Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Five Times a Charm

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Updated on April 22, 2024 1:46AM EST

We're almost there. It takes five or six starts for in-season numbers to make a noticeable difference in rest-of-season projections. By this time next week, around 100 pitchers will have started at least five times.

I reserve the right to overwrite my initial projection, which will in turn adjust the rest of season expectation. However, so far, I've only manually tweaked three hurlers: Ronel Blanco, Reese Olson and Jared Jones. Blanco continues to get it done with smoke and mirrors, but he merited an upgrade to reflect using his changeup more while reducing slider deployment. Olson was an oversight. Part of my engine regresses BABIP and left on base, but sometimes the level is still out of whack with MLB norm. I manually review almost everyone I project, but I missed Olson. Jones was a matter of MLE translations not always reflecting the talent of the better prospects, so some massaging was needed.

I let the rest-of-season engine code take care of the rest. To be clear, these are my projections, which aren't the same as the site version.

As always, the schedule is subject to change. Please direct all rotation questions to the Probable Pitchers page. I'm happy to explain rankings in the discussion below.

PLEASE NOTE: The weekend series between the Astros and Rockies is in Mexico City. Colorado is serving as the home team. The park factors are slightly more favorable than Coors Field.

UPDATED: Monday April 22, 1:15 AM ET

Week of April 22

I let the rest-of-season engine code take care of the rest. To be clear, these are my projections, which aren't the same as the site version.

As always, the schedule is subject to change. Please direct all rotation questions to the Probable Pitchers page. I'm happy to explain rankings in the discussion below.

PLEASE NOTE: The weekend series between the Astros and Rockies is in Mexico City. Colorado is serving as the home team. The park factors are slightly more favorable than Coors Field.

