This article is part of our NBA Barometer series.
Welcome to RotoWire's NBA power rankings. While not necessarily based directly on likelihood of winning a championship, that is the main criteria for determining the top 2-3 teams. Outside of the top tier, performance in relation to preseason expectations is a big factor. Week-to-week momentum will also have a large impact on the rankings.
All stats are accurate through Nov. 14's In-Season Tournament games. All teams except the Sacramento Kings have played at least 10 games.
1. Denver Nuggets
Record: 9-2 Preseason O/U: 52.5 wins Current O/U: 55.5
Odds for Division: -400 | Odds for Conference: +210 | Odds for Champion: +450 |
Confidence Interval: 8/10 | Confidence Interval: 8/10 | Confidence Interval 9/10 |
The Nuggets are currently first in the West with losses to Minnesota and the upstart Rockets, while the Big-4 Clippers pushed them to the final possession Tuesday. Playing without Jamal Murray (hamstring) for upcoming weeks remains a test, but Reggie Jackson has been sharp, and it creates an opportunity for Michael Porter to step up. Jokic is still the best player in basketball, and he's the factor that keeps Denver over Boston in these rankings. There is nobody I'd rather have executing my offense at the end of games than Jokic.
2. Boston Celtics
Record: 8-2 Preseason O/U: 55.5 wins Current O/U: 56.5
Odds for Division: -400 | Odds for Conference: +155 | Odds for Champion: +380 |
Confidence Interval: 10/10 | Confidence Interval: 9/10 | Confidence Interval 9/10 |
The Celtics have the third-best offense and second-best defense in basketball. Boston's late-game execution still needs work, but that's been Jayson Tatum's issue in postseason contexts as well, so Boston might as well suffer through growth at this juncture instead.
Tatum's 52.6 percent shooting is a career-best mark. Kristaps Porzingis posting 56.5/40.8/83.9 percent shooting while protecting the rim and switching on the perimeter anchors the best lineup in basketball. Boston's starters have outscored opponents by 40.9 points per 100 possessions through 283 possessions.
Jrue Holiday has been quiet but effective offensively. He and Derrick White form the best shooting backcourt of the Tatum-Brown era in what has been a rapid shooting rise for White. Sam Hauser has been automatic as well, connecting on 42.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers. His performance has helped compensate for Payton Pritchard shooting just 22.6 percent from deep.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 8-2 Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins Current O/U: 48.5
Odds for Division: +425 | Odds for Conference: +1400 | Odds for Champion: +3000 |
Confidence Interval: 7/10 | Confidence Interval: 7/10 | Confidence Interval 6/10 |
Owners of the best defense in the league, Minnesota is allowing just 101.9 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Edwards led the offense while Karl-Anthony Towns struggled early, but now Towns is heating up. The duo was clutch in back-to-back wins over Golden State in recent days, with Edwards continuing to grow as a decision-maker. Another quality win was earned against the full-strength Nuggets Nov. 1.
Heavy reliance on age-36 Mike Conley is a gamble, but he's a key orchestrator, and he's canning 45.5 percent of 4.4 threes per game. Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker round out a good rotation. Minnesota beat Boston with Karl-Anthony Towns playing terribly. The size of Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels creates problems for Golden State and Dallas while matching up well against Joel Embiid and the 76ers.
Minnesota has eight combined games remaining against the Wizards, Trail Blazers and Pistons. Hitting 49 wins would entail taking care of business against these opponents and winning 53.1 percent of the remaining contests. If the defense proves to be No.1, that's possible. The odds are also generous on Minnesota winning the conference for half-unit bets.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 8-2 Preseason O/U: 48.5 wins Current O/U: 51.5
Odds for Division: +300 | Odds for Conference: +600 | Odds for Champion: +1400 |
Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval 1/10 |
The 76ers own the second-best offense, trailing only the defensively porous Pacers. Philadelphia currently boasts the ninth-best defense, and finishing with a top-10 ranking in each category is a huge projector of success.
Tyrese Maxey is arguably the best shooter in the league this season, and it's probably time he's regarded as one of the best active shooters in general. Dating back to Maxey's rookie season, 18 active players have attempted at least 850 three-point attempts while connecting on over 40.0 percent. Maxey's 41.5 percent clip ranks sixth. His pick-and-roll with Joel Embiid remains on the rise as well. The 76ers have had nonstop drama around that duo other than the commendably rock-solid Tobias Harris and the defensively-stout De'Anthony Melton. Overcoming the drama is commendable itself.
