College Football 2025-26 Bowl Game Confidence Pool Picks

Bowl Season Confidence Pool Picks and Strategy for 2025-26

Bowl Season is upon us, and I feel like a used car salesman telling you to get it while it lasts, because who knows how long we'll keep bowl season in its current form, with more teams opting out following coaching changes (Iowa State and Iowa State) and for other reasons in the case of Notre Dame -- if you haven't heard, the missed the College Football Playoff. I'm assuming most of you have. 

On top of coaching changes, we have player opt-outs, whether it be via the transfer portal or declaring for the NFL Draft. Thankfully, the transfer portal window was moved back to January 2, which should allow more players to play in bowls with their respective teams before entering the portal.

Anyway, here's a list I was able to compile (I'm sure it's not fully complete, thanks AI) of teams that played under interim coaches during bowl games last season and how they fared.

Based on this, we see teams finished out the bowl season with a 3-5 mark. So, not too damning, but not great either. Just something to keep in mind.

College Football Bowl Pick Pool Tools

• College Football Odds
• SP+ Rating Differentials
• Bowl Game Staff Picks 
  • RotoWire writers made picks against the spread. May not be as helpful in a straight-up pick situation, but it could help you with decisions on some coin-flip games.
• College Football Picks 
  • We will post several game-specific betting articles throughout the bowl season, breaking games down, which can be helpful if allowed to swap until kick. These are typically published around four hours before the opening kickoffs

College Football Bowl Pool Confidence Picks

(39) Oregon (-21.5) vs. James Madison

While I'll take James Madison here against the spread, because I think they're a better team than the spread suggests with a solid defense, the Ducks should be better and healthier for the bowl game, especially in the wide receiver room. Dakorien Moore has been sidelined by injury down the stretch, and Evan Stewart has been out all season, and it's not impossible both of them are available for the first round of the CFP (Moore seems much more likely). Alonza Barnett can make things happen as a dual-threat quarterback, but JMU already lost by two touchdowns to Louisville and struggled against Washington State, so I'm not very concerned about this one.

(38) Mississippi (-17.5) vs. Tulane

The only thing that gives me a little pause about this game is the fact that Lane Kiffin is gone, but this Ole Miss squad is head and shoulders above Tulane and should be able to overcome any issue that it may cause. While Jon Sumrall will stick around for the Green Wave's CFP run, he's already accepted the head coaching gig at Florida, and it's reasonable to question how much investment remains from him on that front with recruiting for 2026 in full effect in Gainesville before the conclusion of the CFP. Perhaps he can gear up something for this game, and Jake Retzlaff can play out of his mind, but I'm not expecting this contest to be a problem for the Rebels, who took the Green Wave down by 35 earlier this season.

(37) Utah (-15.5) vs. Nebraska

This line opened at 14 points and has grown since. The big news here is that star running back Emmett Johnson has declared for the 2025 NFL Draft after amassing 251 carries for 1,451 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns while adding 46 catches for another 370 yards and three scores as a receiver. The Huskers simply don't have someone waiting in the wings to replicate that, and I'm not sure TJ Lateef is ready to take the offense squarely on his shoulders. Utah should win this one handily.

(36) Texas State (-10.5) vs. Rice

Rice's season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, where they've had some solid showings against teams like UConn, Navy, Florida Atlantic and the like, but they've also been blown out numerous times en route to a 5-7 record, including allowing 52-plus points in each of the team's final two regular-season contests. The Bobcats are another team that can light up a scoreboard, tallying 35 or more points in eight of 12 games. I don't believe the Owls have the horses to keep pace in this contest, and the Bobcats have some star players in Brad Jackson, Bo Sparks and Lincoln Pare that Rice won't be able to contain.

(35) Washington (-9.5) vs. Boise State

Boise State has been a postseason darling in the past, but this isn't your dad's Broncos team. Sure, Maddux Madsen returned for the conference championship game against UNLV and posted a solid game, but this Washington squad has some top-tier talent at three different positions on offense, and the Broncos don't have the bodies to match up on the defensive side of things. Boise State's run defense grades out 123rd nationally, per PFF, and that will be a problem facing off against Jonah Coleman, not to mention that Demond Williams is an elite running QB in his own right.

