This article is part of our Final Four Preview series.
North Carolina heading to the Final Four for their second straight season, while Oregon ends an eight-year drought for the Pac-12 conference, as the league hasn't had a representative since the Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love days. The following is a comprehensive preview of how the matchup breaks down on paper.
North Carolina Tar Heels, South Region No.1 Seed
Backcourt: Joel Berry headlines a deep and talented group for the Tar Heels that has helped get them back to the final weekend for the second year in a row. Berry has had ankle issues throughout the tournament, starting with an awkward landing on a 3-point shot in the opening round. He rolled his other ankle during Sunday's contest but was able to come back in and play through it. Despite playing on a balky ankle, Berry managed to put up 11 points, four rebounds, and three assists while swiping a pair of steals. Beyond Berry, there's a handful of talented players that have made this deep run possible. Theo Pinson, who doesn't make a major box score impact, is a ferocious defender on the wing that helped hold Kentucky's Malik Monk to 12 points Sunday. He will undoubtedly be a thorn in the side of any Oregon wing player on Saturday. Furthermore, Nate Britt provides a strong presence off the bench thanks to his speed and high basketball IQ. With the way Oregon has to had to adjust its lineups in the wake of Chris Boucher's injury, North Carolina
North Carolina heading to the Final Four for their second straight season, while Oregon ends an eight-year drought for the Pac-12 conference, as the league hasn't had a representative since the Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love days. The following is a comprehensive preview of how the matchup breaks down on paper.
North Carolina Tar Heels, South Region No.1 Seed
Backcourt: Joel Berry headlines a deep and talented group for the Tar Heels that has helped get them back to the final weekend for the second year in a row. Berry has had ankle issues throughout the tournament, starting with an awkward landing on a 3-point shot in the opening round. He rolled his other ankle during Sunday's contest but was able to come back in and play through it. Despite playing on a balky ankle, Berry managed to put up 11 points, four rebounds, and three assists while swiping a pair of steals. Beyond Berry, there's a handful of talented players that have made this deep run possible. Theo Pinson, who doesn't make a major box score impact, is a ferocious defender on the wing that helped hold Kentucky's Malik Monk to 12 points Sunday. He will undoubtedly be a thorn in the side of any Oregon wing player on Saturday. Furthermore, Nate Britt provides a strong presence off the bench thanks to his speed and high basketball IQ. With the way Oregon has to had to adjust its lineups in the wake of Chris Boucher's injury, North Carolina has a distinct backcourt advantage that could make the difference in what should be a close battle between a pair of strong squads.
Frontcourt: When you think frontcourt in this year's landscape, North Carolina's comes to mind immediately. Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks are two of the baddest dudes in the game and a huge reason behind North Carolina's No.1 rating in terms of offensive rebounding percentage. Meeks alone pulled down an absurd 17 rebounds in Sunday's win over Kentucky, which has a strong pair of bigs in its own right. Also, while not a true big by any extent, Justin Jackson is arguably North Carolina's most important player. He leads the team in scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game on 44.8 percent shooting. This trio completes what I'd argue is the strongest starting five among the remaining teams, and it's something that will be a major issue for anyone the Tar Heels face.
X-Factor: Theo Pinson. While he's not a key contributor when you're looking at the box score, Pinson is a guy that can defend several different positions and defend them well. If he stays out of foul trouble, which he was unable to do Sunday, he can pose a major problem for the flow of Oregon's offense. North Carolina could start out using one of its bigs on Dillon Brooks, but Pinson has the length and tenacity to give him issues if coach Roy Williams opts to deploy him there. Brooks will ultimately be able to make an impact offensively, but if Pinson can consistently make him uncomfortable, it'll be a massive disruption to Oregon's efficient attack.
They'll Win if: They control the boards. It's nothing new with this team, as I noted in last week's piece that the Heels' ability to out-rebound everyone they face is a huge advantage every time they step on the floor. That'll be the case again this week against an Oregon squad who, while it out-rebounded Kansas, won't be ready for this type of aggression on the boards. Yes, Oregon has been able to survive Chris Boucher's injury to this point in the tournament, but they haven't faced a front like this one. I expect Meeks and Hicks to not only take away Oregon's second-chance points, but also extend North Carolina's possessions, which is a scary advantage given UNC's shooters on the outside.
