This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Welcome to the second official day of the NBA 2020-21 season. With a massive slate of games Wednesday, there's plenty of options to pick from when it comes to props bets to target. I want to see a couple of these teams actually take the court before betting the lines, so we'll stick with the numerous props available.
Points Props
There's no easier bet to hit, especially early in the season, than taking the over on specific player's points. Most of the data used for these is based on the previous year's production, so we can take advantage of specific changes and jump ahead of the curve before the sportsbooks do.
What better way to begin that exercise than by targeting a trade that caught just about everyone off guard during the 2020 NBA Draft. Seth Curry moving to the 76ers is intriguing on a number of basketball levels, but at least from a fantasy perspective, you have to imagine the looks from deep are going to be even better, especially when the nimble guard is alongside Danny Green. Taking the over at 12.5 (-107) feels like a bet on the Wizards once again having a terrible defense (league-worst 40.6 percent 3-point percentage allowed to opposing SGs in 2019-20) and the addition of Russell Westbrook changes that equation less than you might think.
I'm not sure if it's the addition of Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball or some unfounded optimism in the Cavaliers' defense, but taking the over on 16.5 points for Devonte' Graham seems fairly obvious, particularly when you're getting money to boot (+110). Hayward is expected to play through a fractured pinky finger which should hamper his field-goal attempts and I imagine Ball takes more minutes away from Terry Rozier as opposed to Graham. An excellent end to the preseason is probably weighing on me too much, but given how much Graham was the catalyst of the Hornets' offense last year, I can't ignore this one.
This has more to do with the pace of the game considering DraftKings has the Mavs/Suns o/u at 235.5, but I think taking the over on Mikal Bridges (10.5) is a smart play to make. Injuries to some depth options along the Suns' frontcourt should allow for Bridges to get a decent amount of minutes and from that point forward it's just taking advantage of a Mavs' defense that was dreadful stopping opposing small forwards last year (21.9 points allowed per game).
Assists/Rebounds Props
Taking the over on points is one of the easiest ways to capitalize on early-season bets, but you can also find value in assists and rebounds.
At least Wednesday, it definitely seems like the value is in the rebounds as I anticipate we'll see the assists fluctuate with more data available in the coming days. Here's the parlay that I'm looking at which pays out +452.
Daniel Theis over 5.5 rebounds (-143)
Zach LaVine over 4.5 rebounds (-143)
Malcolm Brogdon over 6.5 assists (-110) = +452
The Bucks shuffled the deck plenty of times throughout the offseason, but at the end of the day, it's still a team that is completely comfortable allowing their opposition to attempt a number of threes and also have center Brook Lopez on the perimeter offensively. If Tristan Thompson was going to get 20-25 minutes I'd be more hesitant on Theis, but as of Wednesday morning, the 29-year-old is calling himself a "game-time decision" which seems, uh, noteworthy to say the least.
LaVine I suspect will continue to hunt stats, particularly if Patrick Williams does in fact play more minutes than Otto Porter, but it's not as if anyone on the Bulls' frontcourt really is a massive rebound hog.
And Brodgon's assists totals should be better with Victor Oladipo officially back and without any sort of minutes restriction posing a problem. It doesn't hurt the Pacers are taking on the Knicks, either.
If you wanted to really roll the dice on this parlay, taking the over on Nikola Jokic's points/rebounds/assists (38.5) at -110 is really enticing to me, especially because I think the over on both his assists (5.5) and rebounds (9.5) is easily in play but come with worse odds. Hassan Whiteside probably gums up the works defensively for Jokic, but not the point where I think it stifles any sort of offensive flow from the Nuggets.