UPDATED: Monday April 22, 1:15 AM ET

Week of April 22 - 28

Mixed

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comments	MIX12	MIX15
1	Tarik Skubal	DET	@TB, KC	Rewarding those trusting him as an ace
2	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	@LAA, OAK
3	Pablo Lopez	MIN	CWS, @LAA
4	Corbin Burnes	BAL	OAK
5	Zack Wheeler	PHI	@CIN
6	Tanner Houck	BOS	@CLE, CHC	28 K, 2 BB over 26 IP
7	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@PIT
8	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	@TOR
9	Ranger Suarez	PHI	@CIN, @SD
10	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@TEX, ARI
11	Zac Gallen	ARI	@SEA
12	Sonny Gray	STL	@NYM	Opened season with 11 scoreless innings
13	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	@WAS
14	Reid Detmers	LAA	BAL, MIN	23 K, 4 BB over last 17.2 IP
15	Bailey Ober	MIN	CWS	1.06 ERA and .65 WHIP with 16 K and 3 BB in 17 IP since… you know…
16	Joe Ryan	MIN	CWS
17	Aaron Nola	PHI	@SD
18	Jared Jones	PIT	MIL, @SF	23 K, with just 2 BB spanning first 23 IP
19	Nestor Cortes	NYY	OAK
20	Logan Webb	SF	NYM	2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but 22 K in 30 IP a concern
21	Zach Eflin	TB	@CWS
22	Merrill Kelly	ARI	@SEA
23	Chris Sale	ATL	CLE
24	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	CIN
25	Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	MIA
26	Brady Singer	KC	TOR, @DET	Changes to pick mix appear to be working
27	Michael King	SD	@COL, PHI
28	Kutter Crawford	BOS	CHC
29	Dylan Cease	SD	@COL, PHI
30	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	@KC, LAD
31	Kevin Gausman	TOR	@KC, LAD	Says shoulder is fine. Numbers don't agree
32	Marcus Stroman	NYY	OAK, @MIL
33	Ryan Pepiot	TB	DET
34	Nick Lodolo	CIN	PHI	16 K with 1 BB in 12 IP, welcome back!
35	Jordan Montgomery	ARI	@STL
36	Max Fried	ATL	MIA
37	George Kirby	SEA	ARI	3.63 xFIP says be patient
38	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	WAS
39	Michael Wacha	KC	TOR, @DET
40	Bryce Miller	SEA	@TEX
41	Jose Berrios	TOR	@KC
42	Dane Dunning	TEX	SEA, CIN
43	Seth Lugo	KC	@DET
44	Andrew Abbott	CIN	PHI, @TEX	Could be the week his actual 2.70 ERA moves towards 4.59 xFIP
45	Hunter Greene	CIN	PHI, @TEX
46	Jordan Hicks	SF	PIT
47	Brayan Bello	BOS	@CLE
48	Keaton Winn	SF	NYM, PIT
49	Aaron Civale	TB	@CWS
50	Garrett Crochet	CWS	@MIN	Been really good or really bad. Will land in between, but closer to really good.
51	Jose Quintana	NYM	@SF, STL		30%
52	Justin Verlander	HOU	@CHC
53	Luis Castillo	SEA	@TEX	2.80 xFIP less than half of 5.82 ERA
54	Spencer Turnbull	PHI	@CIN	3.61 xFIP says there is some luck to 1.23 ERA, but 3.61 is really good
55	Cole Ragans	KC	TOR
56	Lance Lynn	STL	ARI, @NYM
57	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	@CIN	Walks a little high, but preseason buzz seemingly warranted
58	Edward Cabrera	MIA	WAS
59	Blake Snell	SF	NYM
60	Jon Gray	TEX	SEA
61	Kyle Harrison	SF	PIT
62	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	OAK
63	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	@STL, @SEA
64	Shota Imanaga	CHC	HOU
65	Joe Musgrove	SD	PHI
66	Ronel Blanco	HOU	@CHC
67	Jose Butto	NYM	STL
68	Charlie Morton	ATL	CLE
69	Bailey Falter	PIT	MIL, @SF		0%	5%
70	Carlos Rodon	NYY	OAK, @MIL
71	James Paxton	LAD	@WAS, @TOR
72	Kenta Maeda	DET	@TB
73	Dean Kremer	BAL	@LAA
74	Michael Lorenzen	TEX	CIN		1%
75	Jack Flaherty	DET	@TB
76	JP Sears	OAK	@NYY, @BAL		23%
77	Mix 12 Reliever
78	Reese Olson	DET	KC
79	Mitch Keller	PIT	MIL
80	Braxton Garrett	MIA	@ATL
81	Bryce Elder	ATL	MIA, CLE		2%	2%
82	Mix 15 Reliever
83	Triston McKenzie	CLE	BOS
84	Sean Manaea	NYM	@SF
85	Casey Mize	DET	KC
86	Taijuan Walker	PHI	@SD		1%	2%
87	Luis Gil	NYY	@MIL
88	Jose Soriano	LAA	MIN		7%
89	Andrew Heaney	TEX	SEA		28%
90	Jameson Taillon	CHC	HOU		11%
91	Javier Assad	CHC	@BOS
92	Zack Littell	TB	DET, @CWS
93	Martin Perez	PIT	@SF		49%
94	Landon Knack	LAD	@WAS		0%	0%
95	Trevor Rogers	MIA	@ATL
96	Tyler Anderson	LAA	BAL		19%
97	Joe Ross	MIL	@PIT, NYY		6%
98	Chris Bassitt	TOR	LAD
99	Mitchell Parker	WAS	@MIA		0%	0%
100	Cole Irvin	BAL	OAK		3%	37%
101	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	MIN		9%
102	Nick Martinez	CIN	@TEX		2%	30%
103	Tyler Alexander	TB	DET		0%	7%
104	Erick Fedde	CWS	@MIN, TB		41%
105	Luis Severino	NYM	@SF
106	Wade Miley	MIL	@PIT, NYY		8%
107	MacKenzie Gore	WAS	LAD
108	Kyle Gibson	STL	ARI		5%	47%
109	Griffin Canning	LAA	BAL		26%
110	Tanner Bibee	CLE	@ATL
111	Ben Lively	CLE	BOS, @ATL		0%	0%
112	Louie Varland	MIN	@LAA
113	Jake Irvin	WAS	LAD		0%	21%
114	Steven Matz	STL	ARI
115	Joe Boyle	OAK	@NYY		24%
116	Adrian Houser	NYM	STL		0%	19%
117	Chris Paddack	MIN	CWS, @LAA
118	Josh Winckowski	BOS	CHC		0%	0%
119	Logan Allen	CLE	@ATL		0%	0%
120	Miles Mikolas	STL	@NYM		13%
121	Jordan Wicks	CHC	HOU, @BOS		23%
122	Trevor Williams	WAS	@MIA		1%	14%
123	Gavin Stone	LAD	@TOR
124	Emerson Hancock	SEA	ARI		2%	25%
125	Cooper Criswell	BOS	@CLE		0%	5%
126	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	PHI
127	Albert Suarez	BAL	@LAA		0%	0%
128	Yariel Rodriguez	TOR	@KC
129	Paul Blackburn	OAK	@NYY, @BAL
130	Ryan Weathers	MIA	@ATL, WAS		21%
131	Colin Rea	MIL	NYY		4%
132	J.P. France	HOU	@CHC, @COL		10%
133	Nick Nastrini	CWS	TB		0%	9%
134	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	BOS		0%	14%
135	Ross Stripling	OAK	@BAL		1%	32%
136	Jonathan Cannon	CWS	@MIN, TB		0%	0%
137	Cal Quantrill	COL	HOU		0%	0%
138	Randy Vasquez	SD	@COL		0%	0%
139	Alex Wood	OAK	@NYY		0%	9%
140	Patrick Corbin	WAS	LAD, @MIA		0%	2%
141	Alec Marsh	KC	TOR		10%
142	Austin Gomber	COL	SD		1%	0%
143	Ryan Feltner	COL	SD		3%	23%
144	Hunter Brown	HOU	@COL
145	Matt Waldron	SD	@COL		3%
146	Dakota Hudson	COL	SD		0%	0%
147	Peter Lambert	COL	HOU		0%	0%
148	Michael Soroka	CWS	@MIN		4%	18%
149	Janson Junk	MIL	@PIT		0%	0%
150	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	@BOS		2%	23%
151	Quinn Priester	PIT	MIL		0%	2%
152	Tommy Henry	ARI	@STL		1%	2%
153	Ty Blach	COL	SD		1%	0%