(34) UTSA (-8.5) vs. FIU

UTSA didn't exactly live up to the offensive billing many had hoped for from this squad coming into the 2025 season, but they can put up points in the right context, surpassing the 40-point barrier three different times. I'm not counting on them to surpass 40 again in this game, but they shouldn't have to to take care of business against the Panthers. This game will also take place in Dallas, so I'd expect a much healthier contingent of Roadrunner fans for this contest than that of the Panthers. Not that they need it with Owen McCown, Robert, Henry, Devin McCuin, David Amador and more, all weapons who can help put up points both on the ground and through the air. UTSA's biggest hindrance this season has been its offensive line, but FIU's rush defense grades out 126th out of 136 FBS teams, and its pass rush grades out 93rd, so I expect UTSA's front to perform capably.

(33) Louisville (-9.5) vs. Toledo

We haven't seen the Cards operating at their highest level for much of the season, and it shows in the SP+ ratings. Louisville has been without much of its top running back depth down the stretch, including its four primary ballcarriers in the regular-season finale. Despite that, Louisville thrashed Kentucky by a 41-0 tally, and I expect this team will get healthier in the backfield with some additional rest. The spread is significantly wider than most of the others around this SP+ differential, but I think that's justifiable, and I'd be confident running with Louisville against a Toledo squad operating without head coach Jason Candle, who has taken the job at UConn, in the bowl game.

(32) Northwestern (-10.5) vs. Central Michigan

This line opened at 12.5 but has shrunk a couple of points since then. The SP+ gap here doesn't quite fit the bill of other double-digit favorites, and I'm not the biggest of believers in Preston Stone under center, hence my hesitancy to give the Wildcats too much credit. Still, they're hefty favorites over the Chippewas, who can struggle to generate offense against good teams. I think the Wildcats will lock things down on that side of the ball and do enough on offense to win this contest comfortably, running a healthy amount against a CMU run defense that ranks 112th in the country, per PFF.

(31) Louisiana Tech (-8) vs. Coastal Carolina

My primary question with this game surrounds he health of starting quarterback Samari Collier for the Chanticleers. If he's healthy and available, I think the Chants stand a chance of taking this game outright, but SP+ already likes the Bulldogs by a significant margin, and that bakes in some of Collier's play (I believe). I'd monitor the health of Collier if you have a late swap, but CCU has also fired its head coach, so things could be in disarray here, and Louisiana Tech comes in as a decent favorite as a result.

(30) Missouri (-6.5) vs. Virginia

The Tigers and Beau Pribula struggled at times this season, but the majority of it came against CFP or nearly-CFP level teams in Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. The only blowout loss for the Tigers came at the hands of Texas A&M, but Pribula also missed that contest due to injury. We saw plenty of warts for the Cavaliers in the ACC Championship Game against Duke, and Missouri has more talented weapons at its disposal than Duke does, so I think the Tigers should handle business in this one, especially with few real weapons at risk of opting out.

(29) Tennessee (-5.5) vs. Illinois

The Vols showed some clear flaws throughout the season, but they've also gone toe-to-toe with the likes of Georgia and Oklahoma in close losses. The Illini, on the other hand, lost by 17 to Wisconsin and by Washington and had their doors blown off by Ohio  State and Indiana, albeit the two top teams in the CFP. Ranking 93rd nationally as a coverage unit going against the fifth-best passing offense in yards per game (307.2) doesn't seem like a matchup that bodes well for the Illini.

(28) Texas (-6.5) vs. Michigan

I had to double-check the line after the news Wednesday that head coach Sherrone Moore has been cut loose by the Wolverines. Apparently, the whole fiasco was enough to shift the spread just a single point. The Longhorns, by SP+, only hold a slight edge over Michigan, but my view is that the defenses here are in a similar tier, while Texas still has an edge on the offensive side of things, despite what has proven to be a significant upgrade under center with Bryce Underwood. I was already leaning in Texas' direction prior to the news, but the additional situation has me bumping them up slightly on the list.

