NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region

With a key injury to the lowest No. 1 seed, this quadrant feels rather unpredictable compared to some likely chalk elsewhere. That said, there doesn't appear to be a sexy double-digit seed creating initial buzz. The old adage of "early for show, late for dough" may not reign true in the East, as I think we're set up for a relatively lackluster first round before the later rounds could go in a number of ways.

The Favorites

 No. 1 Michigan - The Wolverines bring plenty of heat to the table, but seem to be limping in to the post season. Ranking sixth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency, it's easy to justify their top seed. They're anchored by 7-foot-1 freshman Hunter Dickinson (14.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 59.9 percent FG), one of the few teams in the tournament that still run offense through the post. His presence forces double teams, leading to open outside looks, as the Wolverines shoot 38.7 percent from 3-point range, 12th in the nation. But the Wolverines are losers of three of their last five, and likely will be without top forward Isaiah Livers (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.0 apg) for at least the first weekend due to stress fracture in his foot. As such, they present as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed.

 No. 2 Alabama - Alabama comes into the Dance as the SEC regular season and tournament champions. They find success in a variety of ways, but most notably rank second in defensive efficiency and ninth in tempo. SEC Player of the Year Herb Jones elevated his game last week in Nashville, averaging 13.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.3 steals and 2.3 rebounds, but the Tide are far more than just their star. They have three additional double-digit scorers, led by Jaden Shackelford (14.2 ppg) and comfortably go eight deep. There may be some questions as to the overall strength of the SEC compared to the Big 10 and Big 12, but Alabama likely has an argument for a No. 1 seed, and should be plenty motivated to prove they were snubbed.

 No. 3 Texas - The Longhorns opened the year by winning the Maui Invitational, and closed by winning the Big 12 Championship. Those bookends highlight a year of inconsistency for Texas, who are 19-7 overall after losing six of 10 in the middle portion of the season. As with most high seeds, the Longhorns rank near the top on both sides of the ball -- in this instance, 21st offensively and 36th defensively. They have six guys averaging between 8.8 and 14.6 ppg, led by guard Andrew Jones. Greg Brown and Kai Jones give the Longhorns length and high-end potential on the interior, as both are viewed as terrific NBA prospects. Depth and a high level of skill will make UT a difficult out.

 No. 4 Florida State - Widely accepted as the ACC's best team, the Seminoles struggled down the stretch before falling to Georgia Tech in the conference's final last Saturday. They are another deep squad in this region, with nine players going at least 14.4 minutes nightly. Forward RaiQuan Gray (12.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg) gives them an inside-outside threat, while freshman sixth-man Scottie Barnes (11.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.2 apg) gives the 'Noles their latest likely NBA lottery pick. They arguably don't have a signature win however, with their most impressive victory coming over Virginia in mid-February, while also owning curious losses to UCF and Notre Dame. Ranking 10th nationally in offensive efficiency, FSU is capable of beating anyone in this bracket. But in a down year for the ACC, the inconsistent results here don't lend themselves to confidence of a deep run.

Cinderella Watch

 No.8 LSU - One through four, you may be able to argue the Tigers as the best team in this bracket on talent alone. Cameron Thomas, Trendon Watford, Darius Days and Javonte Smart afford LSU elite offensive capabilities, ranking fifth in efficiency, but they simply haven't been willing to defend all season, ranking 125th. It's a difficult opening round matchup against Bona and Kyle Lofton, but the Bonnies aren't deep, and if LSU survives, they can take advantage of Livers absence and at worst push the Wolverines to the brink.

 No. 6 BYU - The Cougars are a veteran group who can score (28th in offensive efficiency) and defend (26th), a clear recipe for postseason success. Alex Barcello connects from 3-point range at an obscene 48.6 percent while Brandon Averette has at least four assists in nine straight. Of their six losses, three came to Gonzaga, who they pushed to the brink in the West Coast final. Barcello is a former Arizona Wildcat, while Averette started at Oklahoma State. They've also got for Purdue big man Matt Haarms protecting the rim. I'm not taking the bait and calling for a first-round upset by either UCLA or Michigan State, whom are inconsistent at best, and the Cougars won't be a pushover against Texas in the second round. 

Biggest Bust

 No. 4 Florida State - The Noles lost three of their final five games, and committed 43 turnovers in their two ACC Tournament outings. Guard M.J. Walker missed a February 24 matchup with Miami due to an "undisclosed nagging injury" and hasn't been the same since, hitting just 41.5 percent from the floor. Their sum is greater than their individual pieces, and seemingly lacking continuity at the moment, it's difficult to see a path to the tournament's second weekend despite Leonard Hamilton's past tournament success. 

First-Round Upset

No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 Connecticut - Truth be told, while I think there's room for chaos throughout this region, I don't think it's coming in the first round, where I'm banking on all of the higher seeds winning, sans for maybe the 8/9 matchup. Maryland closed the regular season with losses to Penn State and Northwestern, and could easily not show up here. But if UConn isn't at full health (more below), they could easily be bounced. These two rank 317 and 301 in tempo, so a close, low scoring game is expected. In a game that likely comes down to a final possession or two, there's clearly a chance the high seed moves on here.

Player to Watch

James Bouknight, G, Connecticut - This region very well could come down to the health of two stars. Michigan's Livers is the obvious suspect, and while he's key to Michigan's longevity in the tournament, he's a piece to their puzzle. Bouknight, however, is more the entire puzzle for the Huskies, averaging 19.0 points and 5.6 rebounds. He's the one player I view as capable of putting a team on his back and carrying them to a deep run. The Huskies play great defense (25th) and really grind tempo (308th), which could frustrate Alabama in the second round. But they are far too offensively challenged to beat the Tide without a fully healthy Bouknight. 

Sweet 16 Picks

 No. 1 Michigan - Livers absence isn't a concern against a 16 seed. Michigan's interior defense is elite, allowing just a 42.3 percent success rate on two-point field goals. I trust them to be good enough defensively to stave off either LSU's top-end talent, or St. Bonaventure's five-man rotation. But it won't be easy, nor pretty.

 No. 5 Colorado - Everyone wants to talk about Georgetown, who will be a popular upset pick, so I'll go against that and try to score some contrarian points. Prior to falling to Oregon State in the Pac-12 Championship, the Buffaloes had lost just twice since January 30. They've got a bonafide ace in guard McKinnley Wright, and are comfortable playing at a slow pace, ranking 280th in tempo, per KenPom, and 29th in defensive efficiency. If FSU is busting, Colorado is on to the tournament's second weekend.

 No. 3 Texas - The path to the second weekend isn't easy, at all. The Longhorns are single-digit favorites against a defensive-minded Abilene Christian, but the Wildcats don't have a go-to option offensively and will succumb to the Longhorns' top-end talent. BYU is a dangerous second-round matchup, but the Texas length will limit the Cougars 3-point success and push Texas into the Sweet 16.

 No. 2 Alabama- Rick Pitino's Gaels don't pose a threat in Round 1. UConn is a scary proposition in Round 2 if they survive Maryland, as the contrasting styles can frustrate the Tide, and limited possessions from a slower tempo lead to less margin for error. But depth will allow the Tide to find a way into the second weekend.

Final Four Pick

No. 2 Alabama - Herb Jones willed this team to an SEC Tournament championship, and I'm buying into his and the supporting casts' continuity to win four straight. I find the Tide to be the clear best team in the bracket's bottom half, and think the top half is an absolute mess, clearing Alabama's path into a national semifinal somewhat by default.