Projecting 52 wins might be an overreaction. Philadelphia is shallow, and Maxey will need to continually adjust to defenses still.
5. Golden State Warriors
Record: 6-6 Preseason O/U: 47.5 wins Current O/U: 48.5
Odds for Division: +225 | Odds for Conference: +550 | Odds for Champion: +1100 |
Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval: 5/10 | Confidence Interval 4/10 |
Amid a shooting slump, Klay Thompson reached a boiling point in Tuesday's brawl with Jaden McDaniels. I like that Klay is fired up, and it'll be interesting to see if a bounce-back follows. Andrew Wiggins can't buy a bucket, either. I expect both players to improve. Chris Paul is hitting just 20.0 percent of his threes, but Golden State is strong defensively with him on the court. Stephen Curry (knee) is on pace to exceed 30.0 points per game for the third time in his career, posting blistering 48.4/44.6/93.0 percent shooting with 12.6 threes per game. The offense needs balance, but the recipe remains.
Dario Saric, in just his age-29 campaign, is bringing effort, shot-making and reliable defense. He's huge to their frontcourt rotation. Brandin Podziemski is an impact player with amazing poise and confidence. Trayce Jackson-Davis is also a relevant contributor. They will keep improving, but Jonathan Kuminga has stagnated offensively. His handle isn't an asset, and his athleticism doesn't correlate to impressive rim finishing. If Golden State is actually involved in Zach LaVine rumors, Kuminga is a great starting point.
49 wins is a tough ask. I like the under despite my optimism.
6. Dallas Mavericks
Record: 8-3 Preseason O/U: 43.5 wins Current O/U: 46.5
Odds for Division: -210 | Odds for Conference: +1100 | Odds for Champion: +2500 |
Confidence Interval: 7/10 | Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval 2/10 |
The 8-3 Mavericks have only secured one quality win, and even that was a 144-126 shootout over the newly-revamped Clippers. Losses to the Nuggets and the resilient, Scottie Barnes-catalyzed Raptors aren't rèsumè knocks, but giving up 131 points in a loss to New Orleans is. Dallas has beaten teams they are supposed to beat, which is an awesome trait for a good team, but ranking 23rd in defensive rating won't cut it. Slightly improved defense around healthy MVP-candidate Luka Doncic makes 47 wins pretty plausible.
7. Phoenix Suns
Record: 4-6 Preseason O/U: 51.5 wins Current O/U: 48.5
Odds for Division: +185 | Odds for Conference: +380 | Odds for Champion: +750 |
Confidence Interval: 4/10 | Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval 6/10 |
Devin Booker (calf) returns on Wednesday, and his health is paramount. The "no point guard" experiment can work, but it's pretty apparent that it can't work if Booker and Beal aren't playing. Chemistry is important, and Phoenix will have to display a high-level of output before being ranked above Golden State and Dallas. Kevin Durant is delivering MVP-caliber scoring in 36.7 minutes per night, but the bench has failed other than Grayson Allen canning 48.2 percent of 5.6 threes per game.
8. Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 6-4 Preseason O/U: 53.5 wins Current O/U: 50.5
Odds for Division: -250 | Odds for Conference: +200 | Odds for Champion: +450 |
Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval: 7/10 | Confidence Interval 6/10 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo averaging 41.3 points and 11.0 rebounds on 68.1 percent shooting over his last three games has yielded a 1-2 record with a nine-point win over the Bulls -- that's concerning. Khris Middleton (knee) is still capped around 20 minutes per game, so he's getting the benefit of the doubt, but Damian Lillard dealing with calf issues for the second year in a row is a real concern. Jae Crowder (groin) missing the next two months is a concern, which is inherently concerning because that's how shallow Milwaukee's perimeter defense is. Malik Beasley handling point of attack is bad. Fortunately, Brook Lopez has looked good, but not good enough to lift Milwaukee's 25th ranking in defensive rating.
9. Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 3-7 Preseason O/U: 46.5 wins Current O/U: 43.5
Odds for Division: +700 | Odds for Conference: +1100 | Odds for Champion: +2200 |
Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval 6/10 |
Acquiring James Harden on the condition of keeping Terance Mann is ironic because Mann's role is what is being mitigated by Harden's presence. Mann was scoreless in 28 minutes during a loss to Denver at the buzzer Tuesday. Harden over Russell Westbrook in the closing lineup forms a dangerous and well-spaced shooting group, but it's a tough morale blow for Westbrook. I'm willing to be patient with this experiment, although I'm skeptical to already see language revolving around "we need James to be himself" because Harden's inconsistent presence was always the looming issue in Philadelphia. All-NBA scorer James Harden is gone, but this is his best environment yet to play off of others. He makes the Clippers better at the end of the day. Standard unit bets on 44 wins is a great buy-low spot, and I think the Clippers' upside is severely underrated.
Losing Mason Plumlee (knee) for the next 1-2 months destabilizes the frontcourt. If Plumlee was healthy the Clippers probably would've beaten Denver on Tuesday. Zubac isn't trusted to close games, so the Clippers have a clear weakness size-wise. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be taxed defensively.
10. Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 6-5 Preseason O/U: 47.5 wins Current O/U: 45.5
Odds for Division: +425 | Odds for Conference: +900 | Odds for Champion: +1700 |
Confidence Interval: 4/10 | Confidence Interval: 4/10 | Confidence Interval 3/10 |
Prior to dominating the hapless Grizzlies on Tuesday, the Lakers' largest win margin had been five points. With a minus-1.3 point differential overall through 11 games, Los Angeles is lucky to be 6-5. Being 6-5 is simultaneously unfortunate, given remarkable play from LeBron James thus far. Averaging 24.3 points and 8.5 rebounds on career-best 56.7 percent shooting, James and Anthony Davis (23.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.8 AST/TO ratio, 3.3 blocks per game) are keeping Los Angeles afloat without the presence of Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) and Gabe Vincent (knee).
Austin Reaves has a minus-24.4 net rating on the season. The Lakers are getting cooked defensively when he's on the court. Ditto for D'Angelo Russell. That duo is being relied upon and failing to deliver -- allowing 126.4 points per 100 possessions when on the court together. Those Lakers' lineups are dead last in defensive efficiency and account for 38.6 percent of the Lakers' total possessions. It would be shocking if Reaves can't improve moving forward.
11. Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 4-6 Preseason O/U: 51.5 wins Current O/U: 46.5
Odds for Division: +240 | Odds for Conference: +1300 | Odds for Champion: +3000 |
Confidence Interval: 5/10 | Confidence Interval: 4/10 | Confidence Interval 2/10 |
Last season, Cleveland was the only team to finish with top-10 ranks in points allowed and points scored per 100 possessions. The same core returned, with additions in Max Strus and Georges Niang that added shooting and versatility at the forward spots.
In games with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, Cleveland is 3-3 with losses to Oklahoma City, Indiana, and Sacramento (in De'Aaron Fox's return). Wins were earned over Golden State (twice) and Brooklyn. Jarrett Allen is still ramping up from an ankle sprain, and Evan Mobley hasn't taken a leap offensively, but he's still a two-way asset and a DPOY candidate. Caris LeVert and Max Strus have been huge boosts to Cleveland's offense, with LeVert quietly rounding into a league-average three-point shooter and defender over the past two seasons.
They are the final team in my rankings to exceed a Confidence Interval score of 1 as potential champions.
12. New York Knicks
Record: 5-5 Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins Current O/U: 44.5
Odds for Division: +2800 | Odds for Conference: +2200 | Odds for Champion: +6500 |
Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval: 1/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
The Knicks' shot diet of tough buckets is concerning. Overall ball movement and offensive action are mediocre, which limits the creation of high-value looks. The Knicks are the worst rim-finishing team in the league thus far, shooting 54.4 percent compared to the league-average 65.4 percent clip around the basket. Regression toward the mean will occur, but New York has been exposed by defensively-stout opponents, failing to exceed 50.0 percent shooting at the rim in three games against Boston and Cleveland this season. The Knicks ranked 21st in rim efficiency last season, so it's a trend.
Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart were reportedly exhausted after FIBA, and it's been a slow start for Julius Randle as well. All three are shooting horrendously. Mitchell Robinson's defensive impact has been huge, guiding the Knicks to the fifth-best defensive rating thus far. The Knicks have room to improve, but it will take quality wins.
