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Best Bets
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook
Nikola Vucevic under 0.5 blocks (-160) at Miami
3:06 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Vucevic and his phone-book vertical leap is blocking just 0.4 shots per regular-season game since the All-Star break and has two total blocks since March 20 (he blocked one shot in the Play-In Game against the Raptors). Opposing centers against the Heat have blocked the second-fewest shots all season, so this is a situation where I'm comfortable fading Vucevic, even with -160 juice.
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Max Strus over 2.5 threes (+120) vs. Bulls
3:06 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The Bulls have allowed the second-most corner three-point attempts since the All-Star break, only behind, ironically, the Heat. Strus takes 21% of his shots from the corner and launched five threes in 24 minutes during the Play-In Game against the Hawks. He also hit 3.7 threes in 30.3 minutes per game in three matchups against Chicago during the regular season. The man has one job. I think he'll be able to stay on the court more, as the Heat should be able to hide him defensively on Beverley, Caruso and Patrick Williams. Getting plus money on this is really nice.
Alex Caruso over 0.5 three-pointers (-185) and over 0.5 turnovers (-250) at Miami
3:07 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is sort of a bet on Caruso's minutes, but there are statistical indicators that point in this direction. As mentioned before, the Heat have allowed the most corner three-point attempts since the All-Star break, and Caruso is prolific from that spot for a point guard, taking 24% of his looks from the side. Beverley's percentage is actually higher (26%), but I trust his workload less. On the turnover front, the Heat have forced the sixth-highest turnover rate since the break, and Caruso turns the ball over on 17% of his used possessions -- highest on Chicago behind only Andre Drummond (never a good sign when you're in that company). When seeing at least 30 minutes this season, Caruso has averaged 1.7 giveaways.
Bam Adebayo over 2.5 turnovers (+150) vs. Bulls
3:08 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This isn't an easy number to bet with Adebayo coming off a zero-turnover game against the Hawks, but he finished the season averaging exactly 2.5 TOVs. With the Bulls forcing the fourth-most turnovers since the All-Star break, Adebayo could slip up, and he actually averaged 3.7 giveaways against Chicago during three regular-season matchups. Getting plus money on this helps ease some concerns.
Kyle Lowry leading scorer of game (+10,000) vs. Bulls
3:08 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Whoever said lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot wasn't offered odds on that. Lowry is coming off a ridiculous 33-point performance against the Hawks in an attempt to save Miami, which came up short. Will he lead the game in scoring again? Probably not. But would he lead this game in scoring once if it was played 100 times? I'd bet on yes. And that's the reasoning here.
