This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for April 30th
Season record 7-7 -1.35 units
Ok the good news is, I am.500 on the season. The bad news is, sportsbooks like to make money, and thanks to the "juice" in all lines, I need to do better to turn an actual profit. So let's get started on that track today!
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Yankees vs. Orioles
The O's continue their lackluster play in 2025, though as I think we mention each week, they can mostly thank awful starting pitching for their plight. Their offense remains good, at least against righties where their 119 wRC+ ranks 5th in the league, and their .445 SLG is 4th best. Five left-handed bats should rejoin the lineup today including Ryan O'Hearn, who has had a great start to the season against righties, slashing .328/.400/.621 with 5 homers, 9 runs and 10 RBI's in just 65 PAs. Gunnar Henderson has started slowly by his standards, but it's all because he's just 4 for 36 against southpaws. Feed him a righty and he's as good as ever at .300/.352/.580.
Baltimore also gets a nice matchup as the Yankees will start Carlos Carrasco. He's had a terrific career, and he's truly a pitcher I like to root for. But at age 38 with severely diminished stuff, he just has trouble consistently getting major league hitters out these days. "Cookie" has a 5.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP so far, after putting up 5.64/1.40 in Cleveland last season, and 6.80/1.70 for the Mets in 2023. He's down to a super low 15.6% K%, so everything's in play. And he doesn't control contact well either, as you can see on his Statcast page.
Carrasco did pitch well his last time out, hurling 5 shutout innings vs. the Blue Jays on just 3 hits and 2 BB's. The 5 IP matches his longest outing of the year, as the Yankees really just ask him to get through the batting order twice and maybe a shade more.
I'm going to roll with Orioles batter Over props
MLB Best Bets
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 DraftKings)
Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125 DraftKings)
Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105 DraftKings)
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Angels at Mariners
Angel lefty Tyler Anderson has carved out a solid career as a mid-rotation soft-tossing lefty that can get a team some quality innings over the course of time. On a start-by-start or batter-by-batter basis, he has really underwhelmed. In fact, he almost always outpitches his ERA estimators. He has a 2.60 ERA vs, a pretty bad 4.92 SIERA early on this year, on the heels of 3.81 vs. 4.86 last season, and 2.57 vs. 4.04 across town for the Dodgers in 2022.
The only time the numbers kind of lined up recently was in 2023 when he had a 5.23 and 5.43 ERA. He also has had a K% of between 18.6% and 19.5% every season back to 2021. So it's really clear what we get here; a consistently meh skills pitcher that posts decent bottom line numbers. He's just always a bad BABIP sort of game from disaster though.
Despite all this, I like his K's Over prop. He's gone between 5 and 6 IP in each of his 5 starts this season, and struck out between 4 and 6 hitters in all but one of those starts. And he gets a favorable matchup here to land on the upside of his standard range. The Mariners have hit surprisingly well this season, as they have a 125 wRC+ that ranks 2nd in MLB. But they still strike out a lot. They carry a teamwide 24.2% K% at home, 4th worst in MLB, and their 28.7% K% vs. lefties is the worst in the league.
MLB Best Bets: Tyler Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135 DraftKings)
MLB Picks Recap
- Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 DraftKings)
- Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125 DraftKings)
- Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105 DraftKings)
- Tyler Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135 DraftKings)
