NBA Finals Predictions: RotoWire's 2024 Mega-Roundtable

This article is part of our NBA Roundtable series.

The Finals are here! Game 1 between the Mavericks and Celtics is set for Thursday, June 6. To get ready for the series, much of the RotoWire NBA crew participated in a roundtable, answering questions about the matchup. The questions were as follows:

1. Who is winning the NBA Finals? And in how many games?
2. Who will have the biggest impact on the outcome of the Finals?
3. Whose legacy changes the most with a win?
4. How would a Finals loss change each team's direction?
5. Boston is -215 favorites for the title, while Dallas is +175. In recent years, the series most closely matching those odds are 2021 (PHX -180; MIL +160) and 2016 (GSW -220; CLE +180). Given the historical context, do you think this year's odds are accurate?
6. What is your favorite bet for the series that isn't the straight-up winner? For example, something like Series Total Games over/under 5.5, or Luka Doncic rebounds leader (+180).
7. Any other additional Finals thoughts?

Let's get to it!

Nick Whalen

1. Celtics in 6 games.
2. Kyrie Irving. At this point, we know what we can pencil in Luka Doncic for, but it's going to be Irving who ultimately determines how difficult this series will be for Boston. Barring another PJ Washington Series, the Mavs will likely need 25-30 points per game out of Irving just to hang in with Boston, which has significantly more depth and reliable rotation pieces. Obviously, the Celtics will need their stars to play well, but part of what makes them so dangerous is they can survive off nights from Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Dallas can't do the same if Irving struggles. 
3. This is a great question with so many viable answers. The obvious one is Luka Doncic, who would catapult himself into an even higher stratosphere with a Finals win at age 25. Even if the Celtics win, the general refrain will be that Luka will be back, but that's far from a given in a Western Conference that's not getting any easier. Much like Giannis Antetokounmpo winning with Milwaukee in 2021, Doncic locking in a title at this stage of his career would essentially cement his legacy and insulate him from the inevitable criticism that follows an all-time great who's never won a title. Of course, there's also a case to be made for Jayson Tatum. He's the best player on the best team and would also lock in his place as one of the greatest players of his generation. But the Celtics winning would feel like more of a "collective" championship by way of superior talent and team-building. That's not to say a ring wouldn't boost Tatum's profile, but if the Celtics win the series it's hard to imagine it will feel like Tatum dragged them there.

Three other names who deserve mention:

Kyrie Irving: Irving already has a ring in Cleveland, but winning in Dallas would vault him into a higher tier when it comes to ranking guards all-time. It would also mark the end of a bizarre-but-captivating redemption arc for Irving, though almost all of the damage he inflicted on his reputation was self-inflicted. If we're picking nits, the one knock on Irving is he would once again be the clear second-best player on a title team.

Jrue Holiday: Like Horford, Holiday has a chance to add to his profile as one of the best complementary players of his era. Holiday has never made an All-NBA team, despite six All-Defensive nods, so he's probably not a Hall of Fame candidate, but a second ring could at least make it a discussion.

Al Horford: One of the great super-role-players of his generation. Only LeBron James has played in more playoff games among active players. A title would be the cherry on top of one of the best "really good but not a Hall-of-Famer" careers in recent history.

4. In terms of salaries, both teams are uniquely positioned to essentially run it back next season, should they choose to do so. Coming in as an underdog, the Mavs are unlikely to make a drastic shake-up with a loss, but if the Celtics come up short with this roster, it's possible changes could be made. In that scenario, it's probably Jaylen Brown whose seat would be the hottest.

5. I think the series price seems about right, giving Boston roughly a 70% implied chance to win. While the Mavs have the best player, the Celtics have the vastly superior roster which can bail out their best players on an off night. Dallas does not have that luxury.  

6. Finals spread: Celtics -1.5 games +100 (DraftKings). Boston has displayed enough vulnerability against shaky Eastern Conference teams for me to believe the Mavs will make this a series, but Boston can survive a couple of missteps and take care of business. At +100, I'll take the Celtics in 4, 5 or 6.

