This article is part of our Sorare MLB series.
We're winding down May as we head to Memorial Day weekend, a time a lot of baseball fans use as the demarcation point for when to really start checking in when it comes to team records and player performances. Of course, I've already been keeping my eye on the performances across MLB to help you make your Sorare decisions, but I too like having more data. That helps when it comes to giving you my Upgrades, Holds and Downgrades. Your Sorare lineup could be soaring as May turns to June, and hopefully these recommendations will help you on that front.
Note: the number in parentheses is each player's last Limited Card sale price as of May 22.
Upgrades
Jordan Westburg, BAL ($46.89): Last year, the Orioles gave Westburg his first shot in MLB. His 68 games were promising, as he batted .260 and tallied 17 doubles. He had issues with his fellow righties, though, which were limiting. This season, Westburg is playing third base on the regular and has an .861 OPS against right-handed pitchers. That's helped him rack up Sorare points, and the Orioles have recently moved Westburg up the batting order against righties. If he's getting more plate appearances, he'll have more opportunity for those Sorare points in Baltimore's formidable lineup.
Hunter Renfroe, KC ($3.30): Renfroe has been in the "Things have to improve" category for a while, and indeed he had two double-digit Sorare point outings in the Royals' recent series with the Tigers. Renfroe has been a journeyman because he is a limited player, but he keeps getting opportunities because he has some skills. His main skill is power, as he's hit at least 20 homers in each of the last six full MLB seasons. As to this season, some say the rule of thumb is that BABIP tends to settle in at .300, but the truth is that there is some fluctuation for hitters on that front. Renfroe, for example, has a career .262 BABIP. This season, though, his BABIP is still all the way down at .162. A number in that range is unsustainable, and thus more improvement should be on the way.
DJ Stewart, NYM ($0.61): There are eight MLB players with a BB/K rate of 1.00 or higher who have played over 20 games. Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker need no introduction, but Stewart is among that octet of players as well. It's been almost a month since his last game with double-digit Sorare points, but he had 20.0 that day, and his discipline has been impressive. Now, Stewart does not play against his fellow lefties, because he is not viable there. Against righties, though, he has an .867 OPS since joining the Mets last year, so count on him seeing time in those matchups.
Taj Bradley, TAM ($12.43): Bradley just allowed five runs over 7.0 innings against the Red Sox in his last start. He also picked up 28.0 Sorare points, his highest across three starts. How? Because he had 10 strikeouts against zero walks. Bradley struggled as a rookie in his age-22 season, but it seems that a leap may be in the offing. The righty has a 4.00 ERA, but a 3.41 FIP and a 2.67 xFIP. His K/BB rate is a staggering 7.67, and his swinging strike rate is a robust 15.7 percent. Bradley's big fastball means homers will be part of the package, because when a big fastball is squared up it tends to go far, but his overall profile is promising.
Holds
Carlos Correa, MIN ($18.75): Hey, remember Carlos Correa? You know, the all-star shortstop? Leaving Houston for Minnesota, and dealing with injuries, seems to have left him out of sight, out of mind. Well, let me remind you that in 2022, his first year as a Twin, he had an .833 OPS with 22 homers in 136 games, and even when he struggled and hit .230 last year he tallied 18 homers. This season, Correa's bounced back in a big way, as his seven games with double-digit Sorare points in May indicate. What I really like is his 31.8 percent line-drive rate, as well as his .889 OPS over the last two weeks.
Dylan Cease, SD ($15.24): Cease is coming off his worst start of the season, Atlanta tuned him up, but that makes this a good time to remind you to hold steady. He had 4.5 Sorare points against Atlanta, but that's his only outing with single-digit Sorare points, whereas he has three games with over 30. In his final year with the White Sox, Cease did have a 4.58 ERA, but that came with a 3.72 FIP. This season he's back to over 11 strikeouts per nine innings, his walks are down, and his 3.05 ERA is paired with a 2.83 FIP. By the way, he actually has a 4.03 ERA at Petco Park thus far, and that park tends to be friendly to pitchers. Cease could be even better going forward.
Downgrades
Randy Arozarena, TAM ($20.08): Arozarena has had three 20/20 seasons in a row, and he has eight home runs and seven stolen bases this year. So it's been business as usual, right? Not at all. He's actually batted .162, and also alarmingly slugged .324. The Rays outfielder had three homers in a week earlier in May, but since then he has zero homers and zero steals, and his Sorare points have been unremarkable as a result. In fact, in the two weeks since that last homer, he has a .613 OPS.
Ezequiel Duran, TEX ($4.05): Duran has batted .284 and has a .351 OBP, and he's been playing regularly due to injuries. However, it has been an empty-calorie campaign. The utilityman has two extra-base hits, both doubles, which is partially why he has more games with negative Sorare points than games with double-digit Sorare points. All that, and he's been lucky as well. Duran has a .397 BABIP, which will be quite hard to sustain.
James Paxton, LAD ($7.14): You may see some of Paxton's numbers, including his Sorare point totals, and think, "Welp, another pitcher has joined the Dodgers and that Dodger magic has helped them improve." Not so fast! Yes, Paxton has a 2.84 ERA, but that comes with a 5.14 FIP. In his age-35 season, his fastball velocity has dropped from 95.3 mph last year to 93.5 mph this season. Most concerningly, Paxton has managed a paltry 4.87 strikeouts per nine innings. That won't fly in the long run.
