This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We're in store for a nice 10-game slate for Friday. The theme of this article is "under galore." Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. For all the bets I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each. Let's discuss!
Points Prop
To start us off, let's look at the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (-8) and the Golden State Warriors (+8), which has the potential to blowout due to all the injuries the Warriors are dealing with (Curry, Oubre Jr., and Wiseman to name a few). Therefore, this game's likely script may not allow starters to play their typical workloads for 48 minutes. I like Ja Morant to go UNDER 21.5 points (-113). Morant is averaging 19.4 points per game on the season, and the Warriors rank sixth in opposing field goal percentage while being third in opposing three-point field goal percentage. Furthermore, Golden State is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Statistics suggest these are challenging circumstances to have a phenomenal scoring outing against the Warriors.
Assists and Rebounds Props
Sticking with the game between the Warriors and the Grizzlies, I like Draymond Green to go UNDER 8.5 assists (-113). As touched on in the above paragraph, there are concerns about this game blowing out, limiting Draymond's assist upside, considering he may see fewer minutes on the floor. Also, Memphis is seventh in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Memphis allows 3.6 assists per game to opposing centers, 8.1 assists to opposing point guards, and 3.9 assists per game to opposing power forwards. Draymond had some recent success recently getting over the 8.5 assists threshold, but this matchup against the Grizzlies is more complex and seems likely to go under his assist prop.
The game between the Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat has one of the lower total projected points on the slate (215.5). Statistically, the total makes sense as the Heat are third in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency and play at the fourth-lowest pace, yet 24th in the NBA for offensive efficiency. Domantas Sabonis averages 6.4 assists per game for the season. The Heat allow the fewest assists per game to opposing centers in the NBA (2.5) and 4.2 assists per game to opposing power forwards. This matchup is a spot where statistics contradict the recency bias of Sabonis having double-digit assists. Putting faith in the statistics with a larger sample size and betting the UNDER 7.5 (-130) on Sabonis's assist total today is worth it to me.
The Detroit Pistons will face the Houston Rockets, who rank 22nd in opposing offensive rebounds allowed and 27th in opposing defensive rebounds. These metrics favor Jerami Grant to OVER 4.5 rebounds (-127), who grabbed eight boards the last time these two teams squared off. The Rockets allow 9.0 rebounds per game (most in the NBA) to opposing small forwards and 12.0 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. Houston is tied for last in the NBA regarding offensive efficiency yet plays at the fifth-highest pace. Thus, an abundance of rebounding opportunities is likely to be present during this game. The statistics paint a picture that makes it seem very likely Grant will go over the 4.5 rebound threshold this evening.
