This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday's college hoops slate is rather slim, but thankfully, we at least have a few entertaining matchups to consider. Here are my predictions for a pair of games on Friday evening.
College Basketball Picks Today
Butler at 
Georgetown
The last time the Hoyas took the court, I predicted they would be demolished against St. John's. Sure enough, the Johnnies jumped out to a 41-11 lead and never looked back. Despite the rough outcome in its previous game, I believe Georgetown will bounce back on Friday, thanks to an entirely different matchup.
Unlike St. John's, which plays defense at an elite level, Butler has had massive defensive issues all season. For the year, they rank 124th in defensive efficiency, and this sub-par level of play carried over into the conference season, where they have the third-worst defensive rating among Big East teams. Perhaps more importantly, they have the third-worst defensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. This is a boon for the Hoyas, which has had massive turnover problems offensively for most of the season. In my article for their last game, I documented their extensive offensive issues, so this is a much-needed matchup after getting hounded by the Johnnies in their previous time out.
Facing a weak defense is a massive boost for Georgetown, mainly because it's actually strong on the defensive side of the court. It's not clearly evident when looking at their record from the past month, but the numbers don't lie. The Hoyas have the 30th-best defensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, and they've kept the same energy against Big East foes, ranking third in the conference. Georgetown is effective in many areas defensively, ranking fourth or better in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and two-point FG percent allowed. Butler isn't bad offensively, but it's not great, either. The Bulldogs rank 58th in efficiency for the whole season and fifth during conference play, making this a capable group but also underwhelming. They've been held to 70 or fewer points in five of 10 conference games.
It's also worth noting that Butler still hasn't won on the road. It has a pair of victories at neutral sites but none in hostile environments. It almost won one in its last trip to Connecticut but lost by two in overtime. Outside of that, they've lost by at least eight points in all other road trips.
Both of these teams are reeling, but someone has to win on Friday. Given its favorable offensive matchup and strong defense, my money's on the home team. I'm taking Georgetown.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. As mentioned above, the Hoyas' defensive strength and offensive weakness lend themselves to participating in low-scoring games. Butler's playing style is also conducive to a low-scoring game, as the Bulldogs rank 303rd in the nation in average offensive possession length. Based on the combination of these two facts, I like our odds of seeing a low final score.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgetown -3 and Under 139.5
Dayton at 
Saint Louis
The Flyers collected a couple of impressive victories during the non-conference season, beating Connecticut and Marquette, but they've since fallen back to earth against Atlantic 10 competition. Dayton has lost four of eight conference games, including losses to George Washington and Massachusetts, curious results after playing great basketball early in the year. Since conference season tipped off, Dayton has fallen from No. 31 to No. 74 on KenPom's overall efficiency, as sharp of a drop-off as you'll find.
The Billikens, meanwhile, have risen and massively improved over the same period. Before its first conference game on New Year's Eve, Saint Louis was 151st in overall efficiency, and it has since shot up to No. 104. They still trail the visiting team by quite a few slots, but the gap has closed substantially as these two teams trend in opposite directions.
The change in performance is most evident at one end of the court in particular. Dayton ranks 38th in offensive efficiency for the whole season, which is the highest among Atlantic 10 teams; however, if we focus on conference-only data, then its ranking within the league drops to sixth. At the same time, Saint Louis ranks 123rd in defensive efficiency for the whole season, but it also has the best defensive rating in the league during conference season. Aside from worsening offensively, Dayton also has the issue of playing against a team that can counter its strength. The Flyers are most dangerous from beyond the arc, where they've made a league-leading 37 percent against Atlantic 10 opponents. Not to be outdone, the Billikens have held conference opponents to 21 percent on three-point attempts, the best mark in the league. Saint Louis also ranks first in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed and second in free-throw attempt rate allowed, further rounding out a strong defense.
When playing in the other direction, the Billikens again hold an advantage. Saint Louis' offense outranks Dayton's defense in several critical categories: efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and two-point field goal percentage. The latter needs to be highlighted, as Saint Louis boasts the nation's second-highest two-point field goal percentage, making almost 61 percent of its attempts. This stat has actually improved during conference play, making a league-leading 65 percent of shots inside the arc, an essential note because Dayton hasn't been stout in the paint all year. The problem has worsened against conference foes, allowing over 52 percent, the sixth-worst in the league.
Overall, Saint Louis has played better basketball over the past month. Additionally, it has only lost one home game all season, while Dayton has only won a single road game all season. For these reasons, I'm taking the Billikens.
College Basketball Best Bet: Saint Louis +1.5
College Basketball Best Bets Friday
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Georgetown -3
- Butler at Georgetown - Under 139.5
- Saint Louis +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
