Let's kick off the bowl season with the Myrtle Beach Bowl, a matchup between the Sun Belt and C-USA. Since we have just one game on Monday, I'll make sure to focus on the showdown/single-game formats in my analysis.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Appalachian State vs. North Texas (+19.5) O/U: 63.5

Unfortunately, we don't get to begin with a competitive bowl game as this is a lopsided matchup between a decent Mountaineers squad (finished 2nd in the Sun Belt) and a lower-tier Mean Green squad (finished 4th in C-USA). No disrespect to North Texas, however, they fielded one of the worst defenses in the nation while giving up 509.4 yards per game and 41.3 points per game. App State is on the other side of the spectrum with one of the better defenses in the nation at just 313.5 yards per game and 19.3 points per game. This means that most DFS players will have a concrete idea of how this game is going to go and we'll take that into account when recommending players for cash and tournament formats.

WEATHER

Conway, SC (~56 degrees & 50% chance of rain)

The forecast looks like it will clear up by the 1:30 PM CT kick-off, so I wouldn't expect the weather to have a huge effect on this game. Even if the potential rain from the morning lingers, it doesn't appear to be a significant storm or anything.

INJURIES

RB Marcus Williams, App State (undisclosed) QUESTIONABLE
The running back position for the Mountaineers will be an important one because North Texas is giving up 243.6 rushing yards per game and a tantalizing 5.5 yards per attempt. That's not even the best part as they are giving up 2.9 rushing scores per game compared to 2.6 passing scores per game. If Williams (DK $5,200, FD $7,500) can't go, it will be Camerun Peoples (DK $8,400, FD $13,000) and Nathaniel Noel (DK $6,400, FD $10,000). But if Williams can suit up, he'll be a huge value play, so pay close attention before the game.

WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas (declared for NFL Draft) OUT
If only we could have Darden (DK $1,500, FD $6,000) at such a low price, but he did make the announcement via Twitter that he is declaring for the 2021 NFL Draft. He had an unbelievable senior season with 74 catches for 1,190 yards and 19 touchdowns on 118 targets. That leaves Deonte Simpson (DK $9,400, FD $12,000) and Austin Ogunmakin (DK $3,200, FD $7,500) as the top receivers for the Mean Green.

QUARTERBACK

Zac Thomas, App State (DK $10,800, FD $15,000)
There's a great chance that Thomas is the popular pick for the Captain and MVP spots as he is the highest projected player on the slate. The only problem with going here for those picks is that it will be extremely expensive and it will mean that you need to have value plays in a couple of other spots. I think the smarter move will be to lean on the Mountaineers run-game for the top spot and have Thomas in one of the flex spots at a cheaper price. This will allow you to capture all of the potential Mountaineers' production as opposed to missing out on the run-game.

FADE ALERT
Austin Aune, North Texas (DK $10,600, FD $14,000)
Jason Bean, North Texas (DK $10,400, FD $14,000)
Aune and Bean shared snaps for most of the season, yet it was Aune who played the most and was fantastic with 302 passing yards and six total touchdowns in a 45-43 win over UTEP in their regular season finale. If you're going to play a Mean Green QB, I would go with the hot hand. Yet, I think it could be sneaky to avoid the Mean Green passing game all together to load up on the App State playmakers with a North Texas' RB since you have to pick someone from the other side. Each of these guys are just far too expensive and they lost their best weapon in Darden.

RUNNING BACK

TOP CAPTAIN/MVP PICK
Camerun Peoples, App State (DK $8,400, FD $13,000)
If Williams (DK $5,200, FD $7,500) is not in play for the game,  Peoples is my top recommendation for the captain or MVP pick because the slight savings will allow you to lock up all of the potential Mountaineers production and still fit Torrey below in your line-up. As I discussed above, App State's run game is the most likely unit to have a huge day and Peoples is the most talented back left on the depth chart. There was a stretch in the season where he had a touchdown in six straight games, so they do trust him in the red-zone where the Mountaineers will have a ton of opportunities on the day. With this play, I would also get either Williams and/or Nathaniel Noel (DK $6,400, FD $10,000) in the line-up too.

DeAndre Torrey, North Texas (DK $7,200, FD $10,500)
While Tre Siggers (DK $4,800, FD $9,000) and Oscar Adaway (DK $5,800, FD $11,500) have seen more work lately, Torrey remains the alpha in the North Texas backfield. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that North Texas will lean on their most experienced playmaker with Darden not in the line-up, so I like getting Torrey in the game, especially if Aune plays over Bean.

WIDE RECEIVER

Thomas Hennigan (DK $9,000, FD $9,500) & Malik Williams (DK $7,800, FD $8,000), App State  
Feel comfortable to deploy the senior duo of Hennigan and Williams who have been the top pass-catchers for Appalachian State this season. Hennigan is on a hot streak with at least four catches and five targets in each of his last four games, so he likely has the higher floor. Williams provides a bit more upside as he had seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown versus Troy in Week 13. Unless you want to make a contrarian play at the Captain/MVP spot, I would avoid going here as App State likely won't need to throw the ball if they jump out to a huge lead.

Austin Ogunmakin, North Texas (DK $3,200, FD $7,500) 
This is a pure punt play as Ogunmakin has just 16 catches for 218 yards on 35 targets this season, yet he's at least priced at a value. The far pricier Deonte Simpson (DK $9,400, FD $12,000) has just 25 catches for 517 yards and four touchdowns on 43 targets. Darden really dominated the target share on the season and there's a real possibility App State can shut down the North Texas pass game. Moreover, If Jason Bean does enter the game, he prefers to run the ball and that takes both receivers out of the game for the most part.