College Capper: Best Bets Week 7

Chris' Picks

Week 6 was more of the same, mediocre at best. I've managed to stay away from some "too obvious" lines, but it's not leading to success. Maybe I should just write up the other side and say it looks like a trap? UNC fits that mold this week for me, (-13.5) at FSU, a number that's risen four points already since opening. Texas A&M, to a lesser degree, fits this mold as well. And I really want to lean on Georgia's defense with a six-point cushion, but not sure I trust Stetson Bennett on the road.

Pittsburgh (+10.5) at Miami

Boston College and North Carolina State have provided the blueprint for beating Pittsburgh; throw deep often and expose the Panthers' secondary, which has allowed 694 yards and seven scores in those losses. The problem is, Miami hasn't created separation out wide, with only 11 passing plays of 20+ yards. I'm happy to put a reverse jinx on my 'Canes and take an L here, but Miami also has a recent history of carrying losses over multiple weeks. I expect the game plan to put Miami in a position to be successful, I'm just not sure they'll execute consistently enough to route the Panthers.

North Carolina State (-4.5) vs. Duke

Back to weekly picking on the Blue Devils. But this is mostly about a low number for a confident, seemingly surging Wolfpack side. Devin Leary has been more than a stabilizing force at quarterback, tossing seven TDs in three starts, leading N.C. State to 34.3 ppg. Duke is coming off of a spirited effort, and while the in-state rivalry will keep them from fully avoiding a letdown, I just don't think they can score, or keep NCST from scoring, enough here.

Liberty (-3.5) at Syracuse

The Orange made me look silly last week, and I'm hoping they don't do so again here with a better showing. But it's hard to imagine that happening, as Syracuse is running out of bodies. They lost QB Tommy DeVito and safety Andre Cisco for the year last week and proceeded to allow a Duke offense previously averaging 101.0 ypg on the ground to gain 363 yards against them. Liberty ranks seventh nationally in rushing, putting up 250.8 ypg and 5.5 ypc. Auburn transfer QB Malik Willis gives them a big fish, and the Flames offense will churn out yardage and points, keeping the 'Cuse D on the field far too long.

South Carolina (+3) vs. Auburn

Really want this to get to (+3.5), but I'm not sure that will happen. South Carolina has been competitive against Florida and Tennessee before dismantling Vanderbilt last week, while Auburn has been crushed by Georgia and should have lost to Arkansas last week. Maybe I'm taking the lesser of two evils here, as I certainly don't trust Will Muschamp, but what have Auburn, and QB Bo Nix done to deserve to be favored on the road?

Notre Dame (-16.5) vs. Louisville

The shine is officially off of the Cardinals after they snuck up on many last season, having now dropped three in a row, allowing 46 or more in two of those defeats. A more balanced Georgia Tech side got them for 5.7 ypc and four rushing scores last week, and that seems like bad news with the Irish's dominant rushing attack up in Week 7. Notre Dame is averaging 6.3 ypc and four scores on the ground through three games. This will be the best offense the Irish have faced, but their defense has been stout, allowing 13.0 ppg and just four total touchdowns. I feel comfortable in the Irish eclipsing the 40 point threshold, which should give some wiggle room defensively and still provide a cover.

Last week: 2-3, Season: 11-16-2

GREG'S PICKS

Another 3-2 week last week, which, as we went over previously, is acceptable, even if a bit frustrating, but not all 3-2 weeks are created equal. While the previous week I was a bit unfortunate to end up 3-2, this past week, it felt good to get on the right side of .500. Perhaps that's because one of my wins, the Texas over, was a result of a miracle comeback, followed by some good fortune in overtime. The other two wins came fairly easy as Kansas State was within the number the entire game and won outright as a big underdog and the East Carolina over hit with relative ease. The losses weren't bad, but Tulane was up for quite a while before collapsing in the 2nd half and Texas Tech was within range of covering for most of the game but couldn't get over the hump.  

Over (64.5) Tulane vs SMU

Only a bizarre low-scoring second half against Memphis is keeping this total in a nice spot. That low-scoring half came two weeks ago when SMU faced Memphis and the two teams put up 44 points in the 1st half before shutting it down in the second half and scoring just 13 points combined. SMU is going to be involved in a lot of high-scoring affairs this season and this week will be no exception. This match-up works perfectly because Tulane's weakness on defense is its pass defense and that's where SMU excels. SMU's struggles to stop the run and wouldn't you know it, Tulane's offense is centered on its ground game.             

West Virginia (-22.5) vs Kansas

 I'm not going to blindly fade Kansas every week, but I will need a good reason not to each week and I can't find one right now. Kansas is off to a terrible start this season and it's not about to get any better as the Jayhawks face an improving West Virginia team. West Virginia's only loss on the season came at Oklahoma State and as we've all witnessed, OSU is a very sound team. The Mountaineers have faced subpar competition just once this season and they routed an outmatched Eastern Kentucky 56-10. Kansas meanwhile has dropped its two conference games by a combined 73 points.             

Tennessee (-6) vs Kentucky 

Two middle of the pack SEC teams here that are both fighting to join the upper tier of the league, but both continue to find ways to fall back into mediocrity. Kentucky has had a slight edge over the past couple of years, having been ranked for much of that time, but Tennessee looks ready to pass by the Wildcats. Tennessee was impressive through its first two and a half games, but the bottom fell out in the 2nd-half this past week against Georgia. It was tough to watch, but let's be real here, it was Georgia. Tennessee is still well equipped to handle the non-elite SEC teams. Kentucky is coming off a thrashing of Mississippi State and might be a little too high on itself entering this week as I don't think MSU has much to offer this season.          

Over (56) Georgia at Alabama

I thought about taking Georgia in this spot and even though I'm not making them an official pick, I would highly recommend giving them a look if only because Alabama seems incapable of slowing down the Bulldog offense this week and if any team in the country is capable of slowing the 'Tide offense, it might be Georgia. The more I think about it though, I don't think anyone is slowing that offense, so if Georgia is to cover, it'll have to put up a lot of points and that's exactly when I'm expecting.      

Over (71.5) North Texas at Middle Tennessee

This has all the makings of one of those random Saturday afternoon games that you see scroll across the ticker and wonder how two teams could combine for 100 points. Okay, so 100 is not likely, but we are talking about a team in North Texas that surrenders over almost 600 yards per game, but to be fair, they put up 550 yards on offense per game. The lowest-scoring game that it's been a part of this season was a 72-point affair against Southern Mississippi. Middle Tennessee State isn't exactly a high scoring squad, but it is allowing over 35 points per game this season. Look for North Texas to have its way on offense and struggle once again on defense.         

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 12-14-0