(27) USC (-6.0) vs. TCU

I would likely start USC higher on the list than this in general, but my primary fear with this is whether pro prospect wideouts Makai Lemon and Ja'kobi Lane will play in the bowl game, and if so, exactly how much. I feel more confident Lane will play to showcase his abilities, but we have already seen tight end Lake McRee declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, and it wouldn't shock me if there is more to come leading up to the bowl game. It's a simple situation where if changes are allowed until kickoff, I'd start them higher on the list and move down, but about here is where I'd settle on USC if everything locks at kickoff for the first game. TCU also has a formidable squad, but the Trojans fared better against stiffer competition this year, so I trust they'll get it done.

Long story short: Lemon and Lane play, bump them up. If they won't, bump them down.

(26) BYU (-4.5) vs. Georgia Tech

I realize that Haynes King has the capability of putting a team on his back when the occasion calls for it, but I'm just not sure the Yellow Jackets have the defense to slow down the Cougs. Sure, BYU really struggled in the Big 12 Championship Game, but they were also facing the No. 4 team in the country with a quarterback who seemingly got injured early in the contest. SP+ places a bigger gap between these teams than four other selections I've made thus far, and the spread also favors BYU. Georgia Tech's offense grades out slightly better than BYU's on PFF, while the defense has been the team's Achilles heel all season, and Bear Bachmeier, LJ Martin, and company should take advantage of it.

(25) UNLV (-4.5) vs. Ohio

We're drawing closer to the games where things can go either way, but I still feel pretty confident about the Rebels. However, what has seemingly bit them in games they've lost this season (namely Ball State and Western Michigan) is the presence of mobile quarterbacks. Kiael Kelly and Broc Lowry both led their respective teams in rushing against the Bobcats en route to wins, and Colandrea is undoubtedly capable of putting up big numbers on the ground, rushing for 620 yards and nine touchdowns on 118 carries this year. While the two defenses here are probably about equal, I think Colandrea and Jai'Den Thomas (AKA Jet) have proven to be a better version of Parker Navarro and Sieh Bangura this season, and that will ultimately be the difference.

(24) Vanderbilt (-6) vs. Iowa

My confidence in this game has wavered throughout the process, and for that reason, I'm going to stick with Vandy at this spot. According to PFF, Iowa grades out as the better of the two squads, while SP+ has Vanderbilt as a difference in rating that is smaller than the spread suggests. Why, then, am I still willing to put Vanderbilt this high? Six words (three names really): Diego Pavia, Eli Stowers and Clark Lea. That trio has taken Vanderbilt to new heights, and I don't think any will let the bowl game pass with anything less than a win. Now, I also have some concerns with Iowa's passing attack, and that could rear its ugly head if Iowa finds itself trailing. I think this will be a grind-it-out game, but I don't think Iowa has the necessary pieces down the stretch to pull it off. Give me Iowa versus the spread, but Vanderbilt straight up.

(23) North Texas (-3.5) vs. San Diego State

The Mean Green lose head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State for the bowl game, but the Mean Green put up a fight in the AAC Championship Game with a College Football Playoff berth on the line. The real question here is whether freshman phenom running back Caleb Hawkins, who was knocked out of the title game early due to injury, will be available and will participate in the bowl game. Hawkins put up video game numbers while starting the season as a backup. Through the first three games, he totaled 13 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown. The nine regular seaosn games after that: 180 carries for 1,138 yards and 22 rushing touchdowns to go along with 25 catches for 306 yards and another three scores. This game is later in bowl season, and I think Hawkins will show up one more time before possibly exploring the transfer portal. 

This is a contrast of two very different styles: the Aztecs aim to run the ball down your throat with Lucky Sutton and control the clock, while the Mean Green play a pass-heavy, up-tempo offense, so the ultimate pace of play could determine the victor here. I think the Mean Green ultimately outscore their opponents.

(22) Western Kentucky (-4.0) vs. Southern Miss

Despite losing the final two games of the regular season to Jax State and LSU (by only three), the Hiltoppers were playing solid ball down the stretch. Rodney Tisdale and company put up 34-plus points against each of the last three opponents not named LSU, and Southern Miss lost each of its final three games of the regular season. On top of that, head coach Charles Huff has bolted for the Memphis head coaching gig, so things seem to be trending right for one side and wrong for the other.

