College Football Picks: Alabama vs. Georgia Best Bets
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The Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Athens, GA, Saturday night, to take on its conference rival, the Georgia Bulldogs. Alabama enters on a two-game winning streak after dropping its opener against Florida State, while Georgia enters off an overtime victory two weeks ago at Tennessee, a win which pushed the Bulldogs to 3-0 on the season. This will be Alabama's first conference game of the season and Georgia's second conference game.
Alabama vs. Georgia Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Georgia -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Alabama +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 53 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 54.5 (ESPN Bet)
Money line: Georgia -135 (ESPN Bet), Alabama +130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This line opened at -4 in Georgia's favor and has slowly crept down in places, including under the magic number of 3 at FanDuel. The total has remained steady at 52.5 since it opened and doesn't appear to be moving any time soon.
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Alabama vs. Georgia Betting Picks for Week 5
As mentioned earlier, Alabama enters on a two-game winning streak after losing its opener to FSU, but those two wins haven't proved much. Sure, the 'Tide looked really good in demolishing Wisconsin two weeks ago, but that same Badger team was just rolled at home by Maryland, so what exactly do we know about Alabama at this point?
The numbers and the eye test tell us that they can throw the ball. Alabama enters this week as the 9th-ranked team in the country with 335 passing yards per game. Their new QB, Ty Simpson, appears to be more than capable of leading a solid offense, and of course, they've got a major talent at WR in Ryan Williams. The ground game, however, has been largely absent this season, which is a bit odd when you consider that they've spent much of the past two weeks in the lead, a position from which teams normally have success running the ball.
Defensively, the 'Tide has been strong against the pass, but just middle of the pack against the run. Against the one competent team they've faced this season, FSU, they allowed nearly five yards per carry. Now some of that was due to facing a mobile QB, but the traditional RBs did a lot of work in that game as well.
Speaking of mobile QBs, Georgia appears to have one in Gunner Stockton, who has run for 124 yards this season (41 yards per game), and keep in mind that college rules include sacks as negative yards. Georgia ranks 30th in rushing yards per game at just over 200, which could be a problem for Alabama this week.
The Bulldogs aren't all ground and pound, however, as they rank 41st in yards per game through the air. This is a typical Georgia team that can beat you in several ways on offense. The defense, however, has had some issues defending the pass. The Bulldogs were torched several times in the Tennessee game, and they'll have to get that figured out if they are to have success against a potentially explosive passing team in Alabama.
I'm going to be honest, I'm a little surprised this line is sitting around a field goal. In my opinion, Georgia is the stronger team, and it has several advantages this week. For starters, this game is in Athens, which is a huge advantage against a team still working on its new QB. The run game is another significant advantage, as Alabama has struggled against teams with much weaker rushing attacks than Georgia. Finally, while Georgia had some major missteps defending the long ball two weeks ago at Tennessee, it was two weeks ago, and you can be sure that they've worked tirelessly to fix that issue. If the Bulldogs can take away the big play this week, they should have no problem covering this number.
Alabama vs. Georgia Expert Pick: Georgia -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs. Georgia Predictions for Week 5
You probably have a good idea of how I see this game playing out, but I'll walk through it in detail here.
Georgia is going to establish the run game early, both with its RBs and with Stockton. That will open up the pass game, which will lead to some big plays. I see this as a game where there aren't many lulls on offense for Georgia; the Bulldogs should be scoring early and often.
On the other side of the ball, you can bet that the 'Tide is going to test the secondary of Georgia, to see if they've corrected the issues from two weeks ago. I do think that Alabama will have some success through the air, but eventually the one-dimensional attack will be its undoing, as the Bulldogs will start to get to Simpson.
I see a comfortable win here from Georgia, with the potential for a blowout.
Georgia 34 - Alabama 20