Alex Barutha

1. Celtics in 7. I really, really want to pick Dallas. Doncic has been otherworldly, and the whole team plays with so much passion. Yes, Boston has only lost two games on the way here, and Porzingis has been out for the past two rounds. But they really let Indiana hang around, and the series against the Cavs wasn't exactly the pushover it was made out to be, especially with Donovan Mitchell missing two games. But all reports indicate Porzingis will be locked and loaded for Game 1, and that gives Boston the flexibility on offense and defense they need.
2. Kristaps Porzingis. I would 100% pick the Mavericks to win it all if Porzingis was out. I'm also just resigned to Luka's greatness. I don't think anyone is really stopping him. So, it's about taking other guys out. Dereck Lively was such a massive part of Dallas' victory over Minnesota that I believe the biggest chess moves will be how Boston handles him on offense and defense. That all starts with Porzingis. Can he stop Lively at the rim? And can he space him away from the basket?
3. Luka Doncic. I understand the Tatum angle, but I have a minority opinion on this -- I don't believe the collective opinion on him will change with a title. He's been a Top 6 MVP finisher for three straight seasons, making the Finals twice in the past three years while playing in one of the most prominent media markets in sports. It's no secret to anyone exactly where Tatum fits in the NBA hierarchy. It reminds me of a blend between Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki. People hardly care KD has two titles. Why? He was too heavy of a favorite with those Warriors teams (and also because of weird Twitter beef and switching teams all the time, but let's put that aside and think about where he was in his career when he won those). People care Dirk has a title, but more so in the "really happy he got one; he deserved it" sort of way and not the "now we have to have an entirely new discussion on who he is" sort of way.
   Alright, so why Luka then? Because people will call Luka the best player in the NBA and mean it. The legacy leap from Doncic going from the second-best player in the league to the best player in the league is much bigger than the leap than Tatum going from No. 7 to No. 4, or however you want to slice it. Doncic is the only player in the NBA right now (I'm very quietly putting aside Wembanyama) that has a hope of catching LeBron in terms of raw numbers, titles, MVPs -- general greatness -- and that would truly start right now, in this NBA Finals. And what a way to begin by probably averaging nearly 30/10/10 and taking down a 64-win team.
4. I don't think it changes much for either team. This Boston team will probably be the favorites again if they bring back the same squad (which seems likely). Meanwhile, Dallas would be ecstatic to get a full year with this new group. Ideally, they add some more reliable guys on the wing, but maybe they can swing something relatively small in free agency or the draft.
5. The 2016 Finals angle makes a lot of sense to me. Both of those teams were essentially just better versions of the Mavs and Celtics in the sense that Golden State had a dominant record and better overall roster, but Cleveland had LeBron and Kyrie.
6. Mavericks +1.5 games (-120). I would be surprised if the Mavericks lost in five games, despite how good Boston is. At this point, I just trust Dallas to stay extremely competitive.

Kirien Sprecher

I'm taking Dallas in 7 and parlaying that with Luka Doncic winning Finals MVP (+200).

By every advanced metric, this Boston team is historically good, but Luka is the best player on the planet and getting plus-money seems like an easy value play. Looking back at Milwaukee (+160) in 2021 and Cleveland (+180) in 2016, Giannis and LeBron were easily the best players going up against better all-around teams and carried their squads to victory on the back of ridiculous individual performances. I like betting on Luka to do the same this year. I feel like Tatum got too much heat for losing to the Warriors in 2022, but his legacy will rightfully take a hit if he can't lead Boston to its first Larry O'Brien Trophy since 2008 this time around. With that said, Tatum is still only 26. I'd bet money he'll be back on this stage again, though it may not be in Celtic Green.

Ken Crites

1.  Celtics in 7. This is going to be a barn burner.  I can't wait to watch the top defensive backcourt versus the best offensive backcourt.  If Boston can get 5+ games out of Porzingis, they'll win the Series.

2. Jaylen Brown.  It will be Brown's defense, not his offense, that swings things in favor of Boston. Luka will get a healthy dose of D from Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derek White, but I bet Doncic faces the 6-foot-6, 225 pound Brown the most often.  I'm not saying Brown will stop Luka, but he'll slow him down enough for the Celtics to have a few big scoring runs.

3. Jayson Tatum.   All those First-Team All-NBA selections (3 so far) don't mean a thing without that ring.  And anything short of Banner 18 (19? 20?) means Tatum is stuck taking a back seat to all the other Celtic greats.