13. Sacramento Kings
Record: 5-4 Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins Current O/U: 45.5
Odds for Division: +650 | Odds for Conference: +2800 | Odds for Champion: +6500 |
Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
De'Aaron Fox's return Monday sparked a classic Kings win in shootout fashion over a talented Cleveland team. It shouldn't be overlooked that Sacramento, sans Fox, beat Oklahoma City thanks to a big game from Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray. Back-to-back losses against Houston look better in hindsight given how hot the Rockets are, but the Kings were pushed by Portland. Sacramento's ability to perform if Fox or other key players go down is a serious concern, but last season's top offense in basketball appears to be back.
14. Oklahoma City
Record: 7-4 Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins Current O/U: 45.5
Odds for Division: +900 | Odds for Conference: +3000 | Odds for Champion: +7000 |
Confidence Interval: 2/10 | Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval 1/10 |
Blossoming chemistry and an abundance of talent make the Thunder dangerous on a nightly basis, but growing pains persist. The lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren is the most utilized lineup in the NBA this season, grading as slightly above average offensively and slightly below average defensively.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists with a 2.65 AST/TO ratio and 3.4 steals+blocks per game. He's a fringe top-5 two-way player in the league. Chet Holmgren is assembling a quality Rookie of the Year bid, posting 15.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks while knocking down 46.3 percent of 41 three-point attempts. Since three-point shooting is SGA's lone weakpoint, Holmgren's start is divine.
15. Atlanta Hawks
Record: 6-4 Preseason O/U: 42.5 wins Current O/U: 43.5
Odds for Division: +125 | Odds for Conference: +2500 | Odds for Champion: +7500 |
Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval: 2/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Simply put, Atlanta is a better version of last year's team. The Hawks currently rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency, upticks from 9th and 21st in those categories last season.
Jalen Johnson's breakout campaign, combined with outstanding shooting from Dejounte Murray, has overcome another subpar start from Trae Young. Murray is pouring in 50.0 percent of his shots and 40.7 percent of his threes en route to a career-best 22.9 points per game. Ultimately, Atlanta's season is capped by Young shooting 35.7 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from deep. Among the top 15 volumes of pull-up threes in the league, Young's 25.6 percent average is the worst. His passing is stellar, but his style is being killed by poor shooting.
16. Houston Rockets
Record: 6-3 Preseason O/U: 31.5 wins Current O/U: 38.5
Odds for Division: +900 | Odds for Conference: +12000 | Odds for Champion: +30000 |
Confidence Interval: 4/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Winners of six consecutive games, Houston has quality wins over the Nuggets and Lakers as part of their ongoing streak. Houston swept Sacramento in a back-to-back set without De'Aaron Fox, but the Rockets have been sharp on both sides of the ball.
Dillon Brooks' revitalization is reaching a credible sample size. Even while averaging just 8.5 points over his last four contests, Brooks is shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from deep. His shot-chucking days could be over, and his defense is elite. Fellow veteran addition VanVleet is supplying a career-best 7.9 assists with a sparkling 4.65 AST/TO ratio, which ranks 9th among qualifiers.
Alperen Sengun has All-Star worthiness. He punished Nikola Jokic in the midrange Sunday and has the ability to score at multiple levels or punish defenses with his passing. He's an elite enabler, and the rest of Houston's young cast is beginning to rise to the occasion.
17. Miami Heat
Record: 7-4 Preseason O/U: 45.5 wins Current O/U: 44.5
Odds for Division: +100 | Odds for Conference: +1500 | Odds for Champion: +4000 |
Confidence Interval: 6/10 | Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval 1/10 |
This is a potentially slanderous ranking for a duo as talented as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Adebayo continues to garner DPOY consideration alongside a career-best 23.2 points per game. Butler was off to a slow start before a 32-point outburst in a win over Charlotte on Tuesday.
Kyle Lowry's grit still makes him a league-average point guard, Duncan Robinson is a schematic chess piece, and Jaime Jaquez is rotation-worthy. However, there is no firepower. A multi-week absence for Tyler Herro (ankle) removes a dynamite scorer, and Caleb Martin's (knee) ongoing absence removes much-needed athleticism.
I expect Atlanta to push Miami down the stretch for the division despite Miami's status as the current favorite.
