This article is part of our Final Four Preview series.
NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview: Purdue vs. NC State
Matchup: No. 1 seed Purdue is making its first Final Four appearance since 1980, while No. 11 NC State has also made it back for the first time since 1984. Arguably, the two biggest stars of the tournament, Zach Edey and DJ Burns, will face off in a big-man showdown to determine who will make it to the NCAA Tournament Championship. The Wolfpack are the sixth No. 11 seed to ever make the Final Four and will look to become the only double-digit seed to make the championship game. While NC State has a 4-2 record in the all-time series against the Boilermakers, Purdue has won the last two matchups.
Purdue, Midwest Region No. 1 Seed
Backcourt: Braden Smith and Lance Jones are the starting guards for the Boilermakers. The two are practically even in terms of scoring, as Smith averages 12.3 points per game compared to Jones' 12.0. However, Smith has the ball in his hands much more often as Purdue's primary playmaker, averaging 7.5 assists per game on the season and 9.5 across his four NCAA tournament appearances. The sophomore guard displayed his importance to the team by putting up 14 points, 15 assists, eight rebounds and a steal against Gonzaga. Jones is used primarily as a spot-up shooter, converting 35.7 percent of his 5.8 three-point attempts per game. Smith is much more efficient, albeit on lower volume, shooting 44.2 percent on 3.3 three-point attempts per contest. The
NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview: Purdue vs. NC State
Matchup: No. 1 seed Purdue is making its first Final Four appearance since 1980, while No. 11 NC State has also made it back for the first time since 1984. Arguably, the two biggest stars of the tournament, Zach Edey and DJ Burns, will face off in a big-man showdown to determine who will make it to the NCAA Tournament Championship. The Wolfpack are the sixth No. 11 seed to ever make the Final Four and will look to become the only double-digit seed to make the championship game. While NC State has a 4-2 record in the all-time series against the Boilermakers, Purdue has won the last two matchups.
Purdue, Midwest Region No. 1 Seed
Backcourt: Braden Smith and Lance Jones are the starting guards for the Boilermakers. The two are practically even in terms of scoring, as Smith averages 12.3 points per game compared to Jones' 12.0. However, Smith has the ball in his hands much more often as Purdue's primary playmaker, averaging 7.5 assists per game on the season and 9.5 across his four NCAA tournament appearances. The sophomore guard displayed his importance to the team by putting up 14 points, 15 assists, eight rebounds and a steal against Gonzaga. Jones is used primarily as a spot-up shooter, converting 35.7 percent of his 5.8 three-point attempts per game. Smith is much more efficient, albeit on lower volume, shooting 44.2 percent on 3.3 three-point attempts per contest. The one potential weakness of this backcourt is their size, with Smith standing at 6-foot and Jones at 6-foot-one.
Frontcourt: Purdue lives and dies by Zach Edey, and the likely repeat Player of the Year has been absolutely thriving so far in the tournament. The 7-foot-4 center is averaging 30.0 points, 16.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.8 blocks in 33.8 minutes on 65.6 percent shooting from the field across their first four games. Edey is coming off a dominant performance against Tennesse, scoring a career-high 40 points and hauling in 16 boards. The senior big man puts every opposing defense in a tough spot with his 11.2 free-throw attempts per contest on the season. Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis split time at power forward, but their roles are mostly to play tough defense and provide spacing for Edey to operate. If Edey can keep up these performances, it could go down as one of the all-time best individual March Madness runs.
X-Factor: Fletcher Loyer is the unsung hero for the Boilermakers. There is no doubt that Zach Edey is the team's star, and Braden Smith is key to orchestrating their offense. However, Purdue's style of play only works if it can get its star big man room to operate in the paint. Saying that Loyer provides spacing is an understatement, as he is posting 50.0/46.2/90.0 shooting splits so far in the tournament. Loyer is a certified sniper who makes teams second-guess helping on the Smith-Edey pick-and-roll. Loyer is also a quality perimeter defender who contributes to Purdue's elite defense. If Loyer is knocking down shots at will, it makes it that much harder to send a double-team at Edey.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Grambling State 78-50
Utah State 106-67
Gonzaga 80-68
Tennessee 72-66
Purdue Will Win If: Zach Edey continues to play like a man possessed. It seems obvious, but I don't see how it's possible for Purdue to lose if Edey puts up another performance on par with his play so far in the tournament. Against the Volunteers, arguably the best defense in the country, Edey completely took over the game and shot a staggering 22 free throws. No one can withstand the foul trouble that he puts opposition frontcourts in. Purdue showed it doesn't even need to shoot well from the outside to win, as the Boilermakers made just three of their 15 three-point attempts against Tennesee. If Edey continues to play like one of the best college big men in recent memory, the Boilermakers should be able to punch their ticket to the championship game.
