College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB Week 9 Main Slate

CFB DFS: DraftKings College Football DFS Week 9 Main Slate

Welcome into another DraftKings College Football main slate breakdown as we dig into the Week 9 board. We're blessed with some great games with real implications, and also plenty of games with serious DFS juice.

10 of the 24 teams on the slate have implied totals of at least 29.0 points. Five of those are projected for 32 or more points. That gives us a ton of options for how we want to build our lineups. Let's begin.

Slate Overview

Tight Spreads & High Totals

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides with little worry about the star players being pulled, like we do when a game gets lopsided. 

Here are this week's games to target:

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs Baylor (O/U 67.5)

This game has the highest total on the board by far. The next closest game -- Memphis vs USF -- checks in at 58.5. Both sides here are expected to clear 30 points. Cincy ranks 14th in offensive efficiency per FEI, while Baylor is set at 21st. Baylor road games have been particularly wild; each of them has had at least 70 points scored, and the combined average is 81 points.

The quarterbacks, Sawyer Robertson ($8,700) and Brendan Sorsby ($7,400), are both very much in play. As for the Baylor pass-catchers, Michael Trigg ($6,100) has back-to-back games with 12+ targets, though last week's three catches on 12 targets was less than ideal. Josh Cameron ($5,500) has a strong role as well and actually has a better catch rate (76%) over the last month than Trigg, which ups his floor in PPR. 

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Baylor's workhorse running back, Bryson Washington ($7,300), is at a discount but for a good reason. He's been a little dinged up of late, and it's limiting his rushing workload; Washington has just 30 carries and three catches in the last three weeks. This could be a good buy-low spot against a shaky Cincy run defense, but you'd be banking on a sudden uptick in volume. 

Memphis (+5.5) vs USF (O/U 58.5)

This game has major AAC implications and DFS implications to boot. The total checks in just under 60 points, with Memphis having the No.16 offense per SP+ and USF not far behind at 26. In addition to good offenses, we have mediocre defenses ranking in the 50s per SP+. 

If you're interested in the Memphis side, you'll need to stay on top of the injury news regarding starting quarterback Brendon Lewis ($6,700) who is questionable after leaving last week's game. AJ Hill would be in line to start if Lewis is unable to go. Either way, Memphis only throws it 40% of the time and goes at a methodical pace (66 plays per game), so the run game should be featured here. Greg Desrosiers ($7,600) and Sutton Smith ($6,500) are fully priced and will need that workload bump, seeing as neither of them are big volume guys (132 combined carries). 

When Memphis does throw, it's often to Cortez Braham ($5,800), who owns a 31 percent target share over the last four games and averages 10.6 YPT. 

Byrum Brown ($9,000), on the other side, makes everything go for USF. He's rattling off 30.3 DK Points per game, having accounted for 22 total touchdowns and nearly 2,200 total yards of offense. He has thrown for at least three touchdowns in four straight games and has added a rushing touchdown in three of those outings. Memphis has been good at stopping the QB run, even limiting Taylen Green to 52 rushing yards, but Brown should still be able to get his on Saturday. 

• Arkansas (-2.5) vs Auburn (O/U 55.5) kicks at 12:45 ET, and there's a chance the weather is pretty nasty. That doesn't hurt Auburn much but it might limit Taylen Green's effectiveness through the air. 

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Quarterback

Chandler Morris, Virginia ($7,900) at North Carolina

I love the setup for the Virginia offense this week. Morris' Cavaliers are expected to score over 30 points according to Vegas. He has admittedly struggled in terms of production in the last two outings, with a combined 19.4 DK points at Louisville and against Washington State. To be fair, Louisville ranks 11th in defensive FEI. The Wazzu came is harder to explain as the Cougs are 52nd in that metric, but I digress.

The big thing is that Morris has feasted on lesser competition this year. He feasted on Stanford in Week 4 to the tune of 42.1 DK Points. This matchup with UNC is on par with that. North Carolina's defense ranks 101st, which is nearly 30 spots behind Stanford. 

I'm a tad worried about Morris' home/road splits, but that sample is comprised of two road games (NC State and Louisville). North Carolina's doormat defense steers me toward Morris this week at a reasonable $7,900 figure. With so many viable quarterback options this week at different price points, Morris might get lost in the tournament shuffle a bit, and this is a great setup for one of his biggest games of the season. 

Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati ($7,400) vs Baylor

I'm not sure what more Sorsby needs to do to be priced among the upper-echelon quarterbacks each week. He is printing points this year. He has one game with fewer than 20 DK points and five games with at least 29.0. Sorsby and the Bearcats are coming off a laugher against Oklahoma State, while Baylor is coming off of a dogfight of a game at TCU that had several weather delays and lasted nearly six hours. 

Now Baylor has to go up to Cincy to face the No.21 team in the country. Baylor's defense checks in with the 83rd defense per FEI and gives up 31.4 points per game. They're worse against the run than they are against the pass, but that's not to say the secondary is locking down the opposition (271 passing yards allowed per game in Big 12 play). 

Sorsby is also a reasonably mobile quarterback, which has been a problem for Baylor. The Bears have allowed 323 QB rushing yards and four touchdowns vs FBS competition. Meanwhile, Sorsby has run for 340 yards and six scores while peeling off 5.9 YPC. 

This is a good game to get exposure to on this slate, and Sorsby is arguably the best per-dollar play from it. 

Haynes King, Georgia Tech ($8,600) vs Syracuse

I probably sound like a broken record on King at this point, with this being the third straight week where I mention him in this piece. Well, the man keeps printing points, so we'll keep going to this well. He has put up at least 27.7 DK points in each ACC game and has racked up at least 100 rushing yards in three of those outings.

The matchup is favorable with Syracuse being undermanned on offense, leading to a lot of short drives and therefore, a lot of quick turnarounds for a defense tasked with stopping King and this GT ground onslaught. There's some blowout potential here and Georgia Tech might want to be careful with King given his history and what's at stake for the Jackets this season, but if GT does pull away, King will have done his part. 

GPP Option: Jackson Arnold, Auburn ($7,800) at Arkansas

This is a tricky one as Auburn should be able to score on Arkansas, but Arnold's struggles have opened the possibility of him ceding snaps to Ashton Daniels or Deuce Knight. Oddly enough, this is as good of a setup that Arnold has had since the opener at Baylor. Arkansas cannot stop the QB run and ranks 123rd in fantasy points allowed to QBs. The rainy conditions also likely favor Auburn taking the air out of the ball. 

You'll likely need to keep refreshing the news during warmups to see how things are looking, but I could see Arnold popping if he retains the starting job. There may be some sub-packages for the other quarterbacks, though.

Others to Consider

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss ($8,800) at Oklahoma: Should have low roster % at this salary considering the matchup. Held his own extremely well in a tough environment last week. 

Running Backs

Tory Blaylock, Oklahoma ($5,800) vs Ole Miss

Oklahoma struggled mightily to find an answer at running back early in the season but may have finally found its answer in the freshman, Blaylock. He's coming off his highest carry count of the season (19) and converted that into 101 yards and a score at South Carolina. 

Quarterback John Mateer still isn't running a ton since returning from surgery on his throwing hand, which funnels more opportunities to the backfield. Blaylock is obviously the hot hand right now and Mississippi is vulnerable against the run, allowing 167 rushing yards per game in conference play. This is a good setup for Blaylock.

Jeremiah Cobb, Auburn ($5,900) at Arkansas

If you rolled your eyes on the Jackson Arnold blurb, please just hear me out here. Auburn is going to be able to run for 200 yards on the Razorbacks on Saturday and Cobb might be have the cleanest path to contribute to that tally. 

In Auburn's first game since Damari Alston's departure, Cobb took 19 carries -- tied for a season-high -- and churned out 111 yards on a tough Missouri defense. The volume should be there again for Cobb, but with much better conditions. No Power 4 team allows more fantasy points to opposing running backs than Arkansas. 

Joe Jackson, Kansas State ($7,000) vs Kansas

Jackson is the last man standing in the K-State backfield it seems, with Dylan Edwards and JB Price both sidelined. Kansas State has shown no hesitation in piling the work on Jackson, giving him 27 carries in its last game against TCU. 