4. For Dallas, no change. This team has already exceeded expectations.  They'll make some off-season tweaks, but they'd be crazy not to run it back with this squad.  Imagine what they can do with a full off-season of planning and practice?  The arrow still points up.

As for Boston, a loss would be devastating, as this entire season has been a Championship Or Bust mission. With that said, Boston doesn't have much room to make changes as Tatum, Brown, Holiday and Porzingis are signed for two-plus more years and Derrick White has one more year left on his deal. It probably would take a Dallas sweep for coach Joe Mazzulla to get canned.

5. I'm way too much of a Boston homer to wisely judge these odds. Sorry. Go Celtics!

6. I'll take the OVER on 5.5 games. Dallas is on a heater. They believe. And Porzingis' health is a legit concern. The young, spry combo of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively could make life tough for 37-year-old Al Horford.  (I still love you, Big Al!)

7.  In one of these games, Sam Hauser will catch fire and hit four-plus triples. Dallas ranked a mediocre 17th in Opponent's 3PT% (36.6%). And look for Jrue Holiday to bully Kyrie Irving on the block when he gets a chance.

Steve Alexander

1. Dallas in 7
2. Luka Doncic
3. Kyrie Irving
4. Dallas no impact, other than Luka getting ready to completely dominate the league for the next 10 years. Boston would just be super disappointed but shouldn't change up a formula that works. They just have to hope they avoid a Luka Doncic buzzsaw next time around.
5. The odds make sense but don't take into account the fact that Luka and Kyrie are jiving at the right time. Can Boston's elite defensive backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White figure out how to do slow Luka down (something no other team has done all year)?
6. Jaylen Brown series scoring leader +1500. Realistic chance to hit and great pay off if he can outscore Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Juan Carlos Blanco

1. I like the Celtics in six games. While Luka and Kyrie are undeniably on a roll, Boston has the deeper and more consistent offensive arsenal, not to mention the better overall defense, even taking Dallas' very strong postseason showing in that regard. The Celts also recorded wins in both regular-season meetings despite Luka and Kyrie playing in both, and the return of Porzingis will be a very important added bonus that by extension makes Boston's second unit even better.
2. I believe Jayson Tatum will put this Celtics team on his shoulders, partly fueled by past postseason disappointments, the urgency stemming from that and the fact he's received some criticism for not yet having won a championship.
3. I'd have to say Tatum, considering my belief he'll make the biggest impact in the series and that a championship is the one thing missing from his resume at this point.
4. A Finals loss for the Mavericks would crystallize the fact that they'll need a true "Big 3" to take the next step in their quest for a title. A loss for the Celtics would arguably be more devastating than the same scenario for Dallas, given how all in the team was this season and the offseason additions of Jrue Holiday and Porzingis. However, there wouldn't seemingly be much for Boston to do but to make a couple of minor complementary personnel adjustments and take another stab at the title, given how loaded the starting five already is.
5. I'd say the odds are about right. I wouldn't make the Celtics a bigger favorite than they already are because Dallas has earned respect after their run through the West, and Luka and Kyrie are megastars whose presence is enough to give their team a chance to upset any club.
6. A series spread of Celtics -1.5 games (+100 or better). I'm keeping it simple while still getting plus money on the price and holding true to my series prediction of Celtics in six.
7. As just an additional general observation, I'd note that Porzingis has had plenty of time to get to 100 percent, while Doncic has been struggling with knee and ankle issues. The extra rest leading into this series naturally helps, but those are the type of nagging injuries that may not be fully healed until the offseason. He's done a masterful job playing through them at an elite level, yet this is an extremely tough defensive assignment that awaits, one that could be made all the more difficult if he's not truly 100 percent. And for what it's worth, while the Celtics' three-game cumulative rest advantage in the postseason won't mean much in Game 1, it could actually make at least a slight difference in closely contested second halves later in the series. 