(21) Fresno State (-3.5) vs. Miami (Ohio)

This is a battle of the quarterback concerns in my eyes. Fresno State has been unable to settle on a quarterback all season, switching repeatedly between E.J. Warner and Carson Conklin. On the flip side, the RedHawks saw starting quarterback Dequan Finn bail on the team with just three games remaining in the regular season. Thomas Gotkowski performed admirably in the two games after Finn's departure, but those came against two opponents who finished the season on three-game losing streaks and missed bowl eligibility. The flaws in his game showed during the MAC Championship Game last weekend, where Gotkowski was benched for Henry Hesson, and I think the Bulldogs just have enough to ultimately pull this one out by forcing the RedHawks to throw.

(20) Jacksonville State (+3.5) vs. Troy

A 3.5-point underdog this high? I just feel strongly that this Trojans squad isn't the same without Goose Crowder and Tae Meadows. Meadows has already indicated he's entering the transfer portal, making him unlikely to suit up, and Crowder was on crutches after leaving with an injury against James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship Game. On top of that, Troy ranks slightly below average against the run (70th in the country), which bodes well for an offense that is predicated on the run, and Jax State also plays the run well, which may force Tucker Kilcresae to carry the offense more than he typically is expected to do. I don't see things going particularly well for the Trojans as a result, though I would likely flip to Troy further down my confidence picks if word comes out that Crowder will play in the bowl game, so keep watch.

(19) Arizona (-3) vs. SMU

SMU's resume-building win is an early-November victory over CFP-bound Miami, which is better than anything the Wildcats have to show, but that came on home turf in a game that saw Miami commit 12 penalties and two turnovers via interception. The 'Stangs feature a run defense that smothers opponents to the tune of just 3.03 yards per carry and 105.9 rushing yards per contest. Good thing for Arizona, it has Noah Fifita, who hasn't batted an eye after losing first-round talent Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL prior to 2025 and has gone on to post a career-best 26:5 TD:INT ratio. He's more than capable of handling things when needed and doesn't turn the ball over. Arizona also has a staunch defense, holding each of its last five opponents to 24 points or fewer. I think that combination gets them over the finish line.

(18)  Pittsburgh (-6) vs. East Carolina

I'm not nearly as confident in this game as the bookmakers, because I believe the Panthers and Pirates match up pretty evenly here, but I have to believe Desmond Reid will be healthier than he has been all season after being in-and-out of game action throughout 2025. He ran for 966 yards and added 579 receiving yards a season ago, to put his potential return to form into context. Reid is no surefire draft prospect at 5-foot-8, 175 pounds, so I don't see him sitting this one out, and I think we'll get one final showcase from the senior before he tries his hand at the pro level. The consensus first overall pick in most college fantasy drafts entering 2025, Reid is a high-caliber weapon that, when added to the mix, should push the Panthers over the top.

(17) Old Dominion (+3.5) vs. South Florida

I'm starting to take some risks at this point on the list, going with teams that I just feel strongly about. I think Vegas is underestimating the Monarchs here because of the news that Colton Joseph will enter the transfer portal and sit out the bowl game. We've seen Quinn Henicle take the field in a starting role in last season's finale, and he mopped up to the tune of 143 passing yards and two touchdowns, and a whopping 206 rushing yards and a pair of scores as a runner. USF grades out as one of the worst tackling defenses in the nation (130th), and that could be a problem against this offense. I think an even bigger factor is Byrum Brown's electing to sit out the bowl game, presumably with intentions of either entering the transfer portal or turning pro. Either way, that's a bigger downgrade in my eyes, and this Old Dominion team hung within two touchdowns of Indiana early in the season.

(16) Clemson (-3.5) vs. Penn State

When I initially went to write this up, I was of the belief that perhaps we might see some of the contingent of Nittany Lions play it out in the bowl game, but we've already seen the coach fired and captain Zane Durant opt out, followed by running back Nicholas Singleton. I'm guessing more will be on the way, and this line could increase before the bowl is played. Clemson has had its fair share of opt-outs already as well, but quarterback Cade Klubnik has already indicated he will play, and he'll have at least T.J. Moore to turn to in the passing attack, plus he should have his regular rotation of backs behind him. The Nittany Lions could struggle mightily offensively if both Singleton and Kaytron Allen sit out.

