This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, April 30
YTD 36-44-1 (-7.30 units)
Prior article 2-2-1 ( -0.72 units)
DAILY SLATE NOTES
Power is down and the totals reflect this again. There are six line moves on totals that went down from the opening line today. Weather is only a factor in a couple of games, but there are a TON of games indoors so keep that in consideration.
I have been looking at more pitching props, specifically the recorded outs as a more predictive outcome. I would urge you to do the same as there are some key numbers to consider (15.0 and 18.0). I try to look at 15.5 - 17.5 lines when going over. The bet sizes will increase on pitching props today.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago Cubs 
at New York Mets 
We get Javier Assad on the mound for the Cubs against Sean Manaea for the Mets in this National League matchup. The total opened at 8.0 with juice on the UNDER and has sharply moved all the way to 7.0 with some juice on the OVER.
The public could be catching up to Assad, who has been one of the best values in baseball so far. He has gone UNDER his hits and earned runs allowed in five straight games. His last three starts have also gone UNDER the total. Going back 15 starts, Assad has gone UNDER 2.5 earned runs in 13 out of 15.
With the exception of the start against the Royals, Manaea has also pitched very well this year so we get two solid starting pitchers which should limit runs, but I am going away from the total as the value is gone and looking at Assad's props. I usually stay away from two-player props on the same player like this, but Assad's been so good and the line movement is significant.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Mets
- Javier Assad UNDER 2.5 earned runs for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -110)
- Javier Assad UNDER 4.5 hits allowed for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +110)
Kansas City Royals 
at Toronto Blue Jays
The Kansas City Royals are one of the toughest teams to strike out in baseball and have a 15 percent strikeout rate over the last 10 games. The reason I bring this up is the starting pitcher for the Jays is Jose Berrios, who just faced them on April 25. This usually favors the offense and I will play into that angle here.
While Berrios has pitched well this year, he does have a penchant for walks. Berrios has gone OVER this 1.5 walks allowed prop in four out of five, plus he just faced the Royals five days ago and allowed three walks. This line is low because the Royals' walk rate is just shy of seven percent in the last 10 days.
MLB Picks for Royals at Blue Jays
- Jose Berrios OVER 1.5 walks for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +110)
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Washington Nationals 
at Texas Rangers 
One of the things I look at first is what starting pitchers have an advantage in their matchup and are getting plus money. We get that with MacKenzie Gore versus Jon Gray. The edge goes to Gore here along with the Nationals, who are very tough on right-handed pitchers and have been solid on the road as underdogs. This line opened Rangers -160 and has moved to -145
Baseball is all about finding underdogs with value where they can win the game outright and we get that here with the Nationals, who just swept the Marlins in four straight.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Rangers
- Nationals ML for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +130)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Javier Assad UNDER 2.5 earned runs for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -110)
- Javier Assad UNDER 4.5 hits allowed for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +110)
- Jose Berrios OVER 1.5 walks for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Nationals ML for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +130)
- BONUS PROP - Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +110)
- 3-DOG PARLAY – Nationals, Cubs, Rockies for 0.25 units (DraftKings +882)
