Spring Training Job Battles: NL West

Our spring tour of the divisions concludes with a look at every spot that's up for grabs in the NL West. Previously, we covered the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East and NL Central. Ryan Boyer and I will be back with updates on how the job battles are evolving between now and Opening Day.

Note: the number in parenthesis is the player's NFBC ADP since 3/1

Arizona Diamondbacks

Fifth Starter: Ryne Nelson (640), Tommy Henry (741)

The Diamondbacks' depth chart is remarkably settled. Even shortstop, which could have been a battle between Geraldo Perdomo and 2021 sixth-overall pick Jordan Lawlar, has already been decided, with Perdomo the winner and Lawlar heading to the minors for now. The lone spot up for grabs is the final one in the rotation, though neither contestant will generate much fantasy interest outside of NL-only leagues. Nelson's 5.31 ERA in 29 appearances (27 starts) last season looks well-earned next to his 5.24 SIERA. His 15.5 percent strikeout rate means he didn't miss nearly enough bats to be an effective member of the rotation. That said, Henry's 16.8 percent strikeout rate in 17 games (16 starts) wasn't much better. His 4.15 ERA beat Nelson by a fair margin, but it also beat his own 5.29 SIERA by about the same amount.

Colorado Rockies

Center Field/Right Field: Brenton Doyle (568), Hunter Goodman (666), Sean Bouchard (670), Michael Toglia (undrafted), Sam Hilliard (undrafted), Bradley Zimmer (undrafted)

Anyone who earns a regular role at Coors Field has at least some fantasy appeal, but don't get carried away. Doyle played the most out of this uninspiring group last season (126 games), but while his 22 steals prevented his fantasy value from bottoming out, it came with just 10 homers, 48 runs, 48 RBI and a .203/.250/.343 slash line. His glove should give him the inside track on the Rockies' starting center fielder job, but he'll need to put a big dent in his awful 35.0 percent strikeout rate if he's going to take a step forward. Over in right, Bouchard seems to have the edge. He's heading into his age-28 season and has only 140 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while he owns a .991 OPS in that small sample, that comes with a .397 BABIP and zero steals.

That Doyle and Bouchard are the favorites says more about the rest of this group than anything else. Goodman hit .259/.338/.580 with 34 homers in 106 games across the upper two levels of the minors last year but hit .200/.247/.386 with one home run in his 23-game MLB debut. He may edge out the rest of the group in terms of having the most long-term upside, but he's no lock to break camp in the big leagues. Toglia owns an even worse .187/.246/.325 career major-league slash line, with his coming in 76 games. A 34.6 percent strikeout rate means he may never make enough contact to be regular. Hilliard is back in Colorado after being waived by both Atlanta and Baltimore over the winter. He's a career .215/.294/.424 hitter across parts of five seasons, though he can at least handle center field, unlike Bouchard, Goodman or Toglia. Zimmer is in camp as a non-roster invitee and will need his glove to overcome his lifetime .213/.298/.333 slash line if he's to win a roster spot. 

Fifth Starter: Peter Lambert (undrafted), Ryan Feltner (undrafted)

This battle is included for the sake of completeness, but the fact that neither of its participants have been selected in a single NFBC draft this March should be telling. (You probably don't want the first four starters in the Rockies' rotation either.) Both Lambert and Feltner made their big-league debuts in 2021 and have gone on to throw between 100 and 200 innings for the club since then. Both have career ERAs north of 6.00 and WHIPs north of 1.50. Both have struck out fewer than 20 percent of opposing batters. Even in an away game against a bottom-five lineup, you're unlikely to be excited about streaming either Lambert or Feltner, so there's almost no situation in which they need to be on your roster. 