18. Brooklyn Nets
Record: 6-5 Preseason O/U: 37.5 wins Current O/U: 37.5
Odds for Division: +12000 | Odds for Conference: +8000 | Odds for Champion: +20000 |
Confidence Interval: 1/10 | Confidence Interval: 1/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
The Nets have room to ascend in these rankings as Nic Claxton settles in after returning from a high-ankle sprain. Cam Thomas' dominant and smooth scoring was one of the best storylines in basketball prior to suffering an ankle sprain. Mikal Bridges has connected on just 26.9 percent of 6.7 threes per game, but that makes his career-best 20.2 points per game that much more impressive. Bridges shoots 37.2 percent from deep for his career.
Spencer Dinwiddie has been a quality floor general, and Lonnie Walker has provided good bench scoring, but Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale have been extremely inconsistent. Ultimately, it remains unclear if Brooklyn's team construction can actually yield postseason success.
19. Indiana Pacers
Record: 7-4 Preseason O/U: 38.5 wins Current O/U: 40.5
Odds for Division: +1300 | Odds for Conference: +7000 | Odds for Champion: +20000 |
Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Tyrese Haliburton is arguably the best offensive engine in the NBA. His two-game streak of 32 assists and zero turnovers is generationally elite. Holistically, Indiana has improved its turnover rate, dropping from 14.8 percent last year to 12.6 this year, currently ranking as the 2nd lowest rate in the league.
At the end of the day, the defense is embarrassing. The Pacers are 27th in defensive efficiency despite well-regarded veteran coaching from Rick Carlisle.
Obi Toppin has shown no diversification of his game, and his three-point shot has worsened. He still can't move laterally on defense. Bennedict Mathurin remains a growth candidate. Jalen Smith has been a revelation, with Indiana being 3.9 points better defensively with him on the court. Smith has flashed a credible three-point stroke throughout his career, but he's now leaped to taking 60.3 percent of his shots at the rim -- a huge increase from the 43.9 percent frequency he averaged across his first four seasons. Growing upon his early-season effectiveness is a key trend for Indiana.
20. Orlando Magic
Record: 5-5 Preseason O/U: 37.5 wins Current O/U: 37.5
Odds for Division: +650 | Odds for Conference: +15000 | Odds for Champion: +45000 |
Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
The Magic beat up on the Lakers and Bucks and lost to Atlanta at the buzzer in recent games. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are constantly improving, so Orlando's rest-of-season outlook is good. Banchero is one of just 12 players in the league to exceed 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.
Anthony Black has flashed at times, filling in for Markelle Fultz (knee). Jalen Suggs has been given opportunities to pop offensively. Who else can truly emerge besides the core duo of Paolo and Franz? Orlando's defense is stout, currently ranking 7th in points allowed per 100 possessions after finishing last season ranked 11th -- which is impressive discipline for such a young team.
21. Toronto Raptors
Record: 5-5 Preseason O/U: 36.5 wins Current O/U: 36.5
Odds for Division: +12000 | Odds for Conference: +6000 | Odds for Champion: +20000 |
Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval: 1/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Toronto is showing some crazy resiliency. Finishing Monday's comeback victory over Washington on a 21-2 run was merely a follow-up act after overcoming a 22-point deficit to beat San Antonio last week. Heroics from Pascal Siakam and excellent well-rounded play from Scottie Barnes have carried the Raptors to five wins despite ranking 27th overall in offensive efficiency.
22. New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 5-6 Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins Current O/U: 41.5
Odds for Division: +330 | Odds for Conference: +2800 | Odds for Champion: +6000 |
Confidence Interval: 4/10 | Confidence Interval: 3/10 | Confidence Interval 1/10 |
Zion Williamson "buying in" would be pretty convenient. Given that he's looked so lethargic on defense the lack of accountability is weird. Perhaps a big win over Dallas on Tuesday fixed things. I feel that Brandon Ingram could do a better job orchestrating the offense while CJ McCollum (lung) is out, but establishing his scoring rhythm on a nightly basis is simultaneously important. The Pelicans are in a tough spot without Trey Murphy (knee), Jose Alvarado (ankle) and now Larry Nance (ribs). The freshly healthy duo of Herb Jones and Naji Marshall brings the grit defensively, especially with Dyson Daniels still struggling to make an impact offensively.