Paul Martinez

1. Mavericks in 6. Boston has the experience and the depth, but Dallas will have the two most impactful players in the series. Luka will be Luka and Kyrie will thrive on the revenge factor. Meanwhile, the Celtics will take some time to wipe the sleep out of their eyes after cakewalking through the first three rounds of the playoffs.
2. Kyrie Irving. Luka will be the best player on the court, but Irving's always been that guy whose sheer talent can turn the tide of a game (or a series). I expect Irving to elevate his game to its top floor given the revenge narrative and the opportunity for a second ring. He's 32, so there's no guarantee another chance will come along.
3. Jayson Tatum, but only if he gets a win AND a Finals MVP award. He's probably the best player in the NBA right now who's never really mentioned in conversations about the best player. A dominant Finals and championship could change that, but a loss—or even having Jaylen Brown steal the spotlight again—could cement his status as a superstar who won't be remembered as generational.
4. The Celtics are pretty much locked into their current roster and, given their regular-season dominance, are probably going to simply run it back next year (with a few minor tweaks, of course) regardless of the Finals outcome. Dallas' direction isn't likely to change much either, win or lose. The Mavs have done an outstanding job adding pieces to complement Luka and Kyrie and would probably be best served giving the roster more time to gel over the course of a full season, even with a Finals loss.
5. Given my prediction of a Dallas championship, I definitely think the Mavs are being underrated.
6. P.J. Washington, OVER 11.8 PPG. He's scored in double digits in 15 of the Mavericks' 17 playoff games against some tough defenses and averaged 16.0 points against Boston over two contests during the regular season. Luka and Kyrie should be great, but they'll need some help in the frontcourt given the quality of Boston's backcourt defenders, and Washington is the leading candidate to step up, as he's been the team's third-best scorer in the postseason.
7. The biggest X-factor in the series may not be a player, but rather the schedule. Doncic has been hobbled by knee and ankle injuries throughout the postseason, but if the lengthy time off before the first game of the Finals helps mend those issues, he should be even more dangerous. 

Alex Rikleen

1. Celtics in 6. (And, if not 6, I'd guess 5, not 7)

2. Derrick White. Luka Doncic is (obviously) the best player in the series, and he'll probably average 30-plus, but the Celtics perimeter defense, led by White, preventing Doncic from averaging 40-plus will be key.

3. Tatum or Luka have a ton on the line, but the answer is actually Jaylen Brown. 

 - Door A: Celtics fall short (again), and the trade rumors become so constant and omnipresent that they'll update the Trade Machine to come pre-loaded with Brown entered on one side; Boston fans will remember him the way they do Antoine Walker (except possibly even worse, due to Brown's record-setting contract and his affinity for Kyrie Irving).

 - Door B: He's the second-best player on a title team, joining a group that currently includes names like John Havlicek, Kevin McHale, and Paul Pierce; he'll get his number retired no matter what happens the rest of his career; not only is he celebrated in Boston for the rest of his life, but he'll get more benefit of doubt when it comes to future All-Star and All-NBA ballots, a critical shift for a player constantly on the border of inclusion for such honors - those extra awards, plus the ring, dramatically improve his chances at the Hall of Fame. 

Antoine Walker with more baggage, or his number in rafters and a real chance at the Hall of Fame.

4. If the Celtics lose, trading away Brown starts to feel inevitable (assuming a normal series and a relatively healthy Porzingis). Coming away with no rings after six ECF appearances in eight seasons, especially after such a dominant regular season, almost demands a major shift. If the Mavericks lose, it all depends on how Doncic reacts. The Mavericks probably *should* feel great about their progress and positioning for the future, regardless of who wins the Finals - but if Doncic disagrees, then they *need* to react accordingly.

5. The historical comparisons are interesting but irrelevant. These odds are where they should be.

6. Luka Doncic to average 35+ points through the finals, +450

Doncic averaged 34 points this season. He just averaged 32.4 against this season's best defense. He averaged exactly 35 against Boston during the regular season. Don't get me wrong, averaging 35-plus against the NBA's second-best defense won't be easy, but the implied odds of +450 (18%) feels way too low.  