(15) Navy (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati

This Navy selection comes with my anticipation that Brendan Sorsby will sit out the bowl game for the Bearcats. He is the engine that runs this Cincinnati offense, and they are only slightly ahead of the Midshipmen in the SP+ rankings with his play throughout the year. If he does sit it out, I wouldn't be shocked to see this line tip a few more points in the direction of Navy, though there is still a game to be played here where things could go sideways in the Army-Navy showdown this Saturday.

(14) Houston (-3) vs. LSU

LSU will be sans Whit Weeks, Garrett Nussmeier, Aaron Anderson, and potential first-round pick Mansoor Delane for this game, not to mention there are others who could decide to sit out the contest as well. Houston's resume isn't all that impressive this year either, but I think we'll see a healthier contingent of Cougars on the field than their counterparts. It's enough for me to trust the line here, given that the SP+ ratings of the two teams aren't very far apart, and I trust Conner Weigman more than Michael Van Buren, who has guided LSU to no more than 23 points in a game (versus Arkansas) in three contests since taking over as the starter.

(13) Washington State (+3) vs Utah State

The Aggies are underdogs here by SP+ ratings, but the Coogs lost head coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State before the bowl game, so there is certainly a risk we'll see some opt-outs as players seek out opportunities elsewhere. Even so, Wazzu was playing some pretty good ball over the last few weeks of the season, while Utah State lost two of its last three, beating just a struggling Fresno State squad by 11 points. Zevi Ekchaus is a senior slated for his last game, so there's no reason for him to opt out, and defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit is set to serve as the interim, so I could see most of the players sticking around. NFL opt-outs aren't a major concern here either.

(12) New Mexico (+2.5) vs. Minnesota

Will Darius Taylor play in this game? I think so, as the junior missed a large chunk of the season to showcase his talents for the 2026 NFL Draft, but I'm not 100 percent certain about it either. I would actually bump this up a chunk of spots if I felt more confident that Taylor was sitting out, but alas, I'm sticking with the Lobos, who have been playing good ball down the stretch that includes wins over San Diego State, UNLV, and Utah State as part of a six-game winning streak.

(11) Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs. Appalachian State

The Eagles and Mountaineers squared off earlier this season, and the Eagles took home the victory by two points on the road. This time around, the contest will be played on a neutral field, and I don't see the results going too differently. App State has since made a change under center to JJ Kohl from AJ Swann, but they've also lost a handful of players to the transfer portal. OJ arnold did miss the regular-season finale for Georgia Southern, so his status will be something worth monitoring ahead of the bowl game, but these two squads don't square off until late December, and there was no indication that this is a major issue for Arnold.

(10) Mississippi State (-2.5) vs. Wake Forest

We might see Blak Shapen here for a bit, since it's his last college football game, but Kamari Tyalor has the makings of a dual-threat weapon under center for the Bulldogs, rushing for 173 yards and two touchdowns in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss. Haynes King torched this Wake Forest defense for 106 rushing yards and a pair of scores earlier this season, and I think that's the kind of output Taylor is capable of on the ground. SP+ likes Wake Forest slightly, but I'm not certain it takes fully into account the change under center, and the spread (-2.5) is more indicative, in my opinion.

(9)  Western Michigan (-4) vs. Kennesaw State

SP+ here actually favors Kennesaw State by a bit, but I just think the Bronocos are in a groove right now and have a defense that has smothered opposing offenses of late, allowing no more than 21 points in a game during conference play. The Broncos can control possessions and run the ball while relying on the defense to hold down the Owls, which should get them to the finish line.

(8) California (-1.5) vs. Hawaii

The Rainbow Warriors will be without star wide receiver Jackson Harris for this contest, but they still have plenty of ammunition in the passing chamber to take care of business here despite a big loss atop the depth chart. Cal has also fired its head coach and will turn the reins over to OC Nick Rolovich for the bowl game, so there are some questions about opt-outs here and there on the Golden Bears' side as well. This is a home game for Hawaii, which should give them a slight edge, but the Golden Bears sport one of the better secondaries in the nation, so I think it will be a little too tough for them to move the ball in this one, and Cal picks up the win.

