College Capper: Best Bets Week 8

Chris' Picks

Not a sterling week last week, but progress with three comfortable wins and two narrow misses. It's either the start of something, or we're about to come crashing back down. Fingers crossed! I'm ACC heavy this week, which is my territory. Further having me nervous thinking I know what's going to happen!

Virginia (-7)   vs. Georgia Tech

The Jackets seem a bit Jekyll and Hyde, but as the conference season progresses, I'm expecting more regression than progression, as they just aren't ready to compete in the mid-to-upper tier of the ACC. Their pass defense has been shredded in the last three games, allowing 306 yards to UNC, 399 to Pitt, and 292 to Duke. That last number is particularly alarming as they travel to Charlottesville this Saturday. UVA boasts the nation's second-best passing attack that's averaging 405.9 yards per game and a 19:6 TD:INT ratio. The rushing attack isn't putrid, averaging 4.07 ypc while scoring 12 times. They're riding high too, having won and covered in three straight, sitting two games behind Pitt in the loss column in the Coastal. With two non-conference games up next before facing the Panthers, they can't afford to look ahead.

Clemson (+3.5) at Pittsburgh

Let's take a second to value what Clemson does well; play defense. They rank 2nd in points allowed (12.5 ppg), 27th in run defense (113.0 ypg, 3.1 ypc, 2 TDs) and 32nd against the pass (201.7 ypg, 5.7 ypa). And they haven't been at full health for the bulk of the year, something that seems to be improving. I'll give credit where credit is due, and I'm thoroughly impressed with Pitt QB Kenny Pickett, who for years looked like nothing more than a game manager. What I'm not impressed with is the Panthers' strength of schedule. Virginia Tech is the only scoring defense ranked higher than 53rd. I have zero faith in OC Mark Whipple to be creative here and score against the Tigers. Yes, we all know Clemson's offense has been dreadful at best, and Pitt is salty against the run and can rush the passer. Clemson is 0-5 ATS, but it's been double-digit favorites in five spots. Here's to hoping this is an overcorrection.

North Carolina State (-3) at Miami

This line just makes no sense. Miami has lost six straight games to Power 5 opponents, are just 1-5 ATS on the year, and continue to find ways to lose, missing a 30-yard field goal two weeks ago and then throwing an interception inside the five-yard last Saturday. Loyal readers know they are my team, and as a homer, I'm more harsh on them than elsewhere. But they are the worst tackling team I've ever seen, never wrapping runners up while preferring to shoulder them down. That doesn't seem like a great idea against a RB named Bam. I've been shocked that they haven't quit when down the past two weeks, but at some point, that resolve will be gone, because this program has shown that time and time again over the last decade.

Oklahoma State (+7) at Iowa State

Maybe the Pokes are due for a letdown after winning and covering over ranked Texas and Baylor. Or maybe they're a good football team. I just don't find there to be much separating these teams. The emergence of Jaylen Warren has made it a push between running backs opposite Breece Hall. Neither side's quarterback has been lighting things up, and both defenses are sound against the run and the pass. This just has the looks of a low-scoring, ugly type game. And getting a touchdown, even on the road, is my preference. 

Western Kentucky (-14.5) at Florida International

The Hilltoppers are just 2-4 SU, but have faced a gauntlet that includes Army, Indiana, Michigan State and a surprising UTSA. But they've gone 4-2 ATS thanks to a ludicrously fast-paced, pass-happy offense that leads the nation, averaging 447.7 ypg and a sterling 27:4 TD:INT ratio, ranking ninth in scoring at 40.8 ppg as a result. Pair that with that schedule mentioned above, and it's a bit more impressive. FIU meanwhile is 0-5 against FBS opponents, going 1-4 ATS, including 1-2 as a double-digit dog. Pair that with the nation's 123rd ranked pass defense, and WKU is going to race to a win here. Their style will allow opponents to score, but the Panthers won't keep pace for four quarters.

Last week: 3-2; Season 19-20

GREG'S PICKS 

Last week was full of easy wins and bad losses, but all that matters is I finally got above .500. Perhaps this is the turning point in the season? We'll see. I've definitely felt better about my picks lately and that's generally a good sign. It also helps when you start to see trends develop over the season.  

Let's start with the losses from this past week, they weren't good. Missouri was not competitive against Texas A&M and the Duke over was not close, but in my defense, Virginia scored more than enough to get over the total, but once again the Duke offense failed to show up, proving the theory that fast doesn't always equal good. Duke plays at nearly the fastest pace in the NCAA, but they're terrible. They must have the most inefficient offense in all of the land. The wins, Syracuse covered easily at Clemson, Cincinnati destroyed UCF and Kentucky got inside the number with a late score, but it wasn't a true back door as the Cats were within the number most of the game.  

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

UNLV (+4) vs San Jose St.

I hate taking bad teams unless I'm getting a lot of points, so I'm very uneasy in this spot, but I think it's the correct play. The Rebels, as bad as they've been this season are playing hard. Since getting blown out at home by Iowa State, UNLV has lost by eight, seven and four points respectively. They're getting close and now they get a middling San Jose State team that's coming in off a double OT heartbreaker against San Diego State. Not only are they tired, but they lost a great chance at a big upset. San Jose State will not be in the right frame of mind to cover the number here and UNLV will take advantage.              
 

Navy (+28) vs Cincinnati 

It's like I'm trying to make myself uncomfortable. Again, going with a bad team here and in this case, they are facing a really good team in Cincinnati. The reason? Cincy has been on a roll since the start of the season and they haven't really had even a hiccup to this point. I think you know where this is going. This looks like a perfect spot for a letdown. Navy's style will likely play into that script as well. I'm expecting Cincy to be off just enough to stay inside this number.       

Oklahoma (-39) at Kansas

If Spencer Rattler were still the starting QB for the Sooners I wouldn't come near this game, but since the Sooners have hit their stride with a new starting QB, this looks like a good play. Oklahoma is starting to look like a top-5 team in the nation, instead of the fraud it appeared to be earlier in the year. Now it's time to take care of business against a terrible Kansas team. I could go on and on about Kansas, but I'll simply say this – they are a mess. The only way Oklahoma fails to cover is it the Sooners come out sloppy and I'm not expecting that.     

Over (54.5) Maryland at Minnesota

Maryland is quickly becoming a great over play each week thanks to its non-existent defense and its high-powered offense. Throw in the occasional turnover and you have a recipe for a lot of points. Minnesota is not a great over team, but the Gophers are capable of moving the ball against a weaker defense. The Gopher defense is good against the run, but not so much against the pass, which plays right into the Terrapins' hands as they move primarily through the air on offense.

Over (63) Georgia Tech at Virginia

Let's try this again. I missed on the over in the Virginia game this past week, but that was no fault of the Cavaliers. Virginia did everything it could on offense to push the number over the total, but the opposition was no help. That shouldn't be the case this week as Georgia Tech has found itself in some high-scoring games already this season. There's no reason to think Virginia will slow down this week and unlike this past week, the Cavalier defense will surrender enough points to push this number over the total.  

 
Last Week: 3-2-0, Last Season: 16-20-0