Jackson's efficiency leaves a lot to be desired at just 4.2 YPC with one rushing touchdown on 75 rushes. That said, Kansas' defense hemorrhages rushing yards almost as badly as Arkansas. Big 12 teams are peeling off 6.16 YPC vs the Jayhawks. Even if Jackson's YPC figures look middling now, follow the volume and it should work out against Kansas. 

Quintrevion Wisner, Texas ($6,700) at Mississippi State

I'm buying a Wisner bounce back here after a sub-par showing against Kentucky last weekend when he was held to just 37 yards. Texas' offensive line continues to be an issue, but Wisner remains the lead back and gets a crack at a porous Miss State run defense that allows 5.02 YPC to SEC opponents. 

If you're willing to take a gamble, CJ Baxter ($5,200) is expected to make his return and could push for 10 carries. 

Others to Consider

• Daniel Hill, Alabama ($4,400) at South Carolina
• J'Mari Taylor, Virginia ($6,700) at UNC

Wide Receivers

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 18.5% team target share who also average at least 8.5 yards per target. I also narrowed the sample to the last four weeks to get some of the noisy non-con games out of here. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Cortez Braham, Memphis ($5,800) vs USF

Braham more than checks the boxes in the table above. His 31.1 percent target share over the last four games is second behind only Indiana's Elijah Sarratt. Braham's efficiency is almost as good as Sarratt's too, averaging 10.6 yards per target and nabbing four touchdowns in that sample. 

The 12 targets Braham saw last week will likely stand as an outlier, but his overall share of Memphis' targets will remain strong. I understand the concerns about a dropoff from Brendon Lewis to AJ Hill if Lewis is unable to go. Follow the volume, though. Plus, Braham still ended up with a decent 13.3 DK Point outing last week with five grabs for 83 yards. 

The passing environment should be good for Memphis here, too, as USF allows the second-most passing yards per game (264) on this slate. 

Isaiah Sategna, Oklahoma ($5,600) vs Mississippi

The days of Sategna being a sub-$4k bargain are sadly over. Don't be sad, though, $5,600 is still a deal for Sategna's role. He has double-digit targets in three of his last four games and a 30.5 percent target share in that span. Sategna hasn't been overly explosive in that sample (8.6) but has made up for it with four touchdowns. 

Mississippi's defense literally did not get a stop last weekend against Georgia, and while OU's offense is a far cry from that of the Dawgs', this is a good setup for the Sooners at home against a vulnerable Rebel D. OU is expected to push for 30 points in this spot and Sategna has a very strong claim to most of the Sooners' passing production. 

Elijah Sarratt ($7,600) and Omar Cooper ($6,900) Indiana vs UCLA

UCLA has absolutely been on the upswing since making the coaching change, winning three straight Big Ten games. I even think the Bruins could cover this huge (24.5) number. That said, Indiana is going to be printing points on Saturday, and these salaries are palatble if you want to pursue a Hoosier passing stack.

Sarratt has simply been one of the best receivers in college football, and it unfortunately somewhat obscures Cooper's efforts. His target share over the last month is 30%, just four percentage points behind Sarratt. He's also caught almost every target (78%) at 9.6 YPT with three touchdowns in that sample.

UCLA has a solid secondary, though I doubt it holds up on the road against a Hoosier attack that's humming like this.

Germie Bernard ($6,600) and Isaiah Horton ($4,600), Alabama at South Carolina

South Carolina could be in for a long afternoon Saturday, given how it's playing of late, and how Alabama has been rolling. This Alabama passing game is elite and the weaponry is deep. Bernard has become the lead dog in terms of target share with 26 in his last four outings, converting that into 18 grabs for 197 yards and two scores. He's got the best floor of this Alabama receiving groups.

Horton, meanwhile, should be back on the target upswing with Lotzeir Brooks considered doubtful to play. He has touchdowns in five of his last six games. Brooks had been nibbling away at Horton's targets the last two weeks with six in each while Horton amassed five total opportunities in that span. This is a good bounce-back spot for the Miami transfer.

Others to Consider

• Parker Kingston ($5,200) and Chase Roberts ($5,100) BYU at Iowa State
• Michael Trigg, Baylor ($6,100) at Cincinnati
• Joe Royer, Cincinnati ($3,500) vs Baylor