American League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Tarik Skubal	DET	@TB, KC	Rewarding those trusting him as an ace
2	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	@LAA, OAK
3	Pablo Lopez	MIN	CWS, @LAA
4	Corbin Burnes	BAL	OAK
5	Tanner Houck	BOS	@CLE, CHC	28 K, 2 BB over 26 IP
6	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@TEX, ARI
7	Reid Detmers	LAA	BAL, MIN	23 K, 4 BB over last 17.2 IP
8	Bailey Ober	MIN	CWS	1.06 ERA and .65 WHIP with 16 K and 3 BB in 17 IP since… you know…
9	Joe Ryan	MIN	CWS
10	Nestor Cortes	NYY	OAK
11	Zach Eflin	TB	@CWS
12	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	CIN
13	Brady Singer	KC	TOR, @DET	Changes to pick mix appear to be working
14	Kutter Crawford	BOS	CHC
15	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	@KC, LAD
16	Kevin Gausman	TOR	@KC, LAD	Says shoulder is fine. Numbers don't agree
17	Marcus Stroman	NYY	OAK, @MIL
18	Ryan Pepiot	TB	DET
19	George Kirby	SEA	ARI	3.63 xFIP says be patient
20	Michael Wacha	KC	TOR, @DET
21	Bryce Miller	SEA	@TEX
22	Jose Berrios	TOR	@KC
23	Dane Dunning	TEX	SEA, CIN
24	Seth Lugo	KC	@DET
25	Brayan Bello	BOS	@CLE
26	Aaron Civale	TB	@CWS
27	Garrett Crochet	CWS	@MIN	Been really good or really bad. Will land in between, but closer to really good.
28	Justin Verlander	HOU	@CHC
29	Luis Castillo	SEA	@TEX	2.80 xFIP less than half of 5.82 ERA
30	Cole Ragans	KC	TOR
31	Jon Gray	TEX	SEA
32	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	OAK
33	Ronel Blanco	HOU	@CHC
34	Carlos Rodon	NYY	OAK, @MIL
35	Kenta Maeda	DET	@TB
36	Dean Kremer	BAL	@LAA
37	Michael Lorenzen	TEX	CIN
38	Jack Flaherty	DET	@TB
39	JP Sears	OAK	@NYY, @BAL
40	Reese Olson	DET	KC
41	Triston McKenzie	CLE	BOS
42	Casey Mize	DET	KC
43	Luis Gil	NYY	@MIL
44	Jose Soriano	LAA	MIN
45	Andrew Heaney	TEX	SEA
46	Zack Littell	TB	DET, @CWS
47	Tyler Anderson	LAA	BAL
48	Chris Bassitt	TOR	LAD
49	AL Reliever
50	Cole Irvin	BAL	OAK
51	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	MIN
52	Tyler Alexander	TB	DET
53	Erick Fedde	CWS	@MIN, TB
54	Griffin Canning	LAA	BAL
55	Tanner Bibee	CLE	@ATL
56	Ben Lively	CLE	BOS, @ATL
57	Louie Varland	MIN	@LAA
58	Joe Boyle	OAK	@NYY
59	Chris Paddack	MIN	CWS, @LAA
60	Josh Winckowski	BOS	CHC
61	Logan Allen	CLE	@ATL
62	Emerson Hancock	SEA	ARI
63	Cooper Criswell	BOS	@CLE
64	Albert Suarez	BAL	@LAA
65	Yariel Rodriguez	TOR	@KC
66	Paul Blackburn	OAK	@NYY, @BAL
67	J.P. France	HOU	@CHC, @COL
68	Nick Nastrini	CWS	TB
69	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	BOS
70	Ross Stripling	OAK	@BAL
71	Jonathan Cannon	CWS	@MIN, TB
72	Alex Wood	OAK	@NYY
73	Alec Marsh	KC	TOR
74	Hunter Brown	HOU	@COL
75	Michael Soroka	CWS	@MIN