Closer: Justin Lawrence (508), Tyler Kinley (654)

Before you read any further in this paragraph, ask yourself whether you really want to roster a closer who makes half his appearances at Coors Field and pitches for the worst team in the league. Odds are, the answer is no, in which case the winner of this battle doesn't matter very much. If you do happen to be desperate enough for saves that you'd consider rostering the Rockies closer, you'll want to leave the draft with one of these two, who are battling it out this spring. Lawrence's 11 saves last season leads all returning Rockies, and his 3.72 ERA was a good mark considering where the Rockies play their home games, but his underlying numbers aren't particularly closerish. His 23.9 percent strikeout rate wasn't much better than league average, while his 11.0 percent walk rate was poor. Kinley threw just 16.1 innings last season due to multiple elbow issues, but he saved five games in September, which could make him the favorite. His career strikeout rate (23.3 percent) and walk rate (11.1 percent) are a near match for Lawrence's marks from last season, however, so it's hard to consider him classic closer material. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Fifth/Sixth (?) Starter: Gavin Stone (565), Kyle Hurt (681), Ryan Yarbrough (687), Michael Grove (693)

The Dodgers may have one of the most loaded rosters in baseball, yet it's not clear who will make up the back end of their rotation to begin the season or even how many pitchers will be part of that group. In all likelihood, the team will mix and match throughout the season based on health and performance. Ignoring openers, 12 different Dodgers made a start last season, with eight pitchers making at least 10 and none making more than 24. The names on this list will be competing for one or two rotation spots at the start of the season, though those jobs could be temporary, with Emmett Sheehan (shoulder) looking like he may only miss a couple starts and Walker Buehler expected back from Tommy John surgery before too long. Clayton Kershaw (shoulder) and Dustin May (elbow) should return in the second half. Still, one or two members of this group will get a few chances to impress at the start of the year, which could well turn into a proper rotation spot the rest of the way if things break right. 

The frontrunner seems to be Stone. He has prospect pedigree, peaking at 25th on James Anderson's top-400 and currently sitting 74th, but he struggled to a 9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and 14.5 percent strikeout rate in 31 innings as a rookie swingman last year. Grove is the other favorite, even if the 27-year-old struggled to a 6.13 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 69 innings as a swingman last year. His strikeout rate (24.2 percent) and walk rate (6.3 percent) were both better than league average. Hurt's big-league experience is limited to a single relief appearance, but his 39.3 percent strikeout rate across the two highest levels of the minors last season offers plenty of promise. It came with an 11.3 percent walk rate, however, which lined up with his previous minor-league numbers. Yarbrough managed a 3.94 ERA over the first three years of his big-league career, but his ERA over the last three years sits at 4.80, so the Dodgers probably don't view the 32-year-old lefty as anything more than a depth option. 

San Diego Padres

Left Field/Center Field: Jackson Merrill (574), Jurickson Profar (719), Jose Azocar (733), Tucupita Marcano (751), Oscar Mercado (undrafted)

The Padres could end up with a league-average amount of WAR produced by their outfielders this season, but Fernando Tatis will probably earn nearly all of it. Merrill would be an interesting story if he makes the team, as the 20-year-old was almost exclusively a middle infielder in the minors and has only 46 Double-A games (and none at Triple-A) under his belt. He's a fast riser who makes a lot of contact, but he might not do enough of anything else to have much fantasy impact as a rookie. Profar came to the plate 521 times for the Padres last season and finished with just nine homers, one steal and a .242 batting average, indicating how little fantasy appeal he'l have even if he earns everyday at-bats in left. 

Azocar could be the center fielder if Merrill fails to earn the job. His 13 steals in 318 career plate appearances means he could help out in one category should he earn everyday at-bats, but he's a career .249/.292/.341 hitter entering his age-28 season. Marcano (age 24) has youth on his side, but he owns an even worse .217/.269/.320 slash line with just five homers and seven steals in 447 trips to the plate for his MLB career. He's also primarily an infielder, and all his outfield starts have come in a corner. Mercado is in camp as a non-roster invitee, and his ability to play center could earn him a roster spot and potentially more. He had a .761 OPS as a rookie back in 2019 but owns a .596 OPS in limited playing time over the last four years. 

Fourth/Fifth Starter: Jhony Brito (660), Randy Vasquez (681), Matt Waldron (739), Pedro Avila (750), Luis Patino (750)

Brito and Vasquez came over in the Juan Soto trade and could be the favorites, though neither was a particularly highly-rated prospect. Both saw action as a swingman with the Yankees last season, but neither impressed, provided you look at their peripherals and not Vasquez's small-sample 2.87 ERA. Vasquez had a 4.93 SIERA in 37.2 innings; Brito had a 4.51 SIERA in 90.1 frames. Waldron threw 41.1 innings for the Padres last season, mostly as a starter, and recorded a similar 4.73 SIERA. He's 27 years old and posted ERAs north of 7.00 at the Triple-A level in each of the last two seasons. Avila is the only member of this group with an above-average strikeout rate, though his 24.6 percent mark in 63.2 career innings isn't elite and comes with a poor 11.0 percent walk rate. He's also kept the ball on the ground 55.0 percent of the time, leading to a decent 4.10 SIERA. Patino debuted with the Padres as a 20-year-old with plenty of promise back in 2020 and was good enough to headline a trade for Blake Snell after that season. After struggling with the Rays and then the White Sox, he's back where his career began after being claimed off waivers in December. A visa delay meant he arrived late at camp, which may not leave him with enough time to build up to a starter's workload.