Prediction: Purdue is coming into its matchup with No. 11 seed NC State as 9.5-point favorites, per FanDuel. It's not hard to see why, as the Boilermakers blew out their first two opponents, beat Gonzaga by 12 and then showed their ability to win close games in their six-point victory over Tennessee. Zach Edey is enjoying one of the greatest March Madness runs ever, and it seems like no one is capable of slowing him down. While DJ Burns is one of the few big men in the country with the size to battle with Edey in the post, Edey still has a seven-inch height advantage. I foresee Edey hook-shotting NC State to death with no one able to get high enough to contest the shot. Ultimately, I think Purdue will advance to the NCAA Tournament Championship for the second time in school history, putting an end to the Wolfpacks' Cinderella run.
-Written by Michael Gillow
North Carolina State, South Region No. 11 Seed
Matchup: Cinderella is alive and well, as the Wolfpack have ridden a stunning hot streak all the way to the Final Four. North Carolina State is appearing on this stage for the first time since 1983's magical trip, perhaps the most unlikely championship run of all-time. This year's squad could top that with two more victories, though they will likely have to get past two Goliaths.
First up will be the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilermakers exorcised some of their own March demons in recent history. Led by perennial Player of the Year candidate Zach Edey, Purdue outlasted Tennessee and will play in its first Final Four since 1980.
Let's take a look at how each squad got here, their respective strengths and weaknesses, and predict who will ultimately come out on top and play for the title.
Backcourt: The Wolfpack is led by veteran, experienced guards in the backcourt. Leading scorer DJ Horne is in his fifth collegiate season, and the Arizona State transfer has recorded double-digits in points in seven of the last eight contests. Casey Morsell is also in his fifth collegiate campaign, averaging double figures in points while also usually putting the defensive clamps on the opposition's best guard. Michael O'Connell, another senior, performs the role of the Swiss Army knife. He tallied six points, 11 rebounds, six dimes and two steals in the Elite Eight triumph over Duke. O'Connell also serves as the primary ballhandler, though all three guards can distribute. Junior Jayden Taylor can provide instant offense off the bench if necessary.
Frontcourt: DJ Burns has been the unquestioned talk of the tournament. The transfer from Winthrop began his collegiate career at Tennessee. Burns is nimble for his size, crafty and possesses an extremely high basketball IQ. He was the ACC Tournament's Most Valuable Player and the South Region's Most Outstanding Player. 6-10 junior Mohamed Diarra is the leading rebounder for the Wolfpack; he has reached double-digits in boards in six of the last seven games. Reserve forward Ben Middlebrooks has played a vital role off the bench with his hustle and defense; he even scored a game-high 21 points in the first-round win over Texas Tech.
X-Factor: Defense. During the regular season, the Wolfpack allowed an average of 72.0 points per tilt. In the NCAA Tournament, NC State is allowing just 65.5 points per contest. The only time they allowed more than 70 points? The overtime win over Oakland. Burns and the offense have been getting most of the publicity, but NC State has also ratcheted up the defensive intensity during this dynamite run.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Texas Tech, 80-67
Oakland, 79-73
Marquette, 67-58
Duke, 76-64
NC State Will Win If: It can keep Zach Edey in check. While stopping Edey is unlikely, the best the Wolfpack can hope for is to slow him down or make things difficult for him. Edey scored 40 of Purdue's 72 points in the Elite Eight win over Tennessee, has posted seven-straight double-doubles and has not been held below 23 points in any of those contests. Edey is shooting over 65 percent from the field during the big dance. He has also been able to avoid fouls; while Edey is a shot blocker as well, it may behoove the Wolfpack to attempt to get him in foul trouble.
PREDICTION
It feels as though Connecticut and Purdue are on a collision course to vie for the National Championship. Certainly, the betting odds favor such a final. The matchup of the aforementioned Edey and Donovan Clingan of UConn at center would be a clash of titans in its own right. However, the Wolfpack could have something to say about that. Burns has had his way with seven-footers like North Carolina's Armando Bacot, Duke's Kyle Filipowski, Marquette's Oso Ighodaro and Texas Tech's Warren Washington during this incredible stretch. Unfortunately, Burns will have to match up with literally the best player in college basketball, and NC State will also have to hold Purdue's equally talented guards in check as well. Edey might be too much even for Burns. North Carolina State is the seventh double-digit seed to make the Final Four; none have made it to the National Championship. The clock will finally strike midnight for the Wolfpack versus the Boilermakers. Purdue moves on.
-Written by Jesse Siegel