Jordan Hawkins has been a revelation, and Matt Ryan has helped keep New Orleans afloat at times, but no lineup for the Pelicans has played 90 possessions together! This is becoming a cyclic statement, but it's hard to judge this team's potential when the holistic vision can't be together.
23. San Antonio Spurs
Record: 3-8 Preseason O/U: 29.5 wins Current O/U: 27.5
Odds for Division: +7000 | Odds for Conference: +20000 | Odds for Champion: +60000 |
Confidence Interval: 1/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
San Antonio has more nightly volatility than any team in recent memory. Victor Wembanyama isn't a Zion-efficient scorer because of his jumper diet, but he's unstoppable at times. Zach Collins is demonstrating quality chemistry as a frontcourt partner, averaging 4.0 assists per game. Devin Vassell is shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from deep.
Ranking 28th in defensive efficiency and 24th in turnover rate, the Spurs are simply too young and too shallow to be a real threat. They are a bad bet to make the play-in. The future is bright. San Antonio has easy room to grow by cleaning up their transition performance and becoming schematically sound with Wembanyama as an anchor defensively.
24. Chicago Bulls
Record: 4-7 Preseason O/U: 37.5 wins Current O/U: 36.5
Odds for Division: +5500 | Odds for Conference: +10000 | Odds for Champion: +25000 |
Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
With a Zach LaVine trade potentially on the horizon, morale will either increase or plummet in Chicago. Unfortunately, morale isn't the issue. Chicago easily has the best turnover margin in the league, taking care of the ball on offense and trotting out high-IQ defenders on the perimeter. Guys are locked in. However, Nikola Vucevic isn't offering much resistance in the paint, as Chicago allows the third-highest rim frequency in the league.
Jevon Carter has been good, and Alex Caruso is one of the best defenders in basketball, but it's being squandered. Ultimately, the offense has no pop, with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan shooting well below their career standards. Patrick Williams is officially a bust -- and I had hope for him preseason. The idea of a tough-shot-making four that could space the court and pick up tough assignments has not come to fruition. A passive stretch-four off the bench is the reality.
25. Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 2-9 Preseason O/U: 45.5 wins Current O/U: 37.5
Odds for Division: +1200 | Odds for Conference: +5000 | Odds for Champion: +10000 |
Confidence Interval: 2/10 | Confidence Interval: 2/10 | Confidence Interval 1/10 |
Memphis is battling. Bismack Biyombo and Jacob Gilyard are among the heroes, providing great energy and commendable defense despite their weaknesses. Gilyard, at 5-foot-9, supplanting an injured Derrick Rose is an inherently troubling statement, as Memphis' guard depth without Ja Morant was a clear preseason weak point.
Ziaire Williams has shown flashes as a shooter and rebounder. David Roddy has earned minutes in crunch time. Xavier Tillman and Santi Aldama have been serviceable. None are showcasing upside to evolve into difference-makers for a playoff team.
Marcus Smart has been on-brand and is shooting a career-best 42.9 percent from the field, although he suffered an ankle injury of unspecified severity Tuesday. Jaren Jackson is still a top-10 defender in the league, and Desmond Bane is the next coming of Ray Allen, in case you missed it, but the 25-game mark can't arrive soon enough.
26. Charlotte Hornets
Record: 3-7 Preseason O/U: 31.5 wins Current O/U: 27.5
Odds for Division: +6500 | Odds for Conference: +50000 | Odds for Champion: +100000 |
Confidence Interval: 1/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
LaMelo Ball is back, averaging 30.3 points, 6.8 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game prior to Charlotte's depleted roster losing to Miami's depleted roster Tuesday. Gordon Hayward (hamstring), Brandon Miller (ankle), Terry Rozier (groin), Miles Bridges (suspension) and Cody Martin (knee) were out for the Hornets. Many of the aforementioned names will return soon, but Charlotte has issues even when fully healthy.
Charlotte is the 10th-best offense in the league, but the starters are getting outscored by 18.2 points per 100 possessions, grading as one of the worst defensive units in the league. The perimeter defense can't contain, and the pick-and-roll coverage isn't reliable, so Mark Williams and Nick Richards deep drop to protect the rim and create lanes into the paint. Despite the excellent length of Williams, neither of Charlotte's bigs are freak athletes or savvy positioners defensively. Coach Steve Clifford is pigeonholed with a lack of versatility. Bridges returning from suspension will help, but Charlotte is last in defensive rating for a multitude of reasons.