7. The NBA had a great regular season. The In-Season Tournament was a smashing success. Tanking was (by recent standards) at a minimum. Most teams were still competing for playoff positioning through to the final game. If the Celtics lose, all of that good regular season moment instantly evaporates. This Celtics team was an historic regular season juggernaut - depending on which stat you're looking at, they often measure favorably against some of the best Jordan-Bulls, Curry-Warriros, and Duncan-Spurs squads. If they lose in the finals to 5-seed, the "regular season doesn't matter" discourse will reach a fever pitch. And rightly so. We would be on a stretch of six straight champions where the recipe was "have a top-3ish player and stay healthy through the playoffs", with three of the last four champions going to 3-seeds or lower. Many already consider the NBA regular season borderline irrelevant. A Celtics loss would be devastating to that already bad reputation.

Dan Bruno

1. Mavs in 6 

2. Irving

3. Makes Doncic, breaks Tatum 

4. Back at it. Jaylen Brown might leave. 

5. Take the Mavs

6. Doncic Finals MVP 

7. Definitely aware this is a stretch but considering what they just did to the Wolves, are the Celtics going to be able to do much different to stop Doncic and Irving? Who has the finishing instinct? Can Tatum and Brown live up to the pressure? Mavs pesky defenders emerging and proving themselves as they go. Irving will cause anxiousness in the crowd because they will go nuts booing him and he willl definitely counter with some tough plays. Hense greatest impact. Not sure anyone is going to stop Luka getting the MVP after he averaged 35, 15 and 12 over two meetings this season.

Joel Bartilotta

1. Celtics in 5 Games

2. Jrue Holiday. The statistics might not say that but his defense on Luka and Kyrie is going to be critical for the Celtics, along with his leadership and experience. 

3. Jayson Tatum. This feels like an obvious pick because the hatred towards JT would be out of control if Boston ends up losing this series. 

4. A loss wouldn't change much for Dallas. If Boston does lose, there would be some serious questions, but I believe they would stand pat because they still have the best starting lineup in the NBA. It's boring analysis, but any team that reaches the Finals doesn't need to change much. 

5. I actually think Boston should be a bigger favorite (-300). Many people seem to be overrating Dallas after they beat Minnesota in five games, but they were fortunate to play inexperienced teams like Minnesota and OKC after facing a Clippers team without Kawhi Leonard. Everyone is talking about how easy Boston's road has been, but they have a 12-2 record in the postseason!

6. Jayson Tatum Finals MVP -115. It was shocking to see Jaylen Brown win ECF MVP after Tatum had much better numbers, and there's no chance they screw over Tatum again if the averages play out like they did.

7. Our society has morphed into this instant gratification bubble where everyone becomes a prisoner of the moment, and that's what feels like is happening here. The most recent thing that everyone saw was Dallas dominating in a road game to reach the Finals, but it's almost like people are forgetting how special this Celtics team has been. Boston had an absurd 64-18 record during the regular season and has only lost two games in these playoffs. They also had a 37-4 record at home this season, while beating the Mavs in four straight matchups by at least nine points apiece! I hear so many people saying they don't trust Boston, but a team with a 76-20 record shouldn't be facing this much disrespect. 

Henry Weinberg

1. Mavs in 6
2. Luka Doncic is going to get his regardless, therefore my answer is Kyrie Irving. He was 12-for-31 from two across the final 3 games versus Oklahoma City prior to flipping the switch versus Minnesota. Boston is equipped to stop him and know him well. Kyrie's production is instrumental balance.
3. Luka Doncic. The "Nikola Jokic GOAT center" conversation ramped up considerably after his 1st ring. You can already make an argument that Doncic is a top-3 PnR maestro ever, joining the likes of Steve Nash and Magic Johnson — but a ring would cement his legacy significantly. Doncic destroyed Minnesota 1-on-2 or 2-on-3 and now has a chance to carve up three of league's top-four defenses in succession this postseason.
4. Dallas has this core locked up — which was likely a huge underlying factor in acquiring PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. Their future feels secure. Boston is so cap tied that it's hard to see substantial changes in 2024-25 for them either. That being said, this finals would likely be the nail in the coffin for Tatum officially being deemed insufficient as an A1 championship-leading player.

Free space: Lately, Dallas has turned to Jaden Hardy over Tim Hardaway and Dante Exum. Hardy has the most chemistry with the bigs, and I imagine Dallas will look to test Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford early in the series. If Boston's offense mandates Exum over Hardy, that is bad news for the production of Payton Pritchard.

