College Capper: Best Bets Week 11

Chris' Picks

Somehow, someway, another winning week was turned in by yours truly last week. And to be honest, I at least should have had a shot at an even better card. Once word of Phil Jurkovec's return broke, I was an immediate ML play on Boston College. Virginia Tech would never have been considered. Florida, meanwhile, looks like it has quit. But even if they haven't, no way I'd have taken nearly three touchdowns on a team that was crushed by the flu. Such is life with deadlines. There are a lot of teams I played on or against last week where I'm tempted to flirt with again. Temple absolutely stinks, so I will be using my personal funds to bet Houston (-24.5). Duke also absolutely stinks, as does VT, so over 50.5 looks very nice. And I like Wyoming's defense again as well to keep it inside of two scores against Boise. I know this is a business of picking winners, but also want to make y'all think and offer some different thoughts.

As such, this week's card isn't for the faint of heart. I'm either a genius (I'm not), or I'm just asking for some humble pie (I hope not). Small schools, underdogs…what could go wrong!

Georgia State (+10.5)  at Coastal Carolina

The Chanticleers played it incredibly close to the vest last week without QB Grayson McCall, throwing 20 times for just 85 yards while rushing 41 times. They coasted to a win by putting up just 21 points offensively. Georgia State, meanwhile, has been competitive weekly, relying on a defense that's allowing just 3.92 yards per carry and no more than 21 points in any of their last four games. While 4-5 SU, they sit at 6-3 ATS. I expect Coastal will be a bit more adventurous offensively, but not too much so. No upset is looming, but an overall low-scoring affair can keep it inside of two touchdowns.

UNC Charlotte (+6.5)  at Louisiana Tech

The Bulldogs have beaten North Texas. That's it amongst their FBS schedule. They've been competitive in games they get up for (Mississippi State, North Carolina State and SMU) losing by a combined 10 points, but blown out by UAB and UTSA. Charlotte's wins aren't impressive either (Duke, Gardner Webb, MTSU, FIU and Rice) but they have five of them. They are flirting with bowl eligibility, but to be frank, I just don't understand what La Tech has done to be a favorite, let alone by a touchdown.

Troy (+7)  vs. Louisiana

This number looks to be dropping, so if you like it, don't hesitate. Louisiana simply hasn't played up to its preseason expectations. Just when they look to be clicking in crushing Appalachian State, they labor against lowly Arkansas State and narrowly beat Georgia State, leaving them at 3-5 ATS. Further, they are 6-0 in conference with their closest competition at 2-3, and they've got a non-conference showdown against Liberty next on the docket. Troy hasn't been competitive in their losses, sit only a game out of first in their division and have a showdown with Appy State next. They'll bring their best and hopefully upset a disinterested Cajun side in the process.

South Carolina (-1) at Missouri

This has nothing to do with the Gamecocks' showing against Florida last week. Well, maybe a tiny bit if they've actually found some creative play calling and a passing game. But we only need that to keep the Tigers somewhat honest defensively. This is a defense we want to target every single week, and getting them at this season-low number is hopefully a gift. Missouri is 4-5 SU, but 1-7 ATS. Their run defense is beyond porous, having allowed at least 258 yards on the ground to all teams except Georgia last week, where they sold out against the run, stuffed it early, allowed vertical passing plays and still gave up 5.1 yards per carry. The Gamecocks churned out two 100-yard rushers last week, and a repeat wouldn't surprise. If they control clock, they should come home with bowl eligibility.

Arkansas (-2.5)  at LSU

So many signs say don't do this. It's a night game in Baton Rouge. Arkansas hasn't won in Death Valley since 2015, just twice since 2007 and just five times overall in that span. And now LSU is thinking about moving from Max Johnson to Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback, creating ambiguity and a potential spark.  But I think LSU sold out to beat Alabama last week and are simply done for the rest of the campaign. The defense isn't nearly as good as they showed last Saturday, and Arkansas has proven they can score. If they can get a couple of scores early, this could get out of hand.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 29-25

GREG'S PICKS

Rather than lament another 2-3 outcome this past week, I'm going to take a moment to opine on two issues that are sticking in my craw. First, the angst over Michigan being rated ahead of MSU. I get it, MSU hammered Michigan just two weeks ago, the 4-point win…at home, left no doubt who the better team was. Head-to-head is not the be-all-end-all. Sneak out a win at home and this is what happens, the ease with which you win matters. Put those two teams up on a neutral field and I'm taking Michigan. That's how rankings work, it's the body of work, not one game. That's called a playoff.

Second, Cincinnati is undefeated and ranked outside the top-4. Guess what? The Bearcats have had every chance to impress the committee over the past few weeks and they've looked TERRIBLE. Yes, all caps. Play better against terrible competition and you might crack the top-4.

Whew! I feel better. As for this past week, easy winner on the Wake over and a not-so-easy winner on Pittsburgh. Bad loss on the aforementioned "top-4" team Cincinnati as well as a comfortable loss on the Ole Miss over. The Kentucky loss stung a bit because the 'Cats could have pulled that one out.     

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

Over (73) North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Did you see what Wake Forest did to the Tar Heel defense this past week? Now let's see what Kenny Pickett can do. As much success as the Pittsburgh offense should have against North Carolina this week, it's the defense that worries me, so I'm not laying the points, I'm just going to take the over. Pittsburgh's offense can't be stopped right now and its defense just surrendered 29 points to what might be the least efficient offense in all of the country – Duke. I'd prefer if North Carolina passed more often and the 'Heels might have to this week as Pitt has a decent run defense.     

Iowa (-5.5) vs. Minnesota 

Maybe it's because I live in Minnesota and I've watched the Gophers play quite a bit this year, but this line seems way out of whack. Then again, it's not like Iowa has much of an offense, so how many points can it score? The issue here is that Minnesota has little to offer on the offensive side of the ball. Early in the year, when the Gophers had their best running backs, they could move the ball on the ground and occasionally through the air. Now they can do neither. Tanner Morgan has regressed more than any QB that I've seen in college football and I fully expect him to make a couple of huge errors that will turn this game into a blowout.         

Purdue (+20.5) at Ohio State

Before this line came out, I was set on taking Ohio State because nobody in this conference seems capable of sustaining momentum, so after its big win this past week against MSU, Purdue has to fall apart this week, right? Maybe, but I'm still not sold on Ohio State, especially its pass defense and Purdue can take advantage of that. I fully expect Ohio State to win this game and I doubt Purdue ever really threatens, but I think the Boilermakers stay inside a couple scores most of the game and stay inside the number.      

Michigan State (-13) vs Maryland

The Michigan State of the past few years would likely lose this game as those Spartans had a tendency to spiral out of control when things went bad, but this feels like a different team. Sure, they lost this past week in a spot where they were supposed to win, but if they have truly changed, they'll not only win this game but win with ease. Maryland has played well below expectations this season and there's no reason to think that's turning around anytime soon. Expect MSU to right the ship this week.   

Texas (-30.5) vs Kansas

After a 4-1 start, the Longhorns have now dropped four in a row. Surprisingly, it's been the offense that's been mostly to blame as they've scored just 55 points in their past three games. That should be an issue this week though as Kansas brings in one of the worst defenses in the nation this week. The Jayhawks are exactly what the Longhorns need after four tough losses in a row. The Jayhawks surrender 250 yards per game on the ground and they are about to face one of the best RBs in the nation in Bijan Robinson. This is what we call a feel-good game the Longhorns.     

Last Week: 2-3-0, Last Season: 21-30-0