27. Detroit Pistons
Record: 2-10 Preseason O/U: 27.5 wins Current O/U: 25.5
Odds for Division: +50000 | Odds for Conference: +50000 | Odds for Champion: +100000 |
Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Ausar Thompson is among the next wave of elite wings in the league. His rebounding and defensive playmaking are off the charts. Detroit has enabled him in transition, even with a revolving cast of healthy guards. Killian Hayes has been revived under coach Monty Williams by cutting down his turnovers and showing incremental progress offensively. His overall rhythm and offensive processing are better. Marcus Sasser is a hit. Jalen Duren (ankle) is a home run, up-and-coming center despite currently missing time.
Bojan Bogdanovic (calf) hasn't played this season, and Jaden Ivey hasn't found balance offensively to contribute to winning, but Cade Cunningham's slow start is the most concerning. His inability to take a scoring leap caps the entire future of the Pistons organization. Committing a turnover on 20.9 percent of his pick-and-roll possessions is costly when that's supposed to be the staple of his game. Connecting on just 33.3 percent of 105 shots off the dribble signifies that his self-creation hasn't evolved yet.
28. Utah Jazz
Record: 4-7 Preseason O/U: 35.5 wins Current O/U: Not Offered
Odds for Division: +25000 | Odds for Conference: +20000 | Odds for Champion: +60000 |
Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Lauri Markkanen continues to profile as a two-way force capable of being the third-best player on a championship team. Given that he's rarely the offensive initiator and only used in the pick-and-roll on 9.1 percent of his possessions over the last two years, it's tough to project him for a higher ceiling.
John Collins is having a strong start, but I'm still viewing him as a restoration trade chip. More promisingly, Keyonte George is showing flashes of being Utah's combo guard of the future, and Brice Sensabaugh is tearing up the G League. Walker Kessler (elbow) is currently out after dealing with a UCL sprain all season, but his performance upon returning is a big storyline.
29. Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 3-7 Preseason O/U: 28.5 wins Current O/U: 25.5
Odds for Division: +50000 | Odds for Conference: +40000 | Odds for Champion: +100000 |
Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval: -1/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Shaedon Sharpe ranks third overall in minutes played this season. The 20-year-old is a victim and a beneficiary of his circumstance. His assist rate has nearly doubled, but his turnover rate has climbed as well. These are trials and tribulations of Sharpe being the No.1 option with Scoot Henderson (ankle) out. Portland is dead last in scoring at just 105.2 points per 100 possessions, so Sharpe's efficiency at the rim has suffered due to poor spacing and defensive attention. Jerami Grant is suffering a similar fate, although his inefficiency inside was an underrated component of Portland's struggles last year.
Overall, Sharpe's shooting and offensive orchestration is showing intriguing versatility. His future remains extremely bright. Losing Robert Williams (knee) for the season is a tough blow from a franchise-asset standpoint. Deandre Ayton owns a plus-10.9 point differential on the season, but it's tough to judge the rest of this team with Anfernee Simons (thumb) and Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) out. For all the fanfare surrounding Toumani Camara, the rookie is shooting just 35.7 percent from the field (good rebounder at least).
30. Washington Wizards
Record: 2-8 Preseason O/U: 24.5 wins Current O/U: 23.5
Odds for Division: +25000 | Odds for Conference: +50000 | Odds for Champion: +100000 |
Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval: 0/10 | Confidence Interval 0/10 |
Jordan Poole is a talented hooper, but I worry about how much distraction and toxic developmental energy he emulates in Washington. Corey Kispert is mostly immune to it, as the sturdy 6-foot-6 wing continues to hit threes while showcasing the ability to punish closeouts and add good offensive synergy overall. Deni Avdija is not immune, but the 22-year-old is nonetheless quietly breaking out with a 36.7 percent clip from beyond the arc, including 40.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes.
Kyles Kuzma continues to be a well-rounded scoring forward who can help run an offense. Bilal Coulibaly's development is going well. He's shooting threes confidently and has upside to grow into an O.G. Anunoby-esque player if everything goes well. Daniel Gafford is blocking 2.5 shots per game and shooting 76.3 percent from the field.
I deliberately used brief syntax here because the Wizards' players are individual parts instead of a whole team at this stage. More connectivity and discipline from Poole and Kuzma would go a long way. Washington currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency.