This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
Through Friday's action, league ERA is down over last season - which feels strange after a number of horrible starts. Here's some stats, focusing on earned runs per start for the two years:
ER | 2025 | 2024 |
---|---|---|
12 | 2 | |
11 | 2 | |
10 | 0 | 7 |
9 | 7 | 17 |
8 | 17 | 48 |
7 | 40 | 121 |
6 | 70 | 203 |
5 | 123 | 339 |
4 | 211 | 563 |
3 | 304 | 728 |
2 | 369 | 942 |
1 | 411 | 1004 |
0 | 360 | 886 |
Comparing is easier using percentage of overall starts:
ER | 2025 | 2024 |
---|---|---|
12 | 0.10% | |
11 | 0.10% | |
10 | 0.00% | 0.14% |
9 | 0.37% | 0.35% |
8 | 0.89% | 0.99% |
7 | 2.09% | 2.49% |
6 | 3.65% | 4.18% |
5 | 6.42% | 6.98% |
4 | 11.01% | 11.59% |
3 | 15.87% | 14.99% |
2 | 19.26% | 19.39% |
1 | 21.45% | 20.67% |
0 | 18.79% | 18.24% |
Presenting the data this way shows there are fewer disasters so far this season, though it could catch up as offense usually increases:
2025 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|
8 or more ER | 1.46% | 1.48% |
7 or more ER | 3.55% | 3.97% |
6 or more ER | 7.20% | 8.15% |
5 or more ER | 13.62% | 15.13% |
This is rather crude analysis, but so far there have been 28 starts with at least eight earned runs. Random distribution indicates almost everyone in a 15-team league would have absorbed two. Those, like me with Jesus Luzardo and Brandon Pfaadt active for their last two outings, are less fortunate.
This notion warrants a deeper treatment. But if you've been victimized twice by a terrible performance, you're on par with much of your league. If
Through Friday's action, league ERA is down over last season - which feels strange after a number of horrible starts. Here's some stats, focusing on earned runs per start for the two years:
ER | 2025 | 2024 |
---|---|---|
12 | 2 | |
11 | 2 | |
10 | 0 | 7 |
9 | 7 | 17 |
8 | 17 | 48 |
7 | 40 | 121 |
6 | 70 | 203 |
5 | 123 | 339 |
4 | 211 | 563 |
3 | 304 | 728 |
2 | 369 | 942 |
1 | 411 | 1004 |
0 | 360 | 886 |
Comparing is easier using percentage of overall starts:
ER | 2025 | 2024 |
---|---|---|
12 | 0.10% | |
11 | 0.10% | |
10 | 0.00% | 0.14% |
9 | 0.37% | 0.35% |
8 | 0.89% | 0.99% |
7 | 2.09% | 2.49% |
6 | 3.65% | 4.18% |
5 | 6.42% | 6.98% |
4 | 11.01% | 11.59% |
3 | 15.87% | 14.99% |
2 | 19.26% | 19.39% |
1 | 21.45% | 20.67% |
0 | 18.79% | 18.24% |
Presenting the data this way shows there are fewer disasters so far this season, though it could catch up as offense usually increases:
2025 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|
8 or more ER | 1.46% | 1.48% |
7 or more ER | 3.55% | 3.97% |
6 or more ER | 7.20% | 8.15% |
5 or more ER | 13.62% | 15.13% |
This is rather crude analysis, but so far there have been 28 starts with at least eight earned runs. Random distribution indicates almost everyone in a 15-team league would have absorbed two. Those, like me with Jesus Luzardo and Brandon Pfaadt active for their last two outings, are less fortunate.
This notion warrants a deeper treatment. But if you've been victimized twice by a terrible performance, you're on par with much of your league. If you've escaped a pair of duds, consider yourself lucky.
There were 72 starts of at least eight earned runs during 2024, or around five each in 15-team formats. Hang in there, and hopefully the other owners will also be subjected to the same fate.
Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!
UPDATED: Monday June 9 1:15 AM ET
Week of June 9 - 15
Mixed League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Sale | ATL | @MIL, COL | Back in the Cy Young discussion |
2 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @BAL | |
3 | Framber Valdez | HOU | CWS | |
4 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @NYM, MIA | Worthy of ace status |
5 | Robbie Ray | SF | @COL, @LAD | 25 K, only 4 BB over last 20 IP |
6 | Jack Flaherty | DET | CIN | |
7 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | SEA, SD | |
8 | Nick Pivetta | SD | LAD, @ARI | |
9 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @CHC | |
10 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | @PHI, PIT | |
11 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | CWS | Strikeouts and velo down, worth monitoring |
12 | Max Fried | NYY | @KC | |
13 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | @KC, @BOS | |
14 | Logan Webb | SF | @COL | |
15 | Shane Smith | CWS | @HOU, @TEX | Walks high, but facing manageable lineups |
16 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | PIT | |
17 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | @MIL | |
18 | Joe Ryan | MIN | @HOU | |
19 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SF | |
20 | Tyler Mahle | TEX | @MIN, CWS | Regression underway, but still due more |
21 | Kris Bubic | KC | NYY, ATH | Showing no signs of slowing down |
22 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @SEA | |
23 | Kodai Senga | NYM | WAS | |
24 | Sonny Gray | STL | @MIL | |
25 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | @NYM | |
26 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | CHC | |
27 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | @LAA, @KC | |
28 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @ARI | |
29 | Bailey Ober | MIN | TEX | |
30 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @SEA | |
31 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | TOR | |
32 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | CWS | |
33 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @STL, @PHI | |
34 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | TOR | |
35 | Hunter Brown | HOU | MIN | |
36 | Shane Baz | TB | @BOS, @NYM | |
37 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | CLE | |
38 | Ben Brown | CHC | @PHI | Beginning to use his changeup more |
39 | Spencer Strider | ATL | COL | |
40 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | @PIT | Still skeptical of a turnaround but has a soft matchup |
41 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | @BOS | |
42 | Dustin May | LAD | @SD, SF | |
43 | Cade Horton | CHC | PIT | |
44 | David Peterson | NYM | WAS | |
45 | Grant Holmes | ATL | @MIL | |
46 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @CLE | |
47 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | @WAS | |
48 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | CIN, @SEA | |
49 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | @COL | |
50 | Aaron Nola | PHI | TOR | |
51 | Clay Holmes | NYM | TB | |
52 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @ARI | |
53 | Griffin Canning | NYM | WAS, TB | |
54 | Eury Perez | MIA | @PIT, @WAS | |
55 | Michael Wacha | KC | ATH | |
56 | Taj Bradley | TB | @NYM | |
57 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | ATH, @BAL | |
58 | Dylan Cease | SD | LAD | |
59 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | TEX, @HOU | |
60 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @PHI | |
61 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @BAL | |
62 | Sean Burke | CWS | @HOU | |
63 | Lance McCullers | HOU | CWS | |
64 | Zach Eflin | BAL | DET | |
65 | George Kirby | SEA | CLE | |
66 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SF | |
67 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | NYY | |
68 | Tylor Megill | NYM | TB | |
69 | David Festa | MIN | TEX | |
70 | Mitch Keller | PIT | MIA, @CHC | |
71 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | STL | |
72 | Luis Castillo | SEA | CLE | |
73 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | CIN | |
74 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @HOU | |
75 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | SEA | Grumble, grumble |
76 | Colton Gordon | HOU | MIN | |
77 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @BAL, CIN | |
78 | Andre Pallante | STL | TOR, @MIL | |
79 | Keider Montero | DET | CIN | |
80 | Zac Gallen | ARI | SD | |
81 | Jose Quintana | MIL | STL | |
82 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | LAA | |
83 | Luis Severino | ATH | @KC | |
84 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | @WAS | |
85 | Erick Fedde | STL | @MIL | |
86 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | SEA | |
87 | Bailey Falter | PIT | MIA | |
88 | Jose Soriano | LAA | ATH | |
89 | Jake Irvin | WAS | @NYM | |
90 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | @CLE | |
91 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | @PIT | |
92 | Zack Littell | TB | @BOS | |
93 | Miles Mikolas | STL | TOR | |
94 | Adrian Houser | CWS | @TEX | |
95 | Cole Ragans | KC | NYY | |
96 | Stephen Kolek | SD | @ARI | |
97 | Michael Soroka | WAS | @NYM | |
98 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | TOR | |
99 | Bryce Elder | ATL | COL | |
100 | Davis Martin | CWS | @HOU | |
101 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||
102 | Jacob Lopez | ATH | @KC | |
103 | Nick Martinez | CIN | @DET | |
104 | Colin Rea | CHC | @PHI, PIT | |
105 | Seth Lugo | KC | NYY | |
106 | Landen Roupp | SF | @LAD | |
107 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | @STL | |
108 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | @BOS | |
109 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | @SD | |
110 | Cade Povich | BAL | DET, LAA | |
111 | Eric Lauer | TOR | @STL | |
112 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | MIA | |
113 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | SD | |
114 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||
115 | Mitch Spence | ATH | @LAA | |
116 | Trevor Williams | WAS | MIA | |
117 | Chad Patrick | MIL | ATL | |
118 | Jack Leiter | TEX | @MIN | |
119 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | @MIN | |
120 | Aaron Civale | MIL | ATL, STL | |
121 | Charlie Morton | BAL | LAA | |
122 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | TB | |
123 | Walker Buehler | BOS | TB | |
124 | Brayan Bello | BOS | TB, NYY | |
125 | Casey Mize | DET | @BAL | |
126 | Michael Lorenzen | KC | ATH | |
127 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @ARI | |
128 | Brady Singer | CIN | @DET | |
129 | Brandon Walter | HOU | MIN | |
130 | Bowden Francis | TOR | @PHI | |
131 | Quinn Priester | MIL | ATL, STL | |
132 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | CWS | |
133 | Will Warren | NYY | @KC | |
134 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | CHC | Facing the top offense in the league, not the best matchup for a rebound |
135 | JP Sears | ATH | @LAA | |
136 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @BAL | |
137 | Ryan Bergert | SD | @ARI | |
138 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | ATH | |
139 | Dean Kremer | BAL | DET | |
140 | Michael McGreevy | STL | @MIL | |
141 | Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | @BOS | |
142 | Mick Abel | PHI | CHC | |
143 | Hunter Dobbins | BOS | NYY | |
144 | Carson Palmquist | COL | SF | |
145 | Mike Burrows | PIT | MIA, @CHC | |
146 | Kyle Freeland | COL | SF | |
147 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | @CHC | |
148 | Jose Urena | LAD | @SD | |
149 | Chase Dollander | COL | @ATL | |
150 | Logan Allen | CLE | CIN | |
151 | Wade Miley | CIN | @CLE, @DET | |
152 | German Marquez | COL | @ATL | |
153 | Mike Vasil | CWS | @TEX | |
154 | Justin Verlander | SF | @LAD | |
155 | Randy Vasquez | SD | LAD | |
156 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | SF | |
157 | Bradley Blalock | COL | @ATL |
American League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @BAL | |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | CWS | |
3 | Jack Flaherty | DET | CIN | |
4 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | CWS | Strikeouts and velo down, worth monitoring |
5 | Max Fried | NYY | @KC | |
6 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | @KC, @BOS | |
7 | Shane Smith | CWS | @HOU, @TEX | Walks high, but facing manageable lineups |
8 | Joe Ryan | MIN | @HOU | |
9 | Tyler Mahle | TEX | @MIN, CWS | Regression underway, but still due more |
10 | Kris Bubic | KC | NYY, ATH | Showing no signs of slowing down |
11 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @SEA | |
12 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | @NYM | |
13 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | @LAA, @KC | |
14 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @ARI | |
15 | Bailey Ober | MIN | TEX | |
16 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @SEA | |
17 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | CWS | |
18 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @STL, @PHI | |
19 | Hunter Brown | HOU | MIN | |
20 | Shane Baz | TB | @BOS, @NYM | |
21 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | CLE | |
22 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | @BOS | |
23 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | CIN, @SEA | |
24 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @ARI | |
25 | Michael Wacha | KC | ATH | |
26 | Taj Bradley | TB | @NYM | |
27 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | ATH, @BAL | |
28 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | TEX, @HOU | |
29 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @PHI | |
30 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @BAL | |
31 | Sean Burke | CWS | @HOU | |
32 | Lance McCullers | HOU | CWS | |
33 | Zach Eflin | BAL | DET | |
34 | George Kirby | SEA | CLE | |
35 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | NYY | |
36 | David Festa | MIN | TEX | |
37 | Luis Castillo | SEA | CLE | |
38 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | CIN | |
39 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @HOU | |
40 | Colton Gordon | HOU | MIN | |
41 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @BAL, CIN | |
42 | Keider Montero | DET | CIN | |
43 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | LAA | |
44 | Luis Severino | ATH | @KC | |
45 | Jose Soriano | LAA | ATH | |
46 | Zack Littell | TB | @BOS | |
47 | Adrian Houser | CWS | @TEX | |
48 | Cole Ragans | KC | NYY | |
49 | Davis Martin | CWS | @HOU | |
50 | Jacob Lopez | ATH | @KC | |
51 | Seth Lugo | KC | NYY | |
52 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | @STL | |
53 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | @BOS | |
54 | Cade Povich | BAL | DET, LAA | |
55 | Eric Lauer | TOR | @STL | |
56 | Mitch Spence | ATH | @LAA | |
57 | Jack Leiter | TEX | @MIN | |
58 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | @MIN | |
59 | Charlie Morton | BAL | LAA | |
60 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | TB | |
61 | Walker Buehler | BOS | TB | |
62 | Brayan Bello | BOS | TB, NYY | |
63 | Casey Mize | DET | @BAL | |
64 | AL Reliever | |||
65 | Michael Lorenzen | KC | ATH | |
66 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @ARI | |
67 | Brandon Walter | HOU | MIN | |
68 | Bowden Francis | TOR | @PHI | |
69 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | CWS | |
70 | Will Warren | NYY | @KC | |
71 | JP Sears | ATH | @LAA | |
72 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @BAL | |
73 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | ATH | |
74 | Dean Kremer | BAL | DET | |
75 | Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | @BOS | |
76 | Hunter Dobbins | BOS | NYY | |
77 | Logan Allen | CLE | CIN | |
78 | Mike Vasil | CWS | @TEX |
National League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Sale | ATL | @MIL, COL | Back in the Cy Young discussion |
2 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @NYM, MIA | Worthy of ace status |
3 | Robbie Ray | SF | @COL, @LAD | 25 K, only 4 BB over last 20 IP |
4 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | SEA, SD | |
5 | Nick Pivetta | SD | LAD, @ARI | |
6 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @CHC | |
7 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | @PHI, PIT | |
8 | Logan Webb | SF | @COL | |
9 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | PIT | |
10 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | @MIL | |
11 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SF | |
12 | Kodai Senga | NYM | WAS | |
13 | Sonny Gray | STL | @MIL | |
14 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | CHC | |
15 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | TOR | |
16 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | TOR | |
17 | Ben Brown | CHC | @PHI | Beginning to use his changeup more |
18 | Spencer Strider | ATL | COL | |
19 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | @PIT | Still skeptical of a turnaround but has a soft matchup |
20 | Dustin May | LAD | @SD, SF | |
21 | Cade Horton | CHC | PIT | |
22 | David Peterson | NYM | WAS | |
23 | Grant Holmes | ATL | @MIL | |
24 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @CLE | |
25 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | @WAS | |
26 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | @COL | |
27 | Aaron Nola | PHI | TOR | |
28 | Clay Holmes | NYM | TB | |
29 | Griffin Canning | NYM | WAS, TB | |
30 | Eury Perez | MIA | @PIT, @WAS | |
31 | Dylan Cease | SD | LAD | |
32 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SF | |
33 | Tylor Megill | NYM | TB | |
34 | Mitch Keller | PIT | MIA, @CHC | |
35 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | STL | |
36 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | SEA | Grumble, grumble |
37 | Andre Pallante | STL | TOR, @MIL | |
38 | Zac Gallen | ARI | SD | |
39 | Jose Quintana | MIL | STL | |
40 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | @WAS | |
41 | Erick Fedde | STL | @MIL | |
42 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | SEA | |
43 | Bailey Falter | PIT | MIA | |
44 | Jake Irvin | WAS | @NYM | |
45 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | @CLE | |
46 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | @PIT | |
47 | Miles Mikolas | STL | TOR | |
48 | Stephen Kolek | SD | @ARI | |
49 | Michael Soroka | WAS | @NYM | |
50 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | TOR | |
51 | Bryce Elder | ATL | COL | |
52 | Nick Martinez | CIN | @DET | |
53 | Colin Rea | CHC | @PHI, PIT | |
54 | Landen Roupp | SF | @LAD | |
55 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | @SD | |
56 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | MIA | |
57 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | SD | |
58 | Trevor Williams | WAS | MIA | |
59 | Chad Patrick | MIL | ATL | |
60 | Aaron Civale | MIL | ATL, STL | |
61 | NL Reliever | |||
62 | Brady Singer | CIN | @DET | |
63 | Quinn Priester | MIL | ATL, STL | |
64 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | CHC | Facing the top offense in the league, not the best matchup for a rebound |
65 | Ryan Bergert | SD | @ARI | |
66 | Michael McGreevy | STL | @MIL | |
67 | Mick Abel | PHI | CHC | |
68 | Carson Palmquist | COL | SF | |
69 | Mike Burrows | PIT | MIA, @CHC | |
70 | Kyle Freeland | COL | SF | |
71 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | @CHC | |
72 | Jose Urena | LAD | @SD | |
73 | Chase Dollander | COL | @ATL | |
74 | Wade Miley | CIN | @CLE, @DET | |
75 | German Marquez | COL | @ATL | |
76 | Justin Verlander | SF | @LAD | |
77 | Randy Vasquez | SD | LAD | |
78 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | SF | |
79 | Bradley Blalock | COL | @ATL |