Mitchell Hansen

1. Celtics in 7. This series will go back and forth and have plenty of games decided by single digits, but I ultimately believe Boston will be able to come out on top in a winner-take-all Game 7. 
2. Kyrie Irving. With Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown displaying their star power for Boston, Luka Doncic will step up in the Finals like we have seen all postseason thus far. That is why it is important for Kyrie Irving to leave his mark on the Finals while being the second option alongside Doncic to counter Tatum and Brown on the other end. Irving stepped up in the Western Conference Finals and helped Dallas become a feared team when he and Doncic are both playing well. He will have the biggest impact on this series in helping the Mavericks try and pull off the upset. 
3. Jayson Tatum. Tatum has already put together an impressive resume and career at just the age of 26, but one thing left for him to accomplish is an NBA title. If Tatum is able to cross that line and claim a championship, he will take the next step in his career and his legacy will continue to grow. Of all the players playing in this series, Tatum has the most to gain if he is able to lead the Celtics to a title. 
4. Boston: A loss in the Finals likely won't change much for the Celtics moving forward, but if they don't come out on top after being the best team in the league all season long, questions will start to swirl of whether or not this collection of players currently on the Boston roster will be able to cross that finish line. Boston would still return next season as one of the top teams in the league, but it feels like this is its chance to finally secure a championship, otherwise that window to do so could start to close soon. Dallas: Regardless of the outcome of the Finals, the Mavericks opened eyes this season and have stormed onto the scene in the playoffs. If they win the championship, that belief in the Mavericks will continue to grow. But even if Dallas loses, it still has a very bright future moving forward and could make yet another deep postseason run next year with Doncic at the helm. 
5.  I believe the opening odds are relatively accurate and should reflect what we see happen in this championship series. I do believe Boston would be larger favorites if it faced tougher — or maybe healthier — competition in the playoffs to this point. That is where I believe a bit of hesitation lies with oddsmakers as the Celtics open a series against a fully healthy Dallas squad for the first time this playoffs. In the end, I think this series will be a close one, going the full seven games.  
6. Total Games Over/Under: 5.5: This bet is an easy one to me in that I would hammer the over. I predicted this series would go a full seven games, but I think it will at least go six games, meaning this bet is a simple one to me. If you're putting money down on this line specifically, go with the over. 

Cullum Brownbridge

1. Celtics in 6. Best team in the regular season, 12-2 record in the playoffs (albeit against a weak and injury-depleted Eastern Conference). I think Luka and the Mavs take game one, which is going to send the media into a frenzy, but Boston bounces back winning four of the next five.

2. Jayson Tatum, and how much control he has on the offensive end of the floor. The Celtics' offense hums when Tatum is picking his spots and not forcing the issue. If he can create opportunities for his teammates by drawing the Mavs' defense with him (and withstand the temptation to take a contested fadeaway early in the shot clock), then Boston will have an excellent chance to win this series. 

3. Tatum is the obvious one here, but I'll also put forward Irving. Being able to win a second championship, and one without LeBron, is going to catapult Irving into the all-time great PG conversation (if he's not already there). Honorable mention to Al Horford, who would break out of "most playoff games without a ring" conversation that is headlined by the Jazz duo of Stockton and Malone.

4. Boston is essentially committed to this roster for next year, unless Brad Stevens wants to make wholesale changes (maybe Cassell takes over at HC if Boston collapses). Dallas could look to bundle the salaries of Washington, Gafford and Kleiber to get back a big-time superstar in the offseason (could they figure out a trade or sign-and-trade for someone like Siakam? Jimmy Buckets? Maybe a piece like Evan Mobley?). Also, Dallas has new ownership, so they could be aggressive in the offseason should they not win the title (though I think the pieces they have compliment Luka and Irving quite well).

5. It's interesting that, in the two series mentioned, the underdog won. It really does feel like 2016 Golden State vs. Cleveland, with Kyrie + a generational superstar vs. the winningest team in the league (who themselves had a hard path to the finals, down 3-1 to OKC in the conference finals). Those two series went at least six games, and I anticipate this upcoming Finals to do so as well. With bias, I hope the favorite wins this time around...

6. I like the over on Jrue Holiday 12.5 points per game. He really came into his own in the Pacers series. Given he's the only Celtics player with a ring, his experience is going to be invaluable. I expect him to be more aggressive in stretches where Tatum, Brown and White are struggling with their shot.

