College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 7

Chris' Picks

Just when I thought I had things turned around and figured out, Week 6 happens. I'm just moving on from last week without further comment.

Mississippi State -6.5 at Tennessee

Maybe this is a trap, but it's one I'm willing to fall into until proven otherwise. Tennessee is the only Power 5 team without an FBS win, and only one of its four losses came by less than a touchdown. Their two SEC defeats have been by a combined 77-17 total. There's some questions at quarterback for MSU, while the Vols may have a little offensive momentum from raw QB Brian Maurer, but what's not in question is the best player on the field in RB Kylin Hill. Facing Tennessee's 85th-ranked run defense, Hill will feast and carry them to victory.

Army -5 at Western Kentucky

I'm simply not buying what WKU is putting out there now. In their three wins, the Hilltoppers scored 20 points each time and held opponents to 30 total points. Those opponents, Old Dominion, UAB and FIU, rank 125th, 77th and 86th in scoring offense and 115th, 86th and 46th in rushing offense, respectively. Army averages 30.2 ppg, ranks eighth in rushing offense and will keep an already limited WKU offense off the scoreboard with ease thanks to time of possession. I had this as a 10-13 point spread prior to Army's loss last week to Tulane, so we can hopefully take advantage of the spread decrease.

Wake Forest -6.5 vs. Louisville

This line opened at 9, and has promptly fallen, and I want to pounce. Louisville is 0-2 OTS in conference and seems to be getting credit for beating Boston College last week, a game they allowed 39 points in, won by two, while facing a backup quarterback for most of the game and allowing 563 total yards. Wake ranks 30th in scoring, 40th in rushing and 14th in passing offense. The Demon Deacons are going to go up and down the field, and it will force the Cardinals' run-first offense out of its comfort zone. Make no mistake, Wake's defense isn't great. But it will outscore Louisville, which seems primed for a letdown.

Iowa +3.5 vs. Penn State

Consider me thoroughly unimpressed with a Penn State side that labored to beat Pitt, its best win, and jumped to a 28-0 lead last week over injury-depleted Purdue in the first 16 minutes, only to win 35-7. Iowa had a shot at Michigan last week despite four turnovers, entering the game with just one giveaway in its previous four. The Hawkeyes won't make those mistakes again, and the defense is legit. Getting points at home, at night, seems generous.

UAB -12 at UTSA

I don't love that this opened at -8.5, but the Blazers are going to be bowl eligible simply by feasting on bottom dwellers. They've beaten Akron, South Alabama and Rice by a combined 58 points. UTSA is 2-3 yet averages a 14.3-point defeat thanks to mistakes, bringing a minus-7 turnover margin into this game. The Blazers' defense should have little trouble as it allows only 183.4 yards per game through the air and 90.6 yards per game on the ground. The absence of RB Spencer Brown isn't ideal, but it should enable the Blazers to trim their running back rotation, where sophomore Lucious Stanley shined last week. UAB won't need a lot of points to cover.

Parting thoughts for Week 7:  I don't understand Miami (-2.5) is favored vs. No. 20 Virginia. It seems like an enticement to bet UVA. Similarly, Florida (+13) is begging you to take it, so I side with LSU.

Last week: 1-4; Season: 15-16-1

GREG'S PICKS

After a rough stretch, I nearly righted the ship last week. I say nearly, because I had neither a winning nor a losing, I came in at 2-2-1. Once again, the wins came fairly easy and losses weren't all that close. The tie, well, the tie looked awfully good at the end of the first quarter as Penn State opened up with a 21-0 lead, but mistake after mistake after mistake led to a backdoor tie with a late TD. Penn State was not focused and it showed over the final three quarters. The wins were Kansas and California, both of which were big dogs and while Cal had it covered the whole way, Kansas lost its grip temporarily on the cover, only to come back and score immediately and secure the win. Kansas State was simply never in the game, and it's clear that Baylor is in fact improved and I misjudged how good Auburn and its freshmen QB were.  

Indiana (-27.5) vs Rutgers

I took a chance on Rutgers new QB Johnny Langan in DFS last week because he was half the price of every other starting QB, which put me in the precarious spot of having to watch Rutgers play Maryland — and what I saw scared me to death. OK, that's a bit of an exaggeration, but it's not hyperbole to say that Rutgers might be the worst team the Big Ten has produced in the last decade. While Langan provided some DFS value, because he can run a bit, he simply has nothing in the way of throwing the ball. Indiana has played well every week of this season, save the one game against Ohio State, but's that's understandable. As long as the Hoosiers are focused, they will cruise in this spot.    

Under (49.5) Minnesota vs Nebraska 

If you are going to get in on this one, you might want to act fast as the weather forecast is only getting worse. The temperature is supposed to be in the mid-30s with a rain/snow mix and a 20 mph wind. Not exactly the conditions in which a high-powered passing attacked can thrive. Minnesota has shifted from a running team to a passing team this season, but the Gophers will have a tough time getting any rhythm if this forecast holds. On the other side, the Cornhuskers have shown no firepower this season on offense and might be without QB Adrian Martinez and JD Spielman.         

LSU (-13) vs Florida 

I mentioned that I overestimated Auburn last week, which is why I lost that game against Florida, and perhaps I'm continuing to underestimate Florida, but I still need to see more. In my mind, though, these teams are not closely ranked. LSU is elite and Florida is in a class below. I could be putting too much stock into what my eyes are telling me, but it looks like LSU is simply unstoppable on offense, and although the Gators have a good defense, they haven't seen anything like what they'll see in Baton Rouge. Throw in the environment, which is always tough to play in, especially at night, and you have the making of a game that will simply get out of hand.

Clemson (-26.5) vs Florida State

This is just a tough break for the Seminoles. Clemson is coming off its worst effort of the season and the Tigers have had two weeks to think about what went wrong. The Tigers have also had two weeks to listen to everyone say that they're no longer the best team in the country and maybe don't even belong in the playoff. The horror! Well, the horror is going to be watching FSU's defense try to contain the Tigers offense. The Seminoles have surrendered nearly 30 points per game this season and haven't really played a high-powered offense yet. FSU has picked up a couple nice wins at home the last couple weeks, but this is a huge step up in class, and they won't be ready to keep pace.     

Iowa (+3.5) vs Penn State 

Penn State has been pretty impressive this season, but its schedule has been on the light side. The only test came at Pittsburgh, and the Nittany Lions barely passed that one. Iowa is coming off a respectable effort at Michigan last week and just like in that game, the Hawkeyes will muck up this game. I see this game playing out in one of two ways. The first is Penn State struggles to get any rhythm on offense and neither does Iowa and it comes down to a FG. The second is Iowa ambushes Penn State, much like it did Ohio State last season, and cruises to a win. 

Last Week: 2-2-1, Season: 13-16-2