This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
My first article as a part of this series went off without a hitch last week, so we are back at it again! We're in store for a nice six-game slate for Thursday. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. For all the bets I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each. Despite a six-game NBA slate, only a couple of props have me intrigued. Let's discuss!
Points Prop
I like DeAndre Ayton to go OVER 15.5 points (-110) in Thursday's matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, as many metrics make me confident Ayton can smash in this spot. Minnesota allows 25.5 points per game to opposing centers (most in the NBA) and is 27th in NBA opposing FG%, which I like for Ayton as he plays very close to the basket. The Timberwolves are 26th in defensive efficiency in the NBA and play at the third-highest pace in the NBA, which is excellent for Ayton in this spot. Phoenix also has a high team total (120.5) which I find Ayton to be a significant beneficiary. The matchup against the Timberwolves sets up to be an excellent spot for Ayton, and I am willing to take a chance on his OVER 15.5 points (-110) prop.
Assists Prop
Another spot I like is Lonzo Ball to go OVER 6.5 Assists (-110) against the Portland Trail Blazers. Many statistics tell me this is a good spot for Ball to go over this projection. Portland allows 8.9 assists per game to opposing point guards (tied for third-most in the NBA), and Lonzo Ball was able to exploit this on Tuesday when he had 17 assists. The Trail Blazers rank 25th in opposing field goal percentage allowed and 26th in opposing 3 point field goal percentage allowed, so there's plenty of potential for New Orleans to score both close to the basket and from beyond the arc (i.e., OVER/UNDER for this game is 239.5 with a one-point spread). Lastly, Portland is second-lowest in terms of defensive efficiency in the NBA. This sets up to be an excellent spot for Ball to dish out some dimes as New Orleans has a lot of scoring upside with this great matchup statistically.
