This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
College Basketball DFS: DraftKings Picks & Preview for Thursday, March 20
There's no time of the year like March Madness, and for DFS players, there are finally some big payouts to play for. DraftKings is offering a $25k top prize in its CBB $100k Tourney Tip-Off, which features all 16 games on the Thursday slate (a few teams still TBD based on play-ins at time of publication).
Here at RotoWire, we'll be offering DFS college basketball articles for each day that features NCAA Tournament games and much of the NIT as well. Since there are quite a few new faces here this time of year, I first want to run down a few of the tools we offer here on RotoWire before getting into my recommendations.
The home base for most of our subscribers is our redesigned DFS College Basketball Lineup Optimizer, but as any DFS player knows, an optimizer is only as good as how you use it. Sure, go ahead and give the default optimizer a spin, but if there's a play you're not confident in, we encourage using the red X to remove them from your player pool. Think our formula might overvalue a mid-major player whose stats are built on lower competition? Boom, trust your gut and eliminate them from the pool. This also works great with injured players who we're pretty sure will be out but don't know definitively yet, so they still have projections. You can also "like" a player to increase their projection by 20 percent, or manually change a projection to whatever you like.
If you agree with any of my recommendations below, use the padlock button to make sure they are featured in your lineup, or if mass entering, increase their minimum exposure percentage via the customizations menu. In addition to exposure, the "Customizations" menu at the top of the screen features a whole new assortment of options for variance, custom groups and more.
Another popular tool is the DFS Matchup Info page, where you can sort the teams by implied total, as well as offensive/defensive efficiency stats calculated by our our developers behind the scenes. It's the perfect place to get started, as it will help you find out which games to target. Here's a sneak peek at what that page looks like for Thursday:
Next up, our Advanced College Basketball Lineups page is a resource that's second to none. Here, you'll be able to view recent starters for each team in the player pool alongside salaries, with stats like minutes, usage and fantasy PPG included. It's perfect for researching the lesser-known mid-majors and gathering recent trends. You can also click on any team logo to navigate to a team-specific page, which shows usage from last year among other stats. Here's one for Gonzaga-Georgia, which has one of the tighter spreads among the projected high-scoring games:
Last but certainly not least, any DFS player knows that the best potential values are often created by injuries, so it's imperative to check out our College Basketball Injury Report, which you can filter by the DFS slate of your choice. Here's a snap shot of players with an injury tag for Thursday:
With all the tools and tricks now out of the way, let's go ahead and take a look at some of the top picks for Thursday's slate, organized by salary tier.
College Basketball DFS Top Players
Braden Smith, G, Purdue ($9,900)
I'm not optimistic in Purdue making it far, or even winning this matchup, as the Boilermakers sputtered down the stretch. However, the Purdue/High Point game has the highest over/under on the slate at 153.5, and Matt Painter's squad checks in with the third-highest implied total at just a shade over 80. That means that Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn ($9,100) should both be a part of your builds in mass entry, and there might be room to stack in a few as well, as the duo will work together in pick-and-roll situations. Purdue hasn't played a team ranked as low on KenPom since mid-January, and High Point checks in with a defensive efficiency of 227th. High Point doesn't force turnovers or block shots well, leaving more room for Smith to feast across the board. The first-team All-American averaged 16.1 points, 8.7 assists and 4.6 rebounds this year and has been below 20 points on DraftKings only once in 33 games, with a ceiling in the 50s.
RJ Luis, G/F, St. John's ($9,400)
St. John's, entering with the day's second-highest implied total, is a nightmare matchup for Omaha. While Omaha rebounds surprisingly well on the defensive end, it allows opponents to convert on 53.5 percent of two-point baskets, good for No. 283 in the country. The Mavericks play at an above-average tempo with a defensive efficiency all the way down at 252 (per KenPom) -- the combo you want for DFS. Meanwhile, the Red Storm get 59.7 percent of their points from two-point range, the third-highest mark in the country. In steps Luis, the Big East Player of the Year who does most of his damage around the basket and in mid-range. He's averaging 36.5 DK points/game and a 30.1 percent usage rate over his last five, while coming off a 47.0 DK point game against Creighton in the Big East Championship. Few floors are safer in the opening round, and Luis also gives you dual G/F eligibility. While Luis is my preference, both Kadary Richmond ($9,500) and Zuby Ejiofor ($8,600) should get sprinkled in if you're doing a mass-entry.