(7) Oklahoma (+1) vs. Alabama

Different books list different odds for this game, but I just don't like what I've seen from Alabama down the stretch. In their last four games, the Crimson Tide have gotten demolished by Georgia, squeaked by a 5-7 Auburn team by a touchdown, beat an FCS team, and lost at home to this same Oklahoma squad. Now they go to Norman, and I'm expected to believe they will win it? Brent Venables has seen these college football playoffs many times before as the defensive coordinator at Clemson, and I think that experience pays off here, as well as that of John Mateer versus Ty Simpson.

(6) Duke (-2) vs. Arizona State

Duke took care of business in the ACC Championship Game, and when we look at who is leaving, it's the Arizona State side that sees it's star players heading out the door, not to mention the rumors of Kenny Dillingham being a potential head coach candidate for the recently-open Michigan job. Sam Leavitt (transfer portal) and Jordyn Tyson (NFL Draft) will sit this one out, which has budged the line minimally, as those weren't particularly surprising outcomes for this game. Still, 

(5) Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. Miami

I dreaded writing this one because I've seen several people of the belief that Miami will take down this contest under the direction of Carson Beck. However, we haven't seen a road team take one of the first-round contests yet (albeit in a one-year sample size). My biggest stick point here is the health of running back Le'Veon Moss, who can be a difference maker as part of a one-two punch alongside Reuben Owens in the backfield. Miami boasts one of the best run defenses in the league, so running fresh legs out there with two stud backs could be a key in making the most of the yardage available. Moss missed the first expected deadline for his return set by Mike Elko of before the end of the regular season, and Elko didn't give us much when asked abou him for the start of the CFP. I think he plays, and it will make a difference.

(4) Delaware (+3) vs. Louisiana

Welcome to the FBS bowl season, Delaware. The Blue Hens found a way to a 6-6 record in their inaugural FBS campaign and have been rewarded with a bowl game appearance as a result. Conventional wisdom here tells me I should go with the Ragin' Cajuns comin' off of four straight wins behind budding quarterback Lunch Winfield, but the Blue Hens do a good job of corralling opposing QBs this year, allowing just 253 rushing yards over 12 games. The Blue Hens were also down a key piece in Jo Silver, who missed Weeks 12 and 13 and carried the ball just seven times in the regular-season finale. I expect the senior to be more involved in the bowl game versus a run defense that ranks 116th against the run, per PFF.

(3) Memphis (+5) vs. NC State

I get all of the narrative in favor of the Wolfpack here, as head coach Ryan Silverfield has left to take the job at Arkansas, but Memphis is viewed as the better squad by both SP+ and PFF, and I tend to agree. The Tigers were playing with an unhealthy Brendon Lewis, who showed up on the injury report before playing. I think the additional rest and prep time leading up to the bowl game should make him easily healthier, and I think that's a big difference-maker for the Tigers. On top of that, the Wolfpack could have some opt-outs on their side, though I'm not counting on that as part of this selection.

(2)  Arkansas State (+1.5) vs. Missouri State

This one was just tough for me to get a really good read on, and all of the metrics are pretty dang close. For that reason, I'm going with the quarterback in Jaylen Raynor, who has more experience as well as postseason experience under his belt. The lights won't be too bright for him in this one, and he'll finish off his career with a win.

(1) UConn (+5.5) vs. Army

This spread has flipped a touchdown in Army's favor since the line opened. Perhaps that's because they are getting some healthy defensive linemen back, and Jim Mora has left the Huskies for the Colorado State coaching gig. Regardless, I'm picking UConn if Skyler Bell is a go in this one.  He's an All-American caliber wide receiver, and Army's secondary ranks 98th in PFF ratings in coverage. I'm also not sold on the Army quarterback situation, though Cale Hellums has done a solid job since taking over. Joe Fagnano is a senior and will certainly be under center for the Huskies. That said, starting running back Cam Edwards has opted out, but I think Mel Brown is a more than capable replacement, and Victor Rosa (if healthy) can chip in too.