--John McKechnie
Oregon Ducks, Midwest No. 3 seed
After a couple of shaky close wins, Oregon left no doubt by defeating an offensive juggernaut, the No. 1-seeded Kansas Jayhawks, in the Elite Eight. Personally, after their performance against Rhode Island, I thought there was little chance they would defeat both Michigan and Kansas. While they struggled a bit against Michigan, they finally clicked against Kansas and will look again to be a tough matchup for North Carolina.
Backcourt: The Oregon backcourt is led by Tyler Dorsey, who is averaging 24.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.5 steals in 34.8 minutes per game across four NCAA Tournament games. Payton Pritchard (7.4 ppg), Dylan Ennis (10.7 ppg), and Casey Benson (4.9 ppg) have also provided valuable minutes in this year's tournament for the Ducks. They all came to play in Saturday's Elite Eight matchup, when they collectively held in check one of the nation's best backcourt duos formed by Frank Mason and Devonte Graham.
Frontcourt: Jordan Bell is playing at an elite level while taking on extra minutes created by the loss of Chris Boucher (ACL). He recorded a double-double against Kansas (his second straight), and had a stunning eight blocks to boot. The true superstar here, however, is Dillon Brooks, who has also continued to prove difficult to stop for opposing teams. He's scored a dozen or more points in each tournament game, and is the go-to player when late-game heroics are necessary. Wrapping up the frontcourt rotation are the 6-11 Kavell Bigby-Williams and the 6-7 freshman Keith Smith, who have each seen a slight bump in minutes after Boucher went down. If Bell finds himself in foul trouble, Oregon will either have to play small ball or rely on one of those players to step up.
X-factor: A staunch defense and clutch shots have placed Oregon in the Final Four this season. Their ability to fight back from being down has proven necessary to get them this far, and they are ranked the No. 19 team in defensive efficiency, and No. 1 in shot-blocking, per KenPom. (Granted, some of that was due to Boucher protecting the rim). There's (almost) no one I'd rather have in a final game-winning possession than this Oregon roster, with several clutch weapons, including both Brooks and Dorsey. Brooks has racked up three buzzer-beaters already this season, and he might need another miracle shot for the Ducks to advance to the National Championship.
Who they beat to get here:
Iona, 93-77
Rhode Island, 75-72
Michigan, 69-68
Kansas, 74-60
They'll win if: They can keep it close enough and put themselves in a position to control the last few possessions. I have never seen a team work so adeptly and calmly in the last minutes of a game, which is reflective of their head coach Dana Altman. They'll need to keep North Carolina from getting second-chance points, as the Tar Heels are just too talented to allow them to get recycled opportunities on offense. The outcome will likely come down to rebounding, as boards will be key in preventing patented UNC runs.
--Hannah Johnson
PREDICTIONS
Hannah: I thought their luck would run out against Kansas, and the Ducks once again proved me wrong. I predict this will be closer than the Kansas game, because North Carolina is battle-tested this tournament. This one has OT potential, but I think North Carolina has too many weapons and in the end, will outlast Oregon to head to their second straight national championship game.
John: I'm not re-inventing the wheel here, and neither will the Heels. If you can dominate the glass, you exponentially increase your chances at taking home the W. That's what I expect to be the case here. While Oregon has certainly earned its right to make it to Phoenix thanks to the strong play of Brooks and Jordan Bell, it just doesn't seem like it'll be enough to counteract North Carolina's balanced attack that also features an absolutely dominant frontcourt. Yes, Oregon ranks a respectable 70th in the nation in terms of offensive rebounding, and it's fair to question how much of that has to do with Boucher. Oregon is going to give North Carolina everything it can handle, but the Heels' depth and interior presence will ultimately prove to be too much to handle.