7. While I think Boston's rotation is going to stay short, I'm curious how Mazulla utilizes his big man rotation. Porzingis will certainly be on a minutes restriction to begin the series (if he even plays), and Horford has played a lot in his absence (the nine-day break will definitely help). I'm curious if Kornet and/or Tillman see more playing time this series to match height with Gafford and Lively (to at least help with defensive rebounding), or if Brissett makes another appearance in small-ball lineups (maybe Tatum plays the five?). Also, how much will Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard play? Hauser has struggled with his shot this postseason, and while Pritchard gives the Celtics a spark plug on offense, I feel like he's going to be hunted on defense (he plays hard and picks his spots, but I feel he'll struggle against Luka and Kyrie).

Joe Mayo

1. Dallas in 7. This series is going to be competitive regardless of who wins. The Celtics have been arguably the best team all season on both ends of the floor and their depth is no joke. However, neither is the backcourt tandem of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. This Mavericks team has been battle-tested throughout the playoffs, which you cannot say about the Celtics in their playoff run. The fact they have two closers bodes incredibly well for them, and I believe they will find a way to win in what lines up to be a very competitive series. 

2. Kyrie Irving. Kyrie's ability to score and generate successful touches for his teammates will be crucial for the Mavericks, especially with Jrue Holiday challenging him on defense. Jrue has been known as a defensive juggernaut for years, especially in the 2021 NBA Finals with the Bucks against the Suns. Luka is going to get his offensively, regardless of if it's Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum guarding him. Kyrie is going to need to find ways to impact the Mavs offensively if he is struggling to score, and Kyrie versus Jrue is going to be a marquee matchup in this series. 

3. Jayson Tatum. I feel the answer here is pretty clear. If the Celtics cannot get it done the question surrounding the team until at least the end of next season will be: can they ever get it done? However, with a win, Tatum will join the ranks of Giannis and Jokic as guys whose playoff success was questioned recently until they won a ring. If he takes the Celtics to banner 18, Tatum further legitimizes his impressive career and propels himself into the list of Celtics greats. 

4. Boston: The Celtics really don't have any extremely notable free agents moving into the 2024-25 season; however, a loss would mean media and fans alike questioning the trajectory of the team. I think the Celtics will still run it back next year if they lose, but questions will continue swirling about whether Tatum and Brown will ever get it done together, possibly leading to a huge trade. 

Dallas: The Mavericks are obviously an amazing team, but if they hadn't made it to the Finals, nobody would have been surprised. A Finals loss would mean they run it back next season and possibly add more depth to help get them through the Western Conference, which is always going to be a challenge. 

5. After Boston's regular season success, I believe the odds are fairly accurate. However, I do think that Dallas is still underrated, and the series is going to be close, win or lose. 

6. Luka Doncic Series Leader [Total Points] (-205). In my opinion, this is an obvious bet to hammer. Luka is a scoring machine, and win or lose, he is going to have a successful series. He's been a professional basketball player since joining the EuroLeague at the age of 16. He's a seasoned pro and bound to lead his team in scoring in a competitive series. 

If I had to give more of my favorite bets for the series I would look at: 

Kyrie Irving APG Over 4.6 (-115) - Kyrie has beat or tied this mark in every series this playoffs. With Jrue Holiday and Derrick White likely being his primary defenders, he is going to have to move the rock and get his teammates involved more often than not. 

Jaylen Brown 3s/Game Over 1.7 (-115) - He's beat this mark in every series this playoffs, making 2.5 3s/Game in the Indiana Series and shooting an efficient 37 percent. 

7. We know that the Celtics' depth has been a big part of their success this season, but I'm curious how much they actually utilize this against the Mavericks. With Porzingis still working back from his right soleus strain and Luke Kornet's concerns with his wrist, how do the Celtics manage their rotation at center with Kornet and Al Horford? Payton Pritchard has looked impressive in this playoff run, but Sam Hauser has really struggled the last two series. The Celtics could look to tighten up their lineup even further, especially if Hauser continues to struggle to start the series. Lastly, the Mavs' centers have been extremely productive, how much does Gafford and Lively's playoff success play into these rotations and can they continue their solid play?