Closer: Robert Suarez (247), Yuki Matsui (304), Woo-suk Go (679), Wandy Peralta (738)

Suarez seemingly has the inside track on the Padres' closer job with Josh Hader leaving in free agency, though he isn't a lock to earn the role, nor are the Padres locks to even use a traditional closer. Injuries limited him to 27.2 innings last season, but he has a 2.99 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 75.1 career MLB frames. His 10.4 percent walk rate is high but hardly high enough to rule him out. His top competition would seem to be Matsui, who signed a five-year, $28 million deal in December after posting a 1.42 ERA and 36.4 percent strikeout rate over the last three seasons in Japan. With 236 NPB saves to his name, the lefty should be comfortable in the ninth inning, but he's been slowed by back troubles this spring. Go was also signed from overseas this winter and has plenty of closer experience from his time in Korea, but he was less dominant than Matsui and in a lower-quality league. Peralta has recorded 13 saves and a 2.96 ERA over the last three seasons, mostly with the Yankees. His 4.00 SIERA tells a different story, and he was worse than average in both strikeout rate (21.1 percent) and walk rate (10.2 percent) over that stretch. 

San Francisco Giants

Shortstop: Marco Luciano (643), Casey Schmitt (737), Nick Ahmed (750)

Ahmed has gone undrafted in all but one NFBC draft this month, yet he's the current leader for the Giants' shortstop job, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. His draft price should rise as a result, but if you're stuck with him in your lineup in even the deepest of leagues, you probably won't be happy about it. He'll turn 34 this week and has hit .219/.272/.336 over the last three seasons. He's little more than a steady hand on defense, but that gives him a leg up (for now) over the team's younger options. 22-year-old Luciano didn't do much in his 14-game cup of coffee last season and also struggled in a brief stop at Triple-A. Contact concerns and doubts about his ability to stick at shortstop have taken a large amount of the shine off what was once a very exciting prospect, and his 10 strikeouts through his first 20 plate appearances will make it very easy for the Giants to send him down. Schmitt is only 25 but already seems headed for a role as a utility infielder. He played second, third and short last year but struggled to a .580 OPS in 90 games as a rookie. 

Fourth/Fifth Starter: Keaton Winn (633), Sean Hjelle (undrafted), Spencer Howard (undrafted), Daulton Jefferies (undrafted)

Like the rival Dodgers, the Giants are likely to get creative with the back of their rotation. They're already getting creative in the middle, with converted reliever Jordan Hicks lining up to be the team's second or third starter. Alex Cobb is making good progress in his return from hip surgery and could show up in late April or early May, while Robbie Ray should return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, but until then, two of the names listed above should get at least a handful of starts. Winn made his debut last season but struggled to a 4.68 ERA in 42.1 innings. His 3.72 SIERA was encouraging, however, and he showed good control (4.7 percent walk rate) and kept the ball on the ground 58.0 percent of the time, offsetting a mediocre strikeout rate (20.3 percent). He's been slowed by elbow issues in camp and may not have time to ramp up by Opening Day, though he's expected to pitch Wednesday.

While Winn's fantasy appeal is modest at best, the other three contestants haven't even been drafted a single time in an NFBC draft this month. Hjelle has struggled to a 6.17 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 54 career major-league innings, all of which have come in relief. He was being considered for a move to the rotation, but a sprained UCL in his right elbow means he's currently shut down from throwing, likely taking him out of the mix. Injuries to Winn and Hjelle could mean the Giants start with a pair of non-roster invitees in the rotation. Howard is a 27-year-old who was once one of the top prospects in baseball, but he owns a 7.20 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 115 innings over parts of four seasons. Jefferies, 28, owns a 5.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 56.1 career MLB frames.