College Football Best Bets: Michigan vs Michigan State
As somebody born and raised in Michigan, the battle between the Wolverines and the Spartans on the gridiron has always been a notable event. Everybody in the state knows people who root for both football teams, though I went to college in Detroit and don't have a rooting interest either way. This is always a big game for both programs, and both would consider it an important one to win. It's just that neither program is at its peak right now, though one is certainly in a better place than the other. That is to say, if the Spartans lose this one badly at home, they may join the ranks of the teams looking to get a jump start on the search for a head coach.
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Michigan vs Michigan State Betting Odds
Spread: Michigan -14 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Michigan State +14.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 47.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 48.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Michigan -575 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Michigan State +460 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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The Wolverines are on the road against their second-biggest rival, and they are favored by two touchdowns. I find myself leaning toward a vote of no confidence in the Spartans. That is a feeling vis-à-vis Michigan State I can understand with how this season has gone. However, will Michigan really go to East Lansing in primetime and comfortably beat the home team?
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Michigan vs Michigan State Betting Picks
This hasn't been a great season for Michigan. After the comfortable loss at USC, there were a few murmurings that a loss to Washington would put Sherrone Moore firmly on the hot seat. The Wolverines won 24-7 at home, so those murmurs have been quieted. Michigan is 5-2 with losses to USC and Oklahoma. Still, that's happened with a true freshman quarterback in Bryce Underwood! Expectations shouldn't be too high for the Wolverines, but they should be expected to beat the Spartans.
Michigan State started the season 3-0, but has since lost four in a row. That includes two 38-13 losses in a row. Sure, losing by 25 to Indiana isn't unreasonable, but it also lost to UCLA. The Spartans lost to Nebraska, a team Michigan beat. Michigan State's best win is, what, 23-6 over Western Michigan?
The Wolverines are 21st in SP+, which is surprisingly good, but they are bolstered by a defense that ranks ninth. On the other hand, the Spartans rank 74th, which does track. The Jonathan Smith era hasn't been going great, though Aidan Chiles has been better this year!
Justice Haynes' health will play a role in just how confident I am. He missed the Washington game with an undisclosed injury. Of course, Jordan Marshall stepped up and ran for 133 yards and a touchdown with Haynes out, but it's easier to envision a breezy win with both members of that one-two punch available. The Spartans have allowed a mediocre 131.3 rushing yards per game. As long as Underwood is comfortable playing on the road in primetime this time around, I think the Wolverines will score a decisive win.
Michigan vs Michigan State Best Bet: Michigan -14 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Predictions
The Wolverines will try to win with defense and the run game. That's smart when you have a defense that is quite good, your running game is also quite good, and your quarterback is promising for the future but playing in the present. The less Michigan puts on Underwood, the better off it is. I don't know what Michigan State's path to a win is. Chiles throwing the ball to Nick Marsh and Michigan settling for field goals, maybe? Michigan has only really put it on Central Michigan, and I don't think it wins in a blowout on the road, but in terms of winning by more than two touchdowns or fewer than two touchdowns, I think Michigan's ability to likely hold Michigan State in check will go a long way.
Michigan 27, Michigan State 10
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Michigan vs Michigan State Player Prop Picks for Saturday, October 25
Jordan Marshall, Michigan – Anytime touchdown (FanDuel)
If Haynes isn't able to play, this looks great for Marshall. If Haynes is able to play but is eased back into the lineup and has a lighter load than usual, it looks really good for Marshall. And if Haynes is completely good to go, well, it still looks pretty good! Marshall has still managed to score three times in games where Haynes has played. Michigan State has given up 32.7 points per game, the highest in the Big 10. There's room for multiple Wolverines to score rushing TDs.
Omari Kelly, Michigan State – Under 49.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)
Kelly was never able to find his footing at Auburn, but he went down to Middle Tennessee State last season and beat up on Conference USA defenses to rack up 869 yards in 10 games. When he played Duke, he had four catches for 12 yards, and against Ole Miss, he had one catch on seven targets for minus-1 yard, but man, did he have fun against Western Kentucky! Now, Kelly did have 133 yards against USC this season, and he even got to 59 yards against Indiana. Indiana is a tougher defense than Michigan, but UCLA and Nebraska kept Kelly in check, and even Boston College held him to 60 yards.