Middle Tier
Vladislav Goldin, F, Michigan ($7,800)
Goldin has been priced as high as $9,600 this season, but he's coming off a down game against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament final. But in the prior six games, he's had 30 or more DK points in each to go along with a stellar usage rate of 28 percent or greater, peaking with 29 real-life points against a tough Michigan State defense. UC San Diego has an offensive rebounding rate outside of the country's top-300 and no regular rotation players taller than 6-8. It's also a narrow -2.5 point spread, so Goldin should have to battle the whole game. Backup Sam Walters (back) hasn't played since early-February, either, so Goldin should still see plenty of run even if Michigan pulls away late.
John Poulakidas, G, Yale ($6,900)
Maybe this is me stretching to get at least one mid-major recommendation in here, or maybe I'm trying too hard to find this year's Jack Gohlke (like I called in last year's DFS preview). If there's anyone who fits the bill, it's Poulakidas, as he's Yale's leader in usage rate over the last five games -- a span over which he's attempted eight three-pointers per contest. You might even remember Poulakidas from last year's tournament when he scored 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting (6-9 3Pt) to help Yale knock off Auburn in the opening round. Texas A&M has a defense that's statistically similar to last year's Auburn squad in terms of efficiency, but lacks significantly when it comes to defending the arc. The Aggies check in at No. 154 nationally, with opponents shooting 33.4 percent from distance. This could mean another big day for Poulakidas, who had 37.8 DK points in the Ivy League final against Cornell.
Viktor Lakhin, F, Clemson ($6,400)
Lakhin finds himself at his lowest price since Feb. 8, but in the nine games since, he's averaged 29.8 DK points, which is good for 4.66x at Thursday's mark. He's peaked at 42.5, going over 30 seven times in that stretch. Clemson faces a McNeese team that defends the paint relatively well, but also has a defensive rebounding rate that checks in at 259th in the country. That bodes well for the senior averaging career-bests in scoring and rebounding, as long as he can avoid foul trouble.
College Basketball DFS Value Plays
Pricing was done very well (read: tight) for this contest, as the slew of mid-major value plays that typically presents itself just isn't here for the opening round. Nonetheless, we still have a decent list of options below $5k to help fill out your lineups and pack in the talent above.
Fletcher Loyer, G, Purdue ($5,000)
Loyer also has a price near the season's low point after getting shut out from distance in two of his last three, but he's also not too far removed from a game against Rutgers in which he cashed seven three-pointers en route to 33.5 DK points. Purdue has the highest implied total on the slate against a High Point defense that ranks 227th in efficiency (per KenPom) and 121st at defending the arc. Loyer is a great way to get a piece of the Boilermakers without paying $9k+ for Smith or Kaufman-Renn.
Ben Gregg, F, Gonzaga ($4,100)
Inconsistency makes Gregg a GPP target, but I couldn't quite tell you why he's at his lowest price of the season. Perhaps logging just 11 minutes in the WCC Final against St. Mary's will turn people away, but he had 35.5 DK points just two games earlier and five other games of 30-plus on the season. Gregg should return to the starting lineup in the tournament's opening round, and he could be especially productive if Graham Ike finds himself in foul trouble -- which he can be prone to do -- while battling down low against Georgia's Asa Newell.
Dallin Hall, G, BYU ($4,000)
Shoutout to Eric Rasmussen (@Razzle11Grinds on X) for leading me on to this easy value play on Tuesday's XM show, but anyone crunching the numbers is bound to see Hall pop up at some point. He doesn't start for BYU, which might turn some off, but he's a near-lock for 20-plus minutes at a bottom-barrel price, and the third-year guard produces across the board. He was shut down by Houston in the Big 12 tournament, but Houston is a difficult matchup for anyone. In the eight games prior, he averaged 10.6 points, 4.9 assists and 2.5 rebounds, with a floor of 11.0 DK points and a ceiling of 33.8.
These might fall more in the "punt play" category, but Trevin Knell ($3,700) and Michael Ajayi ($3,700) are two more boom-or-bust options who are best-suited for GPPs.
Agree with these value-play recommendations? Give them a spin in the RotoWire College Basketball DFS Lineup Optimizer.
