This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We finally got back on the right side of the lucky track with two of the three best bets hitting and Malcolm Brogdon doing work in the win over Portland. Saturday's slate is minus just one game meaning we should have plenty of different options for prop bets and parlays. And hey, don't be afraid to add some NFL prop bets to the table as well. Kevin Payne's DraftKings specific article does a good job detailing a number of suitable prop bet options that could be mixed in as part of a parlay.
Points Props
I try not to take too much stock into recent games played especially in this wonky of a NBA season. That being said, it seems a little strange for Keldon Johnson's over/under to be set at 14.5 points (-118 for over) after just scoring 29 points against the Rockets just two nights ago. We don't know the status of newcomer Victor Oladipo as of this writing, but I don't think he'll have a critical factor on the Rockets' frontcourt even if he were to play and Johnson has seen an average 36.5 minutes over the past four games. Playing time is there, scoring production has been relatively consistent as of late and it looks like a solid matchup from a strategical perspective. Give me the over every time.
Another repeat game from Thursday, PJ Washington over 13.5 points (-110) looks particularly promising considering he's hit that threshold three of the last four games. Gordon Hayward (hip) being unable to play would certainly boost these odds higher I imagine, but regardless Washington has weaved his way into the fabric of the Hornets offense and should be relatively secure in his production against a Raptors frontcourt that has struggled this season to defend big men.
It's a bit like Jerami Grant in Detroit, but the usage of Nikola Vucevic for the Magic almost guarantees a certain baseline level of production each night out. At least for Saturday, over 36.5 total points/rebounds/assists (PRA) is the most enticing line relative to the odds (-110). You could take the over on points too (22.5, -110), but I think there's probably more wiggle room in the rebound totals than points so combining the group makes the most sense. Remember, with Jarrett Allen gone the Nets are now guaranteeing DeAndre Jordan something like 25+ minutes a night which in the year 2021 is, uh, not good for the team's defense.
I'll finish out the points section with two unders that I think could be in play. Perhaps this is me trying to make amends with not betting with my gut Thursday and taking the under on Jamal Murray's points total, instead chickening out with the PRA under, but I'm not making any such excuses Saturday. Trae Young is obviously a proficient scorer but something is definitely rotten in the state of Denmark, I mean Georgia, and I think it might be the Hawks' offense. The Trail Blazers allow the second-most points to point guards per game and it's always possible Young could "get it right" at any moment, but he's scored fewer than 20 points in four of the last six games. Under 27.5 points (-115) looks awfully promising even with the threat of a point-guard dual possibly igniting Young's dormant offensive flames.
Sticking in the same game, taking Enes Kanter's under of 13.5 points (-121) feels like a safe bet too. DraftKings appears to be over-adjusting to the loss of Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) although the greater likelihood is Harry Giles and Kanter splitting the minutes. The Hawks allow the fourth-fewest points to centers and I think Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum will have their way anyway with a plethora of deep shots meaning Kanter will have to score on pick-and-rolls plus offensive boards. I could see the veteran big man scoring more than his season average of 10, but I just don't think he sees enough minutes to creep all the way up to 14.
Rebounds/Assists Props
It worked Thursday so we might as well go back to the well on OG Anunoby's 18.5 PRA. The over sits at (-121) -- we got 19.5 at plus money Thursday so DraftKings didn't move off the number too much -- meaning we can feel comfortable rolling with the same premise. Again, Hornets allow a ton of 3-pointers to small forwards so we're just hoping the extra bit of rebounds and assists can give us the rest of the ancillary production needed for this bet to hit.
This is one of those bets that seems too good to be true, but everyone really should take Blake Griffin over 4.5 rebounds (-159) and feel reasonably confident in the bet, particularly as a parlay piece. The Heat are still going to be missing a handful of players due to COVID-19 protocols meaning their offense shouldn't be humming on all cylinders and Griffin has at least five rebounds in all but two games this season. Unless Griffin gets hurt, which admittedly is a realistic possibility, I don't know how he misses this figure.
Rounding it out with one of my favorite bets of the night, I'm definitely taking Clint Capela to get a double-double (+120). The Trail Blazers don't allow a ton of extra rebounds to centers (tied for seventh-fewest) and it's not as if they give up an alarming amount of points either (allow 13th most points to the position), but Capela has double-digit rebounds in all but one game this season and has scored double-digit points in five of the last seven games. I don't really see the Trail Blazers going too small, therefore forcing either Capela or John Collins off the floor often, so this feels like one of those bets that should be in the -120 range rather than the reverse.
Best Bets
- PJ Washington over 13.5 points (-110)
- Blake Griffin over 4.5 rebounds (-159)
- Clint Capela to get double-double (+120)
- Trae Young under 27.5 points (-121)
