The Z Files: Sometimes, Crime Does Pay

Earlier this week during friend and colleague Paul Sporer's regular guest spot on the Tuesday RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, co-host Jeff Erickson brought up the notion of streaming hitters for stolen bases. Since this is a pet strategy of mine, my ears perked up. This is a tactic I have long championed and is the main reason a stolen base index is included in my Weekly Hitter Rankings. Now that we're about a quarter of the way into the 2022 campaign, it's time to identify player and team trends that can facilitate capturing those elusive bags.

Let's first examine the general stolen base landscape, then review pitcher and catcher numbers over the previous three seasons. Next, we'll check out team stats for this season before ending with some players to target to pad pilfers.

Here is a graph displaying steals per game from 2011.

Overall, steals have recovered a tad from as last season's nadir, but combined, teams are still collecting fewer than one stolen base per game.

To be honest, league-wide steals per game isn't useful for our fantasy squads. What matters is the distribution. Obviously, a smaller percentage of players contribute to a larger number of steals compared to the other counting stats, but it's helpful to have a grasp of the full picture.

One way to break it down is to count how many players are responsible for half of the total steals each season.

It's interesting to note that last season, that number was the highest it's been since 2011. In contrast, so far this season, steals are more concentrated than ever.

Another approach is to determine the percentage of overall steals contributed by the top-20 players in the category.

Unsurprisingly, the same trend appears here as the steals leaders account for a bigger share than last season. This can be interpreted in one of two ways. First, the 2022 inventory of players has more stolen base specialists, meaning it is harder to assemble a piecemeal roster of hitters who swipe bags here and there. Second, and more likely, more sources for steals will emerge, flattening the contribution of those dominating so far in 2022.

This hypothesis is easy to test by comparing what's transpired thus far to what occurred after a similar number of games last year. Sure enough, only 41 players were needed to accumulate half of the overall stolen bases at this time last season, compared to 64 by season's end. The early top-20 last season accounted for 26.4 percent of the overall total, three ticks higher than the final allocation. That is, stolen base threats emerged last season. While it doesn't guarantee that pattern will repeat, there is reason for optimism.

Now the question is, what teams and possibly players are best to target? Let's begin by focusing on the opposition to uncover batteries more susceptible to surrendering pilfers. Here is a list of every active catcher accruing at least 20 chances to throw out a would-be stealer since 2019.

The table can be sorted, but as posted, those at the top of the list should be avoided while the backstops at the bottom should be targeted for steals.

Here is a similar table for pitchers since 2019, with the filter being 150 innings over that span.

Like the previous table, please feel free to sort as desired, but as currently posted, avoid the arms at the top while picking on those at the end.

What about this season?

We're all looking at the same names, so everyone can draw their own conclusions, but I like checking out how the younger receivers are faring. Keibert Ruiz and Daulton Varsho are doing a good job controlling the running game while Joey Bart, Ryan Jeffers, Will Smith and Austin Nola are struggling.

Now the pitchers, sorted initially sorted by bags allowed:

This isn't brain surgery, but I'm more inclined to use a pitcher's history than the small sample of 2022, but I am willing to use 40 or so games to find susceptible catchers.

What teams are controlling the running game best so far this season (through Wednesday's action)?

Granted, the imbalanced schedule can skew results, but there is a huge discrepancy between the teams at either end.  I'll avoid the top 10 while targeting the bottom dozen or so when streaming for steals.

Note that four of the bottom 10 teams are in the NL West, with only Arizona absent. Targeting Diamondbacks could be a means to snake (ahem) some steals.

With that in mind, here is how the divisions line up thus far with respect to throwing out runners:

Overall, target runners in the AL Central and NL West while avoiding the NL East.

Speaking of streaming for steals, the twice-a-week hitter moves allowed in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is perfect for this ploy. Using a stolen base specialist for the whole week may not be desirable in today's landscape, as that sacrifices power and RBI for half the week. However, cleverly sliding stolen base contributors onto the active roster for a series against a team allowing runners to steal at an 80 percent clip will still allow you to pop in a power guy in the lineup for the other part of the week. This is one of the more underutilized strategies in the high stakes arena.

Before tabling some names to track, here are team stolen base totals. Sometimes running is contagious, so it behooves those searching for steals to note the clubs flashing the green light most often.

I'm more apt to focus on teams at the top of the list as opposed to avoiding teams at the bottom, though sometimes running is a managerial tendency. That said, if a player on one of the lower-ranked clubs draws a vulnerable battery, I won't hesitate to use that player.

Admittedly the research needs a refresh, but several years ago I investigated how early team results portended the rest of the season. While the correlation wasn't perfect, overall teams with an early success rate north of 75 percent ran more, while those falling short of 75 percent curtailed their attempts. This is in line with the 75 percent plateau commonly accepted as the break-even point according to the expected runs matrix. As such, the Angels could be in danger of dialing their attempts back, while the White Sox and Atlanta could pick up the pace (a trend that might dovetail nicely with the return of Ronald Acuna). 

Let's wrap things up with some players to target for steals. Some are obvious, while some are a bit under the radar.

Vidal Brujan, Rays: The club is running, and he could still challenge for the league lead in steals if he soon secures regular playing time.

Eli White, Rangers: Texas is also running a lot, with White's 8-for-8 mark bolstering the team's success on the basepaths. He's played almost every day this month and looks to be cementing a full-time gig.

Andres Gimenez, Guardians: Gimenez is settling in at the keystone. Look for him to run more now that he's more confident, not to mention getting on base at a .340 clip as opposed to last season's .282 mark, when he still was a perfect 11-for-11 on steals in only 68 games.

Josh Rojas, Diamondbacks: As indicated, the Diamondbacks are in the softest division when it comes to controlling the running game. The club has yet to take full advantage, but it's hard to imagine thatt continues much longer. Ketel Marte and Daulton Varsho are also candidates to slither into more bags.

Kevin Smith, Athletics: Call it a hunch, but after a slow start Smith is settling in, and it appears Oakland wants to give him a long look. The A's running and have two of the poorer teams at defending the steal in their division.

Roman Quinn, Phillies: Quinn is the perfect example of a stolen base streamer. You certainly don't want him in your lineup all week, but when the Phillies have a series against a vulnerable battery, he's a sneaky play. The only downside is that the NL East does a good job bagging would-be base stealers, which will limit optimal streaming opportunities.