College Basketball DFS Picks for Saturday, November 15
It's a pretty light Saturday for DFS hoops, with DraftKings offering a six-game main slate that features a $1,000 first-place prize in it's primary tournament for a $10 entry. What's important is that there are only 352 entries in this main contest, so the odds of winning are slightly better in that you don't have to beat a plethora of lineups. We tip at noon EST.
It's a moderately lower-scoring slate than what we've seen in the early going, SMU - Butler and Louisville - Ohio are the clear games to target with totals at 169.5 and 175.5, respectively, while all other games sit at 149.5 or less.
The big injury to note is Kansas' Darryn Peterson ($9,700), who will miss due to a hamstring issue. The Jayhawks have an 86 point implied total, but given that they are nearly 24-point favorites, I don't believe we have to force a bargain option in Peterson's absence, as minutes should be spread out.
College Basketball DFS Top Players
Mikel Brown, Louisville ($9,100)
To be honest, I don't see a reason to fade SMU's Boopie Miller ($10,200) outside of the price, as that game should be far more competitive. But for a nice price discount, we can get high-end production from a lead guard on a team that has a massive 103 point expectancy. Brown has been a consistent facilitator, dishing out at least five assists in three games to start his career. But, he's gaining confidence in the scoring column, which creates a high ceiling.
Michael Ajayi, Butler ($8,900)
This looks like a play you simply have to take as I don't think anyone won't. Ajayi was highly productive at Pepperdine, struggled to fit in at Gonzaga, but is now feasting at Butler with three straight double-doubles. I'm a firm believer in paying for an expensive frontcourt, Ajayi is the most expensive, but not massively to your salary cap, and it's a good matchup. Narrow spread, high total, and SMU has a 7-foot-2 center that Ajayi can extend, and nothing else to combat him.
Pharrel Payne, F, Maryland ($7,200)
Our advanced lineup tool doesn't love Payne Saturday, but I'll go against it and target a second top forward option that seems fairly priced. Payne followed Buzz Williams to Maryland from Texas A&M, and he is being leaned on heavily, seeing 32 minutes and a 24.5 percent usage rate, having not scored less than 17 or grab less than six boards in his first three. It's a slower pace game but the narrow spread should again lead to heavy minutes and production by default.
Middle Tier
Nick Davidson, F, Clemson ($6,600)
Davidson's game logs don't inspire a ton of confidence, but his minutes have been reduced because of a lack of competition which shouldn't be the case Saturday. With 30 minutes expected, he's a double-double threat. The tempo here isn't going to be elite, but both sides still come with 70+ point expectancy and it's a narrow spread where the starters should handle a bulk of the minutes.
Donald Hand, G, Boston College ($6,200)
Hand isn't off to a white-hot start, but he's averaging 16.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, both of which are slightly up from last year. And he's got a 33.3 percent usage rate, having not played less than 30 minutes or taken less than 14 shots. The price here is borderline elite; he's a scorer almost exclusively, so if he's hot, we get a 5x+ potential. If he's not, there's still enough volume for a 3x return.
Samet Yigitoglu, F, SMU ($6,200)
This slate is testing me and my high-priced forward build preference, as there does appear to be ample value available in the frontcourt. We likely want/need a piece of the SMU attack that's expected to flirt with 90 points, and Yigitoglu is the cheapest starter for a team that doesn't have much depth. He's averaging a nice 32.2 minutes, has scored in double-digits in all three games while grabbing at least eight rebounds. There seems to be a nice floor here.
College Basketball DFS Value Plays
Nigel James, G, Marquette ($4,800)
James hasn't been below 15.0 DKP in four games, so presumably we're locking in a 3x return. He's had usage rates of 26.4 and 37.9 percent over the last two games and could draw a second start if Sean Jones misses Saturday. It's an expected tight game, so if Jones plays, I do question James' floor against stiffer competition.
Javan Simmons, F, Ohio ($4,600)
In matchups where we've got a Power 4 school against a mid-major, I'd usually prefer to target a guard from the team that's overmatched, as they're likely to see more volume. But, Simmons can be an exception, seeing a nice 31.4 percent usage rate through three games. He's averaged double-digits in both of his prior seasons, and in a lone game against a big school last year (Purdue), he posted a decent enough 14.0 DKP, which is a 3x return. With the pace here elevated, if that's the floor, he works as an option to fit higher priced targets.
Elmarko Jackson, G, Kansas ($4,400)
As noted in the intro, we don't have to force a player into lineups just because injury presents opportunity. But if you want to, that option is Jackson, who started in Peterson's absence Tuesday and posted 15.75 DKP across 20 minutes, a decent 3.6x return. He's not a big scorer and likely won't log huge minutes with Kansas expected to blow Princeton out, so it's a bit of a gamble that doesn't have much upside. But the price still forces us to at least consider him as a cheap option.