National League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Zack Wheeler	PHI	@CIN
2	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@PIT
3	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	@TOR
4	Ranger Suarez	PHI	@CIN, @SD
5	Zac Gallen	ARI	@SEA
6	Sonny Gray	STL	@NYM	Opened season with 11 scoreless innings
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	@WAS
8	Aaron Nola	PHI	@SD
9	Jared Jones	PIT	MIL, @SF	23 K, with just 2 BB spanning first 23 IP
10	Logan Webb	SF	NYM	2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but 22 K in 30 IP a concern
11	Merrill Kelly	ARI	@SEA
12	Chris Sale	ATL	CLE
13	Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	MIA
14	Michael King	SD	@COL, PHI
15	Dylan Cease	SD	@COL, PHI
16	Nick Lodolo	CIN	PHI	16 K with 1 BB in 12 IP, welcome back!
17	Jordan Montgomery	ARI	@STL
18	Max Fried	ATL	MIA
19	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	WAS
20	Andrew Abbott	CIN	PHI, @TEX	Could be the week his actual 2.70 ERA moves towards 4.59 xFIP
21	Hunter Greene	CIN	PHI, @TEX
22	Jordan Hicks	SF	PIT
23	Keaton Winn	SF	NYM, PIT
24	Jose Quintana	NYM	@SF, STL
25	Spencer Turnbull	PHI	@CIN	3.61 xFIP says there is some luck to 1.23 ERA, but 3.61 is really good
26	Lance Lynn	STL	ARI, @NYM
27	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	@CIN	Walks a little high, but preseason buzz seemingly warranted
28	Edward Cabrera	MIA	WAS
29	Blake Snell	SF	NYM
30	Kyle Harrison	SF	PIT
31	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	@STL, @SEA
32	Shota Imanaga	CHC	HOU
33	Joe Musgrove	SD	PHI
34	Jose Butto	NYM	STL
35	Charlie Morton	ATL	CLE
36	Bailey Falter	PIT	MIL, @SF
37	James Paxton	LAD	@WAS, @TOR
38	Mitch Keller	PIT	MIL
39	Braxton Garrett	MIA	@ATL
40	Bryce Elder	ATL	MIA, CLE
41	Sean Manaea	NYM	@SF
42	Taijuan Walker	PHI	@SD
43	Jameson Taillon	CHC	HOU
44	Javier Assad	CHC	@BOS
45	Martin Perez	PIT	@SF
46	Landon Knack	LAD	@WAS
47	Trevor Rogers	MIA	@ATL
48	Joe Ross	MIL	@PIT, NYY
49	Mitchell Parker	WAS	@MIA
50	NL Reliever
51	Nick Martinez	CIN	@TEX
52	Luis Severino	NYM	@SF
53	Wade Miley	MIL	@PIT, NYY
54	MacKenzie Gore	WAS	LAD
55	Kyle Gibson	STL	ARI
56	Jake Irvin	WAS	LAD
57	Steven Matz	STL	ARI
58	Adrian Houser	NYM	STL
59	Miles Mikolas	STL	@NYM
60	Jordan Wicks	CHC	HOU, @BOS
61	Trevor Williams	WAS	@MIA
62	Gavin Stone	LAD	@TOR
63	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	PHI
64	Ryan Weathers	MIA	@ATL, WAS
65	Colin Rea	MIL	NYY
66	Cal Quantrill	COL	HOU
67	Randy Vasquez	SD	@COL
68	Patrick Corbin	WAS	LAD, @MIA
69	Austin Gomber	COL	SD
70	Ryan Feltner	COL	SD
71	Matt Waldron	SD	@COL
72	Dakota Hudson	COL	SD
73	Peter Lambert	COL	HOU
74	Janson Junk	MIL	@PIT
75	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	@BOS
76	Quinn Priester	PIT	MIL
77	Tommy Henry	ARI	@STL
78	Ty Blach	COL	SD